2019 economic outlook?
01-24-2019, 06:31 PM
#1
Pro
Thread Starter
2019 economic outlook?
hey. just thought I'd ask. I'm sure there's a bunch of guys here that way more tuned to this stuff then me. I dont watch news and I'm a landscape contractor. so we dont have too many conversations around the water cooler. I hear alot of negatives out there and some good too. anyone have some thoughts. say buy another place now? hold out?
01-25-2019, 11:02 AM
#3
01-25-2019, 12:48 PM
#4
Burning Brakes
It's never a bad time to buy real estate!
01-25-2019, 01:14 PM
#5
Pro
Thread Starter
I'm mixed. probably go down to beaches .
the thought of a commercial / res. on queen or Gerrard or something with a store front and 2 appt is interesting too. we dont have kids yet or worked at one fixed place so pretty portable.
the thought of a commercial / res. on queen or Gerrard or something with a store front and 2 appt is interesting too. we dont have kids yet or worked at one fixed place so pretty portable.
01-25-2019, 01:57 PM
#7
Three Wheelin'
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Toronto, north of the lake.
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Take a look at the list of "most expensive cities to live" and see where TO sits.
Now think about how many of those cities will be underwater in 20 years.
When the well to do from Vancouver, Victoria, Halifax, start moving here. Some will come from HK, LA, NYC as well.
They aren't printing new land in the GTA, so prices have to go up, at least in the long term.
Now think about how many of those cities will be underwater in 20 years.
When the well to do from Vancouver, Victoria, Halifax, start moving here. Some will come from HK, LA, NYC as well.
They aren't printing new land in the GTA, so prices have to go up, at least in the long term.
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01-25-2019, 03:01 PM
#8
Tell that to anybody that piled a bunch into Calgary a couple years ago, or TO and Vancouver before the mortgage rule and associated changes.
On the commercial end it’s compounded by usage and market inventory demands. Lots of empty office space in Calgary right now, and lots of empty warehouse space in Edmonton.
Now if your timeframe is long enough, one could make a case....but suspect most people aren’t looking at a 50year window like the pension funds are.
On the commercial end it’s compounded by usage and market inventory demands. Lots of empty office space in Calgary right now, and lots of empty warehouse space in Edmonton.
Now if your timeframe is long enough, one could make a case....but suspect most people aren’t looking at a 50year window like the pension funds are.
01-25-2019, 10:26 PM
#9
I have no sense of the downtown real estate market since I've been out for 6 years. But new condo developments in Oakville are selling out same day as release . Mattamy had releases over three Saturdays last November, all sold same day. Think it's roughly the same for any sub $500k developments here. I think is for a few reasons a) what can you get without spending more than $500k and where b) make decent rentals c) young professionals (sort of related to a but there are other age groups that won't be able to afford more than $500k in a main city)
Overall interest rates don't look like they will rise. In fact they are coming down here again. US growth seems to be slowing, Fed there may show caution in pace of rate hikes.
Seems to be economy could be slowing with some saying some sort of recession is coming in 1-2 years. So if one has ability to purchase assets during that period and ride it out one might do alright.
Overall interest rates don't look like they will rise. In fact they are coming down here again. US growth seems to be slowing, Fed there may show caution in pace of rate hikes.
Seems to be economy could be slowing with some saying some sort of recession is coming in 1-2 years. So if one has ability to purchase assets during that period and ride it out one might do alright.
01-26-2019, 08:09 PM
#10
Race Director
With the inability to get a whole lot done at the federal level, problems in the oil patch (see previous), home prices leveling off, the average level of individual indebtedness my bet is recession is coming. Bond yields have dropped, 5 year mortgage rates have dropped and business investment is projected to drop yet again. I'd bet on an interest rate drop from Bank of Canada as well.
01-26-2019, 08:50 PM
#11
US figures are good, unemployment is low. From what I've know over the last 20yrs, when the US struggles so do we and when its good in the US its good here. Interest rates are stable and its always a good time to buy property as long as its not a bidding war, or your getting into a new place at 8% interest rate. Interest rates are rising with banks offering 3:15% on GIC's for 18 months. The days where .99% on new cars are gone.
I agree that the next 24 months may be a little bit slippery on the markets due to constant growth over the last decade ( except for last year 2018 ) but US economy is strong.
I say go for it !!
I agree that the next 24 months may be a little bit slippery on the markets due to constant growth over the last decade ( except for last year 2018 ) but US economy is strong.
I say go for it !!
01-26-2019, 09:17 PM
#12
Rennlist Member
Everyone knows the real barometer for the strength of the economy is the resale price on GT3’s, whether dealers can command ADM’s on new cars and the amount of GT3’s on the used car market. Based on the foregoing, I’d say it’s time to sell your real estate...
01-27-2019, 10:45 AM
#13
Rennlist Member
I’m going to call it now. 12-18 months we are going into a recession. Cars being leased out at 8 years is not a good sign. It’s only a way to keep people’s payment the same and stretching it out longer. Eventually you have to pay the piper. With the low dollar off lease vehicles can easily be moved to the us and a stronger market. The younger generation isn’t as keen on even getting their drivers licences as driving as when we were young. The change to electric will also lessen the need for back house service in the major dealerships. Governments lack of fiscal responsibility, and move towards a more socialistic and apologetic regime with the immigration me factor will also be a contributing factor. I hope I am way off base but I have gone from guarded optimism to guarded pessimissim in my investment strategy. Hopefully baby boomer wealth accumulation along with the download transfer of wealth from their parents and the re distribution to the baby boomers kids will help prevent or moderate these negative or downward scenarios.
01-27-2019, 04:54 PM
#14
Major RE correction is happening here in Vancouver right. No more multi offer situations on properties, condo presales have dried up and homes valued $2m+ are sitting on the market. This is due to the clump down on illegal money coming in from China, higher interest rates and tougher mortgage rules. A lot of people are way over their heads locally who have maxed out their HELOC's because they assumed their homes would keep going up in value.
01-28-2019, 11:37 AM
#15
Captain Obvious
Super User
Super User
I’m going to call it now. 12-18 months we are going into a recession. Cars being leased out at 8 years is not a good sign. It’s only a way to keep people’s payment the same and stretching it out longer. Eventually you have to pay the piper. With the low dollar off lease vehicles can easily be moved to the us and a stronger market. The younger generation isn’t as keen on even getting their drivers licences as driving as when we were young. The change to electric will also lessen the need for back house service in the major dealerships. Governments lack of fiscal responsibility, and move towards a more socialistic and apologetic regime with the immigration me factor will also be a contributing factor. I hope I am way off base but I have gone from guarded optimism to guarded pessimissim in my investment strategy. Hopefully baby boomer wealth accumulation along with the download transfer of wealth from their parents and the re distribution to the baby boomers kids will help prevent or moderate these negative or downward scenarios.