Tesla existential threat?
08-07-2018, 06:01 PM
#151
Opex isn't decreasing; it was up over 7% quarter on quarter. And Tesla's capex needs are only going to increase, massively, in order to execute of any of the vehicles currently in development. I do think Tesla's going to survive, simply because of the deep pockets currently in the fold of the cult, but it is highly unlikely that it will ever offer a sufficient cash on cash return to justify it's valuation in our lifetimes.
08-07-2018, 09:28 PM
#152
Opex isn't decreasing; it was up over 7% quarter on quarter. And Tesla's capex needs are only going to increase, massively, in order to execute of any of the vehicles currently in development. I do think Tesla's going to survive, simply because of the deep pockets currently in the fold of the cult, but it is highly unlikely that it will ever offer a sufficient cash on cash return to justify it's valuation in our lifetimes.
Long term they need much more cash, they're simply hoping most of it comes from the $2 billion per year cash the M3 is designed to spin out (at 30% margin and 10k cars per year) rather than investor dollars when they are close to the cliff. That's the way the game works- reach your value creation milestone (prove the M3 makes money) before you do your next raise.
Personally I agree it's overvalued as I've said. But the guys making the money are consistently those betting against the shorts. I'm actually very close to the company- I know one of the founders, know some early and current engineers and we've hired guys that used to work their. I underestimated them myself multiple times knowing some of the huge screw-ups they made. That said everyone predicting doom and gloom fundamentally doesn't understand the company, or in many cases startups in general. In my opinion...
Picked up my M3D a few hours ago, will report back with more impressions. First pass they have not addressed all the quality issues- one panel gap and 2 weather seals need addressing. Relatively minor issues in that you need to be looking, but it's still worse fit and finish than any new car I've owned.
08-07-2018, 10:28 PM
#153
Musk just tweeted he wants to take the company private...........before the company went into a trading halt...............you don't want to get caught holding private stock, its very difficult to get your money out in that situation.
If theres a $USD72b offer on the table he needs to cough it up now and pay existing holders out. Without the offer it looks like market manipulation. The SEC should be on to this - there is no time for excuses.
The only reason Musk wants to go private is to avoid scruitny and in order to stop answering to and acting in the best interest of all shareholders. I doubt there is any single entity will to pay 72 billion for Tesla - if they make that offer any existing shareholders should take the price and hug the bidder.
If there is no bidder - this is outright market manipulation, when a bid is made its nearly always made through the chairman, the company goes into a trading halt and an announcement is made.
If theres a $USD72b offer on the table he needs to cough it up now and pay existing holders out. Without the offer it looks like market manipulation. The SEC should be on to this - there is no time for excuses.
The only reason Musk wants to go private is to avoid scruitny and in order to stop answering to and acting in the best interest of all shareholders. I doubt there is any single entity will to pay 72 billion for Tesla - if they make that offer any existing shareholders should take the price and hug the bidder.
If there is no bidder - this is outright market manipulation, when a bid is made its nearly always made through the chairman, the company goes into a trading halt and an announcement is made.
Last edited by groundhog; 08-07-2018 at 10:45 PM.
08-08-2018, 01:27 PM
#154
A buyout at $72 billion, if it is real, is beyond nuts and would be ridiculously expense to finance in real terms, but it would prove what many of us have been saying all along. There are very deep pockets aligned with the cult of Tesla and betting against such a well financed cult is extremely risky. Particularly when the 'private' funding isn't really private at all, but quasi governmental. Personally, I really hope he is able to take Tesla private for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that we won't be constantly be bombarded with Tesla news.
08-08-2018, 01:28 PM
#155
Picked up my M3D a few hours ago, will report back with more impressions. First pass they have not addressed all the quality issues- one panel gap and 2 weather seals need addressing. Relatively minor issues in that you need to be looking, but it's still worse fit and finish than any new car I've owned.
08-08-2018, 03:00 PM
#156
08-08-2018, 04:10 PM
#157
That's not too bad. I'm not a big fan of the looks/fit finish, but I'm going to actually drive one before I pass judgement on the car. Hopefully the local dealer will have one to test drive at some point.
08-08-2018, 06:18 PM
#158
Rennlist Member
That's not too bad. I'm not a big fan of the looks/fit finish, but I'm going to actually drive one before I pass judgement on the car. Hopefully the local dealer will have one to test drive at some point.
this link will get you a test drive link - and if you choose to order (unlikely I know) unlimited lifetime supercharging for you S, X or Model 3
I get no money but can get Tesla swag if someone completes an order using my referring - i.e. I'm not going to get rich or otherwise, but might get a nice Tesla Jacket out of the deal.
http://ts.la/david7673
https://www.tesla.com/drive?model=m3
the 18" aero wheels actually look decent if you remove the plastic aero covers (they apparently snap right off) - the extra range is inconsequential unless you are hyper-miling for distance - but I think they look ugly with the aero-covers on - Tesla even sells a kit to cover the lug bolts and have a center hole cover if you remove the aero-covers - smaller wheels also offer greater range and better ride due to the bigger side wall…
https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product...l-cap-kit.html
$50 for the kit is way cheaper than porsche for the center cap cover - LOL
as a side note - anyone can "war game" a Model 3 configuration now - the ordering process is open to anyone - so you can play with your own Model 3 configuration and get the MSRP by going to Tesla's website and simply checking different options on the configuration builder.
Last edited by daveo4porsche; 08-08-2018 at 06:39 PM.
08-08-2018, 06:37 PM
#159
Rennlist Member
I Long Range premium interior (49k), Black ($0), Dual Motor ($4k at the time, now 5), 19" wheels ($1.5). $54.5k.
08-08-2018, 07:37 PM
#160
It's a liability at this point IMHO in that it gives you a false sense of confidence. If I need to give the car my full attention I might as well drive myself, which frankly I don't mind at all. I'll re-evaluate after they get the new chips or they figure out a way to demagnetize center dividers...
08-08-2018, 08:10 PM
#161
Some further impressions of the M3D I picked up yesterday.
Interior is mixed in terms of quality. The upper dash is its lowest quality feature: shiny in the sun, clearly not up to Audi materials standards. Other parts of the interior are better than Audi, some much better. The layout with a landing pad for a smartphone is very good, seats are great, driving position very good if a little high for my taste. Some things around technology are light-years ahead of current Porsche/ Audi. Programming my garage door opener took just a couple easy minutes with simple step by step instruction on the big display rather than the owners manual. In comparison I went through a fight to do both the Porsche and the Audi in the last few months. The Nav is great, far better than the Germans and better than Waze or Google Maps on the phone. Most technology aspects echo Apple (obviously, as Tesla stole quite a few members of that team). Interior wise it's hard to compare because it's so different, but it does lag behind other aspects of the car, and targeted materials upgrades would make it feel 5k more expensive, despite the wood and suede feeling nice. I seem to be adapting to the center display quickly, though I'll reserve comment until I've spent more time with it.
Performance wise the car is almost shockingly quick real-world for the non P model. On paper the Audi S3 is similarly quick (0-60 in 4.6 instead of 4.5). Real world there is no comparison, the M3D is massively faster. First you need to realize that the Audi figure is with launch control: come to a complete stop with the car warm and all systems in the right settings (which takes 20 seconds), then two foot the brake + gas to build boost (another 5-10 seconds as it considers), look like a moron as you're revving waiting for the light to change, then go... 4.6 seconds. Or miss any one of those steps and wait for the DCT to smoothly let the clutch out, etc, and it's 6.5 seconds to 60 if you're lucky. In the M3D it's <4.5 seconds every time, and the traction control seems so unflappable that you can nail it making a sharp right turn from a red light and it'll still launch.
Perhaps a better real world example of its quickness is 45-65 mph, matting the throttle from a cruise to go for a gap. In the Audi S3 the DCT kicks down, the revs flair, the boost builds and then you go. Consumer Reports of all places tests this, so there are some good references. Examples: the BMW 530i automatic clocks in at 4.9 seconds. The DCT VW GTI is 3.8 seconds (similar to the S3). BMW 240i 6 speed = 3.6, 2018 Corvette manual = 3.1, 2018 Carrera = 3.0. They tested the Model 3 two wheel drive at 2.9, and I (poorly, by hand) timed my M3D at 2.1 seconds this morning. I’m sure that’s wrong, but the point is that through the right speed range it’s probably better considered properly fast instead of simply “quick”. That was frankly surprising.
Handling is tight, body roll is low, ride is surprisingly good compared to what I was expecting. Better than the S3, probably because I opted for the 19” wheels, which apparently run at lower pressure and improve the ride and handling but cut range significantly.
There are dim spots that I need to explore further which hurt it as a driver’s car. #1 on that list is the regenerative braking. It’s inconsistent, in that when you snap out of the throttle the computer rolls the regen in to smooth things out. Sometimes it rolls in quite slowly, other times it comes in relatively fast. In a straight line it’s not all that noticeable, but as you’re cornering close to the limit it certainly is. Heavy regen tucks the nose smartly, tightening the line and letting you play with cornering attitude. Unfortunately because it's inconsistent you’re not sure exactly sure how much line tightening to expect, even as you play with the throttle within a single corner. I’ll look into it further, but it certainly seems more tuning is required. That said my initial overall impression is very positive, and it’s got the making of a seriously good sport sedan with enough the real world point to point speed (through all conditions) to embarrass many real sports cars. Fun factor however is still TBD, and I’m still not sure I could give up the noise of an ICE engine or rowing my own gears this was my only car. The 991.2 GT3 more than scratches that itch, but if it didn’t as good as the Tesla seems I think it’d be a tough sell…
Interior is mixed in terms of quality. The upper dash is its lowest quality feature: shiny in the sun, clearly not up to Audi materials standards. Other parts of the interior are better than Audi, some much better. The layout with a landing pad for a smartphone is very good, seats are great, driving position very good if a little high for my taste. Some things around technology are light-years ahead of current Porsche/ Audi. Programming my garage door opener took just a couple easy minutes with simple step by step instruction on the big display rather than the owners manual. In comparison I went through a fight to do both the Porsche and the Audi in the last few months. The Nav is great, far better than the Germans and better than Waze or Google Maps on the phone. Most technology aspects echo Apple (obviously, as Tesla stole quite a few members of that team). Interior wise it's hard to compare because it's so different, but it does lag behind other aspects of the car, and targeted materials upgrades would make it feel 5k more expensive, despite the wood and suede feeling nice. I seem to be adapting to the center display quickly, though I'll reserve comment until I've spent more time with it.
Performance wise the car is almost shockingly quick real-world for the non P model. On paper the Audi S3 is similarly quick (0-60 in 4.6 instead of 4.5). Real world there is no comparison, the M3D is massively faster. First you need to realize that the Audi figure is with launch control: come to a complete stop with the car warm and all systems in the right settings (which takes 20 seconds), then two foot the brake + gas to build boost (another 5-10 seconds as it considers), look like a moron as you're revving waiting for the light to change, then go... 4.6 seconds. Or miss any one of those steps and wait for the DCT to smoothly let the clutch out, etc, and it's 6.5 seconds to 60 if you're lucky. In the M3D it's <4.5 seconds every time, and the traction control seems so unflappable that you can nail it making a sharp right turn from a red light and it'll still launch.
Perhaps a better real world example of its quickness is 45-65 mph, matting the throttle from a cruise to go for a gap. In the Audi S3 the DCT kicks down, the revs flair, the boost builds and then you go. Consumer Reports of all places tests this, so there are some good references. Examples: the BMW 530i automatic clocks in at 4.9 seconds. The DCT VW GTI is 3.8 seconds (similar to the S3). BMW 240i 6 speed = 3.6, 2018 Corvette manual = 3.1, 2018 Carrera = 3.0. They tested the Model 3 two wheel drive at 2.9, and I (poorly, by hand) timed my M3D at 2.1 seconds this morning. I’m sure that’s wrong, but the point is that through the right speed range it’s probably better considered properly fast instead of simply “quick”. That was frankly surprising.
Handling is tight, body roll is low, ride is surprisingly good compared to what I was expecting. Better than the S3, probably because I opted for the 19” wheels, which apparently run at lower pressure and improve the ride and handling but cut range significantly.
There are dim spots that I need to explore further which hurt it as a driver’s car. #1 on that list is the regenerative braking. It’s inconsistent, in that when you snap out of the throttle the computer rolls the regen in to smooth things out. Sometimes it rolls in quite slowly, other times it comes in relatively fast. In a straight line it’s not all that noticeable, but as you’re cornering close to the limit it certainly is. Heavy regen tucks the nose smartly, tightening the line and letting you play with cornering attitude. Unfortunately because it's inconsistent you’re not sure exactly sure how much line tightening to expect, even as you play with the throttle within a single corner. I’ll look into it further, but it certainly seems more tuning is required. That said my initial overall impression is very positive, and it’s got the making of a seriously good sport sedan with enough the real world point to point speed (through all conditions) to embarrass many real sports cars. Fun factor however is still TBD, and I’m still not sure I could give up the noise of an ICE engine or rowing my own gears this was my only car. The 991.2 GT3 more than scratches that itch, but if it didn’t as good as the Tesla seems I think it’d be a tough sell…
Last edited by Petevb; 08-08-2018 at 08:36 PM.
08-08-2018, 08:19 PM
#162
Rennlist Member
I'd consider auto-pilot which adds "adaptive" cruise control which as a feature is wonderful and pretty rock solid - having auto-pilot doesn't require you to use it - and you can engage the adaptive cruise control separately from the lane-keeping/auto-steering...you don't have to engage the auto-steering function - I've had it for about 3 years and the problems and "mistakes" are overblown by a few semi-accurate headlines…the vast vast vast 99.9% of the time it's a real pleasure to use - especially in stop/go traffic when it can't get into much trouble creeping at 5 mph…
but I understand your concern - good news is you can enable the feature via an OTA update by simply giving Tesla your money
wait until you get your first OTA update where Tesla adds a really cool feature and then compare it to Porsche/Audi- the germans have a very very long ways to go.
the numbers lie - EV's are so quick/fast when driving them that you really can't compare them to ICE cars - they have ruined me for gas cars. I got in my Cupcar 2 years ago after 3 months being away from it and 2 things happened:
enjoy the car - I can't wait to try out a Taycan - if Porsche does it right we're all in for joyful surprises.
but I understand your concern - good news is you can enable the feature via an OTA update by simply giving Tesla your money
wait until you get your first OTA update where Tesla adds a really cool feature and then compare it to Porsche/Audi- the germans have a very very long ways to go.
the numbers lie - EV's are so quick/fast when driving them that you really can't compare them to ICE cars - they have ruined me for gas cars. I got in my Cupcar 2 years ago after 3 months being away from it and 2 things happened:
- the throttle lag drove me nuts for the first few minutes
- I about lost it turn 2 on the out lap at thunderhill while I was waiting for the regen braking to kick in…
enjoy the car - I can't wait to try out a Taycan - if Porsche does it right we're all in for joyful surprises.
Last edited by daveo4porsche; 08-08-2018 at 08:38 PM.
08-08-2018, 08:57 PM
#163
Burning Brakes
I'd consider auto-pilot which adds "adaptive" cruise control which as a feature is wonderful and pretty rock solid - having auto-pilot doesn't require you to use it - and you can engage the adaptive cruise control separately from the lane-keeping/auto-steering...you don't have to engage the auto-steering function - I've had it for about 3 years and the problems and "mistakes" are overblown by a few semi-accurate headlines…the vast vast vast 99.9% of the time it's a real pleasure to use - especially in stop/go traffic when it can't get into much trouble creeping at 5 mph…
Yes, I can't wait for the coming models in the Mission E line-up, and I'm eager to see what other manufacturers come up with the in the next few years also, to compete in this category.
08-08-2018, 09:19 PM
#164
Rennlist Member
yes - you get "normal" cruise control (not adaptive) if you don't get auto-pilot…
08-08-2018, 09:21 PM
#165
Rennlist Member
I posted screen shots of what what is "included" standard which is called auto-pilot - for which it is neither "auto" or "pilot" - and enhanced autopilot - which adds features - the most useful of which is "traffic aware cruise control" - or what other's call adaptive cruise control - it matches the speed of hte car in front of you and accelerates and slows down as necessary…
I've surprisingly used summon more than I thought I would - turns out it quite useful to back the car out of space when someone has parked too close to you at the mall…I used it at least once a week due to poor parking habits of my fellow citizens…
I've surprisingly used summon more than I thought I would - turns out it quite useful to back the car out of space when someone has parked too close to you at the mall…I used it at least once a week due to poor parking habits of my fellow citizens…