Tesla existential threat?
#136
Pro
RE the petroleum industry. There will be 2 billion ICE vehicles around the globe in 2035, up from about 1.3 billion today, I think they will be fine. They have time to build EV charging networks and services because at the end of the day they are energy companies and they don’t really care about what form it is delivered in.
The following users liked this post:
JHW911 (10-31-2019)
#137
Originally Posted by chuck911
Exactly. Totally correct. Everyone chooses cheap over expensive. At least at first. But then after this goes on a while, because of all the profit being made everyone's lives, standard of living improves, until eventually they start looking around and realizing hey you know the best way of making our lives even better is to fix that river that caught fire last year.
It can happen by people simply not buying the dirty crap. Fine with me. It can happen by people shaming with dirty looks the people who keep buying the dirty crap. Equally fine by me. It can even happen by the people voting for laws that ban the dirty crap, and specify exactly how clean it has to be. Surprisingly, also perfectly fine by me. Which is not what we have today, which is unelected unaccountable ideologues writing regulations by decree, a law unto themselves, which is NOT fine by me! Which is pretty much what we have now.
Again, the only reason we have any of these EV's being made is unelected unaccountable environmental ideologues writing regulations that require them. Yes it has gotten that bad. Not enough any more to just make ICE near impossible to build in compliance, not enough any more to merely take money from one and give it to another to subsidize EV's, they are now actually requiring the EV's be made. And I could have sworn one of the lessons of the last century was that planned economies do not work?
Guess not. Ideologues. Always know. Never learn.
It can happen by people simply not buying the dirty crap. Fine with me. It can happen by people shaming with dirty looks the people who keep buying the dirty crap. Equally fine by me. It can even happen by the people voting for laws that ban the dirty crap, and specify exactly how clean it has to be. Surprisingly, also perfectly fine by me. Which is not what we have today, which is unelected unaccountable ideologues writing regulations by decree, a law unto themselves, which is NOT fine by me! Which is pretty much what we have now.
Again, the only reason we have any of these EV's being made is unelected unaccountable environmental ideologues writing regulations that require them. Yes it has gotten that bad. Not enough any more to just make ICE near impossible to build in compliance, not enough any more to merely take money from one and give it to another to subsidize EV's, they are now actually requiring the EV's be made. And I could have sworn one of the lessons of the last century was that planned economies do not work?
Guess not. Ideologues. Always know. Never learn.
#138
Rennlist Member
since this is the Tesla thread - Tesla news from the past month or week
1. Elon pulled an all nighter and turned in his homework (although sloppy) and produced 5,000 Model 3's in one week
2. Tesla has officially pasted the 200,000 EV mark in the US - and now the phase out of the $7,500 Fed. rebate begins
3. Tesla announced plans for a factory in China
4. Tesla opened orders to everyone for the Model 3 - no reservation required
5. Tesla has begun production of the Model 3 AWD version and the Performance version - $80,000 fully optioned (FSD)
6. The ordering website no longer lists the $35k version of the car, but Tesla insists nothing has changed
I still can't wait for Porsche's entry so that Tesla will finally have some competition.
1. Elon pulled an all nighter and turned in his homework (although sloppy) and produced 5,000 Model 3's in one week
2. Tesla has officially pasted the 200,000 EV mark in the US - and now the phase out of the $7,500 Fed. rebate begins
3. Tesla announced plans for a factory in China
4. Tesla opened orders to everyone for the Model 3 - no reservation required
5. Tesla has begun production of the Model 3 AWD version and the Performance version - $80,000 fully optioned (FSD)
6. The ordering website no longer lists the $35k version of the car, but Tesla insists nothing has changed
I still can't wait for Porsche's entry so that Tesla will finally have some competition.
#139
I'm a 4 year Tesla S owner and TSLA stock holder. Have been doing Porsche Passport for the last 2 months and now I'm so bored with the model s. It's great as a commuter car because of autopilot and Slacker, but it's boring. and buggy. and i'm tired of having to stop to charge on the way to the beach. and the AC sucks - the cabin is hot in the summer. they're everywhere. chargers are overcrowded. it needs a makeover. the x is the ugliest car on the road. i wouldn't recommend that someone buy a new model s right now. maybe a model 3 - maybe. all of this said, i will keep the car for at least 18 more months to see what's up with Taycan. hell, i might just get the 992 Targa GTS and burn baby burn.
The following users liked this post:
JHW911 (10-31-2019)
#140
I'm a 4 year Tesla S owner and TSLA stock holder. Have been doing Porsche Passport for the last 2 months and now I'm so bored with the model s. It's great as a commuter car because of autopilot and Slacker, but it's boring. and buggy. and i'm tired of having to stop to charge on the way to the beach. and the AC sucks - the cabin is hot in the summer. they're everywhere. chargers are overcrowded. it needs a makeover. the x is the ugliest car on the road. i wouldn't recommend that someone buy a new model s right now. maybe a model 3 - maybe. all of this said, i will keep the car for at least 18 more months to see what's up with Taycan. hell, i might just get the 992 Targa GTS and burn baby burn.
#141
Pro
I just ordered a Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid Sport Turismo and the fast charge at the dealer is suddenly very interesting to me. The car is build to order so I won’t have it until the end of the year, but my local dealer is Carlsen and they are going through a major renovation that will include the fast chargers.
Range is range, I’m not sure that anything above 350 miles is worth the added cost in battery weight but the game changer certainly does seem to be the fast charging that Tesla is actually downplaying. If you can give me an 80% charge in 15 minutes, I’m happy. It takes me 15 minutes to get gas given the wait for the pump, credit card processing, and fill time. My Panamera is a hybrid so I’ll only get a taste of what an EV is like but if it works for me, I’ll order a Taycan in the second model year.
I am not a Tesla fan, don’t like the styling (getting a little dated, IMO) and the interiors are crap but I will say this, Tesla is winning right now and if anyone is facing an existential threat, it is the Germans. They are way behind on technology development despite the crown jewel that is Bosch and organizationally these companies don’t seem equipped to deal with more Tesla-like competitors. More significantly, buyers are voting with wallets and great mechanical engineering and quality is losing. Ring times get people on these forums excited, the bread-and-butter luxury car buyer doesn’t care.
Range is range, I’m not sure that anything above 350 miles is worth the added cost in battery weight but the game changer certainly does seem to be the fast charging that Tesla is actually downplaying. If you can give me an 80% charge in 15 minutes, I’m happy. It takes me 15 minutes to get gas given the wait for the pump, credit card processing, and fill time. My Panamera is a hybrid so I’ll only get a taste of what an EV is like but if it works for me, I’ll order a Taycan in the second model year.
I am not a Tesla fan, don’t like the styling (getting a little dated, IMO) and the interiors are crap but I will say this, Tesla is winning right now and if anyone is facing an existential threat, it is the Germans. They are way behind on technology development despite the crown jewel that is Bosch and organizationally these companies don’t seem equipped to deal with more Tesla-like competitors. More significantly, buyers are voting with wallets and great mechanical engineering and quality is losing. Ring times get people on these forums excited, the bread-and-butter luxury car buyer doesn’t care.
#142
I just ordered a Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid Sport Turismo and the fast charge at the dealer is suddenly very interesting to me. The car is build to order so I won’t have it until the end of the year, but my local dealer is Carlsen and they are going through a major renovation that will include the fast chargers.
Range is range, I’m not sure that anything above 350 miles is worth the added cost in battery weight but the game changer certainly does seem to be the fast charging that Tesla is actually downplaying. If you can give me an 80% charge in 15 minutes, I’m happy. It takes me 15 minutes to get gas given the wait for the pump, credit card processing, and fill time. My Panamera is a hybrid so I’ll only get a taste of what an EV is like but if it works for me, I’ll order a Taycan in the second model year.
I am not a Tesla fan, don’t like the styling (getting a little dated, IMO) and the interiors are crap but I will say this, Tesla is winning right now and if anyone is facing an existential threat, it is the Germans. They are way behind on technology development despite the crown jewel that is Bosch and organizationally these companies don’t seem equipped to deal with more Tesla-like competitors. More significantly, buyers are voting with wallets and great mechanical engineering and quality is losing. Ring times get people on these forums excited, the bread-and-butter luxury car buyer doesn’t care.
Range is range, I’m not sure that anything above 350 miles is worth the added cost in battery weight but the game changer certainly does seem to be the fast charging that Tesla is actually downplaying. If you can give me an 80% charge in 15 minutes, I’m happy. It takes me 15 minutes to get gas given the wait for the pump, credit card processing, and fill time. My Panamera is a hybrid so I’ll only get a taste of what an EV is like but if it works for me, I’ll order a Taycan in the second model year.
I am not a Tesla fan, don’t like the styling (getting a little dated, IMO) and the interiors are crap but I will say this, Tesla is winning right now and if anyone is facing an existential threat, it is the Germans. They are way behind on technology development despite the crown jewel that is Bosch and organizationally these companies don’t seem equipped to deal with more Tesla-like competitors. More significantly, buyers are voting with wallets and great mechanical engineering and quality is losing. Ring times get people on these forums excited, the bread-and-butter luxury car buyer doesn’t care.
#143
Rennlist Member
I'm still confused by over crowded chargers - yes that happens, buy my personal charger at home is never crowded an always available,
my humble opinion is that if you're using public chargers for your daily driving needs then you're doing it wrong. one of the main advantages of owning an EV is it can be re-fueled at home while you sleep - since 99.9% of home have electricity - your public charger use should be infrequent and opportunistic - I also just completed a 1820 mile round trip using Tesla superchargers and never once encounter a congestion problem...
why are you depending on fast chargers for your daily usage?
my humble opinion is that if you're using public chargers for your daily driving needs then you're doing it wrong. one of the main advantages of owning an EV is it can be re-fueled at home while you sleep - since 99.9% of home have electricity - your public charger use should be infrequent and opportunistic - I also just completed a 1820 mile round trip using Tesla superchargers and never once encounter a congestion problem...
why are you depending on fast chargers for your daily usage?
#144
I don’t use the super chargers regularly - only on distance trips. But many T owners (especially new ones) love to use them as parking spots. Tesla started to monitor and the 3s have limited free supercharging, but they’re still over crowded too often.
#145
Got the call yesterday- my model 3 dual motor will be ready for pickup Tuesday. I have yet to drive the dual motor, I have driven the regular 3 as has a friend (and ex F1 engineer). We were both impressed, far more so than with the S, though we both prefer smaller cars. We’ll see how the Dual (not performance) does. The garage will now be Tesla M3D daily, GT3 Touring weekend/ autocross, 1969 912 rally car, 1969 911(ish) competition.
The most recent equivalent car to the model 3 I’ve had was an Audi S3, BMW M3 before that. The Tesla makes the S3 in particular feel two decades dated.
I also realize this is my first American car. I’ve had Japanese, Italian and German (1x VW, 2x BMW, 2x Audi, 10x Porsche) but I’ve never been tempted by something American before.
I see Tesla as a challenge for Porsche in particular. Porsche’s “value based” pricing model charges more for performance, and Tesla’s making performance cheap. If Porsche follows suit and prices its electrics to win they will undercut their own ICE models, speeding their demise. Their cost structure also means they can’t make their target margins if they try to compete on price (something I discussed with a Porsche engineer in Germany). Will brand, quality and feel be durable enough advantages? Ideally for them Tesla focuses on self driving and leaves them the “driver’s electric” market, but it will be interesting to see...
I also appreciated this given the imminent doom predicted elsewhere in this thread, and the 1+ billion short sellers lost betting against Tesla earlier this week. More amusing for some than others I’m sure...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HkvYvk8vxuw&feature=youtu.be
The most recent equivalent car to the model 3 I’ve had was an Audi S3, BMW M3 before that. The Tesla makes the S3 in particular feel two decades dated.
I also realize this is my first American car. I’ve had Japanese, Italian and German (1x VW, 2x BMW, 2x Audi, 10x Porsche) but I’ve never been tempted by something American before.
I see Tesla as a challenge for Porsche in particular. Porsche’s “value based” pricing model charges more for performance, and Tesla’s making performance cheap. If Porsche follows suit and prices its electrics to win they will undercut their own ICE models, speeding their demise. Their cost structure also means they can’t make their target margins if they try to compete on price (something I discussed with a Porsche engineer in Germany). Will brand, quality and feel be durable enough advantages? Ideally for them Tesla focuses on self driving and leaves them the “driver’s electric” market, but it will be interesting to see...
I also appreciated this given the imminent doom predicted elsewhere in this thread, and the 1+ billion short sellers lost betting against Tesla earlier this week. More amusing for some than others I’m sure...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HkvYvk8vxuw&feature=youtu.be
#146
Rennlist Member
+1 my Tesla's were my first american cars _EVER_ - followed by GM's Bolt for the kids - EV is shaking things up!
#147
A bit early to draw any conclusions about the future of Tesla, right? Given the Q2 GAAP loss, with each Tesla delivered in Q2 it gave away $15K+ of shareholder equity.
#148
Long term it’s a bit early. Short term it’s pretty obvious if you follow the math. OPEX is decreasing due to recent 10% layoffs and reduced CAPEX spend for production tooling. M3 per-vehicle COGS and production costs leaves over 30% profit by independent analysis. Given the increase in production already largely realized from Q2 you can expect another ~$5 million per day coming in with the recent ramp (and significantly less going out), closing the gap you mention. Or at least that’s what those that put their money where their mouth is have concluded, which is why short sellers have lost a billion dollars in the last week as the stock has gained 16%.
But of course you’re right: it’s not over until it’s over, and the shorts are welcome to double down if they’ve got any money left. When will it be over, by the way, any dates?
I fully believe Tesla’s overpriced, and long term a correction is due. Short term those that have bet against it have consistently looked like fools and paid in blood. So far it hasn’t stopped them trying to turn up the volume.
But of course you’re right: it’s not over until it’s over, and the shorts are welcome to double down if they’ve got any money left. When will it be over, by the way, any dates?
I fully believe Tesla’s overpriced, and long term a correction is due. Short term those that have bet against it have consistently looked like fools and paid in blood. So far it hasn’t stopped them trying to turn up the volume.
#149
Rennlist Member
#150
This guy sums up everything I've been arguing about Tesla for years. It's a joke financially, a cult more than a company, but you NEVER SHORT A CULT. Because there's no telling how long the cult will survive.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/07/th...-crazy-market/
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/07/th...-crazy-market/