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Tesla existential threat?

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Old 02-27-2018, 05:28 PM
  #16  
F1CrazyDriver
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For DD, to drive yourself, a Tesla is the best car. Anyone who says different has not spent enough time in one or plane, hating.
I have a signature S - i was converted many moons ago. it's not my car of choice on weekends for a sprinted drive. chose the right tool for the right job.
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Old 02-28-2018, 12:43 AM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by F1CrazyDriver View Post
For DD, to drive yourself, a Tesla is the best car. Anyone who says different has not spent enough time in one or plane, hating.
I have a signature S - i was converted many moons ago. it's not my car of choice on weekends for a sprinted drive. chose the right tool for the right job.
Fortunately there are many choices out there .........and in the US the vehicle that zips off the shelf is the F150. The reality is vehicles are used for many reasons. Also, to be frank - over here the P95 costs about $190k and doesn't have good fit and finish (the plain truth is they are shoddy). A 50K Mazda 6 is a better proposition for most people (and is far better made too).

Its not enough for a car to be an EV, it still has to do what a car does and make economic sense to the buyer. Economic sense means purchase price and factoring in additional costs e.g. power walls, solar panels, space and location of chargers etc.

The Porsche business plan is smart - be a fast follower, watch and learn from the mistakes of others, don't over promise and under deliver and most importantly find the right price point for the product to ensure the company remains viable.

The other very important point that Porsche seems to fully understand is the EV is a long way from a mass market vehicle (e.g. what are the F150 buyers going to do). There are an awful lot of people on struggle street, that can at best, afford very low end second hand ice vehicles. I think some EV owners would do well to understand this.

Personally I think Tesla are toast - from a business perspective it appears you can't trust Musk e.g. failed to meet guidance 20 times........

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Old 02-28-2018, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by wogamax
[QUOTE=dgjks6;14830339]Agree the model S is a great car. Agree electricity is coming. Lots of friends have Teslas. But they all still have a real car also. In CA may be able to have just an electric for most situations. But here in Ohio - with weather, range, and limited charging stations they are still years away.


Unable to charge at home? Ohio looks good: supercharge.info

If Porsche chases drivers, they'll do fine. Tesla's focus is passengers, but handling a big skateboard battery can make up for that.[/quote]

If that's the case it must be focused on the niche market of short passengers given the lack of room in the backseat of the Model S.

The Model S is already plateauing and it's going to get destroyed by competition over the next few years if there isn't a massive redesign coming in the near term.
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:14 PM
  #19  
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Tesla is a donut. Should collapse entirely within 14 months of this post.

Cheers
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:22 PM
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Originally Posted by TonyTwoBags
Tesla is a donut. Should collapse entirely within 14 months of this post.

Cheers
You guys are funny. There is infinite capital for what he does as long as he - eventually - delivers, which he has done consistently if late. Go drive the cars or have someone explain to you boring, spacex and battery positioning and roadmap.

Yeah he consumes capital in building products. Who cares?

The only thing that matters is the product. You guys are missing the point. $TSLA shorts and one line Musk/Tesla haters are literally an infinite source of bemused entertainment.

Put your money where your mouth is and go ahead, short the stock in size.

Yeah. That's what I thought.....
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:26 PM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by urbanscribe View Post
You guys are funny. There is infinite capital for what he does as long as he - eventually - delivers, which he has done consistently if late. Go drive the cars or have someone explain to you boring, spacex and battery positioning and roadmap.

Yeah he consumes capital in building products. Who cares?

The only thing that matters is the product. You guys are missing the point. $TSLA shorts and one line Musk/Tesla haters are literally an infinite source of bemused entertainment.

Put your money where your mouth is and go ahead, short the stock in size.

Yeah. That's what I thought.....
He has failed to deliver to guidance - 20 times. "Infinite capital" isn't available to Tesla. Go and have a look the SEC filings.

Battery positioning........SpaceX..........Roadmap........I suspect you feel Musk is some sort of a visionary
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Old 02-28-2018, 11:48 PM
  #22  
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I've driven the Tesla S and it is really nice. Silent and quick, plus the build quality is excellent. But the cars vs the stock are two very different things. I have owned the stock and it has been quite profitable and my current thoughts are that he cars are great, but the capital burn rate to volume of production (revenue) does not come close to being a profitable venture. Yet...

Without any doubt, there will be a dilutive share offering at Tesla within the next two years. I do not want to be in the stock when that happens. I do want to get back in after the dilution.

Personally, I want the company to succeed as an automobile manufacturer and provide their solar roofing tiles and power storage units, it's a great dream.

Can't wait for the Mission E as well to see how Porsche pushed their creativity. It's a great time to be a car enthusiast!
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Old 03-01-2018, 12:08 AM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by urbanscribe
You guys are funny. There is infinite capital for what he does as long as he - eventually - delivers, which he has done consistently if late. Go drive the cars or have someone explain to you boring, spacex and battery positioning and roadmap.

Yeah he consumes capital in building products. Who cares?

The only thing that matters is the product. You guys are missing the point. $TSLA shorts and one line Musk/Tesla haters are literally an infinite source of bemused entertainment.

Put your money where your mouth is and go ahead, short the stock in size.

Yeah. That's what I thought.....
You never short against a cult, particularly one of personality. I think Bill Ackman is a perfect example.

But yes Mr. Haney, I mean Elon Musk seems to be able to convince investors to keep giving him money. As far as 'delivers'? He hasn't delivered a positive CFROI on any of his businesses yet and it remains to be seen whether he ever will.
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Old 03-01-2018, 09:22 AM
  #24  
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I don't feel about my investments, about CEOs or about business.

Let's look at where the core arbitrage is across the businesses, shall we

UTA is a monopoly combining the two largest aerospace companies as sole bidder for govt contracts. Better engineering, competition and more importantly Reusability offer a 50% cost advantage to the new proven entrant.

ICE engines (let's exclude the Porsche, Ferrari and Mazda's) and end of life complexity monstrosities which cost over $1B to develop at minimum incremental gain against collapsing regulation. An electric motor has four parts, a stator, a rotor, an invertor and an ECU, fundamentals of which are 100+ years old. Moving parts is -95%. Drivetrain life is over 1MM miles. Maintenance is half and going down.

Energy. Yeah. -7% mini moores law over the last 20 years on solar capture and storage is not slowing down. Solar is within 30% cost of cheapest fossil fuel. Reduces infrastructure investment in T&D and generation in the system. Plentiful. Endless supply.

So yeah. Who cares about ROCE, EV to EBITDA, or burn rate during the 5-10 years it takes to play out the arb. Each of these markets are half a trillion addressable worldwide? So yeah, as long as he delivers (rockets fly and land, cars run on the road, solar gets installed) he's gonna get capital (or "bailed out" if you prefer)

Have a few legacy shares which cover my initial investment years ago when the S came out. I'm not saying the stock is a good investment. No opinion.

I'm holding two perhaps inconsistent to you thoughts in my brain that my TTS is a thing of beauty and Tesla is attacking big opportunities.

But come to the discussion with better arguments than K and Qs and EPS guidance. It's the forest, friend.

And as always,
The people who care don't matter. The people who matter don't care.
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Old 03-01-2018, 10:54 AM
  #25  
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If helpful here is a pretty good summary from Stanford. This is what the people writing these checks believe.

https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...ort_051517.pdf
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Old 03-01-2018, 04:49 PM
  #26  
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This still going? Anyway, to clarify, I did say Teslas are great cars. By DD I meant only car. Don't know anyone that has done it. And if you do great. For 90% of my driving tests would be perfect. But travel, busy days, etc, won't work here. Closest rapid charging is 25 min from my house. So during the winter when go long distances need an alternative

For example. Race a Tesla and any other car from Akron to New York or DC then the tesla looses by hours. Not as bad as it was when raced against the model T a couple years ago. But still not like a regular car.

I do think electric is the future. FUTURE. Not here yet and not close. 10 years? Nope. 20? Maybe. 50 years? For sure. But by then I don't care

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Old 03-02-2018, 12:15 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by urbanscribe View Post
You guys are funny. There is infinite capital for what he does as long as he - eventually - delivers, which he has done consistently if late. Go drive the cars or have someone explain to you boring, spacex and battery positioning and roadmap.

Yeah he consumes capital in building products. Who cares?

The only thing that matters is the product. You guys are missing the point. $TSLA shorts and one line Musk/Tesla haters are literally an infinite source of bemused entertainment.

Put your money where your mouth is and go ahead, short the stock in size.

Yeah. That's what I thought.....
I will stay out of the Tesla vs. Porsche debate. You may want to look up the definition of "infinite". There is no such thing as infinite capital.
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Old 03-02-2018, 08:36 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by urbanscribe View Post
I don't feel about my investments, about CEOs or about business.

Let's look at where the core arbitrage is across the businesses, shall we

UTA is a monopoly combining the two largest aerospace companies as sole bidder for govt contracts. Better engineering, competition and more importantly Reusability offer a 50% cost advantage to the new proven entrant.

ICE engines (let's exclude the Porsche, Ferrari and Mazda's) and end of life complexity monstrosities which cost over $1B to develop at minimum incremental gain against collapsing regulation. An electric motor has four parts, a stator, a rotor, an invertor and an ECU, fundamentals of which are 100+ years old. Moving parts is -95%. Drivetrain life is over 1MM miles. Maintenance is half and going down.

Energy. Yeah. -7% mini moores law over the last 20 years on solar capture and storage is not slowing down. Solar is within 30% cost of cheapest fossil fuel. Reduces infrastructure investment in T&D and generation in the system. Plentiful. Endless supply.

So yeah. Who cares about ROCE, EV to EBITDA, or burn rate during the 5-10 years it takes to play out the arb. Each of these markets are half a trillion addressable worldwide? So yeah, as long as he delivers (rockets fly and land, cars run on the road, solar gets installed) he's gonna get capital (or "bailed out" if you prefer)

Have a few legacy shares which cover my initial investment years ago when the S came out. I'm not saying the stock is a good investment. No opinion.

I'm holding two perhaps inconsistent to you thoughts in my brain that my TTS is a thing of beauty and Tesla is attacking big opportunities.

But come to the discussion with better arguments than K and Qs and EPS guidance. It's the forest, friend.

And as always,
The people who care don't matter. The people who matter don't care.
Hey, I am interested: You mentioned arbitrage... What are the trades you would do to access the arbitrage you see? If one of them is to be long BEV manufacturers (or soon to be ones), would you choose Tesla over (say Porsche, Toyota or Nio), and why?

Personally I am excited by BEVs and I was long Tesla for a good bit, but after the last earnings report I flattened out my position and now have a modest long-dated put option position. However, I am long in a variety of other companies related to electric vehicles etc. So, not a hater, but curious about your specific views.

I think Tesla's very difficult (and worsening) operating condition is going to make it more difficult for them to keep ahead of the coming competition. Yes, you have to see the forest, but one must still be aware of the tree that might fall on them! :-)
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Old 03-02-2018, 08:53 PM
  #29  
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TSLA is a flat. Maybe sell volatility against it.

BEV super capital intensive and few well financed core patented players. Plus the play now is sectorial tech against all industrials. Winter coming.
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Old 03-03-2018, 09:18 AM
  #30  
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Great thread & listening in...
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