prices on CGT?
10-10-2018, 03:11 AM
#151
The poster standard ... the Testarossa and Countach poster got the cheerleaders without a lot of car chatter ... the Turbo poster got the girl who would listen to the droning about why it was a better car. As far as sports cars go Porsche was (and to a more limited degree still is) the prolitarian of the bunch.
10-11-2018, 05:58 AM
#152
I know this is said in jest, but I think in the long-term there's much more to it than this.
Overall, a car that is ordered with special options will, way down the road, likely be worth more than a "standard" example. But, if those options are particularly off-putting or in bad taste, it will absolutely be a real challenge to find a buyer for the car. Eventually, when the car is decades old, there may be a "novelty" effect where people are interested to buy it simply due to being unique, but that takes a very long time. So, ordering a crazy spec for the purposes of investment isn't automatically wise unless the spec happens to be really tasteful and represent what enthusiasts actually want.
As for the CGT being discussed, I think the reality is that the car is still too new for the A/C & radio delete to really be attracting buyers over a standard car, since most buyers (especially ones buying a higher miles car) will want to be able to use the car comfortably. Perhaps when the Carrera GT is a classic car, an example like this one will be more appealing and bring a considerable premium. But, it should also be considered that A/C & radio delete was never really a highly advertised or touted option on this car. To my knowledge Porsche never released numbers saying how much weight it saved, and they certainly didn't make it exciting by making the A/C & radio delete into a "Clubsport" package, a Weissach package (a-la 918), something of that nature. If these options had been branded in that way, a car like this would absolutely bring big money compared to a standard example, just as any "Clubsport" 911 RS or "Weissach" 918 does today.
Overall, a car that is ordered with special options will, way down the road, likely be worth more than a "standard" example. But, if those options are particularly off-putting or in bad taste, it will absolutely be a real challenge to find a buyer for the car. Eventually, when the car is decades old, there may be a "novelty" effect where people are interested to buy it simply due to being unique, but that takes a very long time. So, ordering a crazy spec for the purposes of investment isn't automatically wise unless the spec happens to be really tasteful and represent what enthusiasts actually want.
As for the CGT being discussed, I think the reality is that the car is still too new for the A/C & radio delete to really be attracting buyers over a standard car, since most buyers (especially ones buying a higher miles car) will want to be able to use the car comfortably. Perhaps when the Carrera GT is a classic car, an example like this one will be more appealing and bring a considerable premium. But, it should also be considered that A/C & radio delete was never really a highly advertised or touted option on this car. To my knowledge Porsche never released numbers saying how much weight it saved, and they certainly didn't make it exciting by making the A/C & radio delete into a "Clubsport" package, a Weissach package (a-la 918), something of that nature. If these options had been branded in that way, a car like this would absolutely bring big money compared to a standard example, just as any "Clubsport" 911 RS or "Weissach" 918 does today.
10-11-2018, 09:15 AM
#153
Drifting
Let me counter that argument Sterling and say apples versus oranges is Ferrari vs Porsche. Ferrari made over 1,300 F40's. During the same era or even slightly before, Porsche made less than 300 road going 959's. Why isn't the very limited, relative to the F40, Porsche super car worth several multiples more than the Ferrari? Because it's a Porsche, not a Ferrari.
575SA manual priced at the CGT - makes no sense other than Maranello.
The value of the CGT is in the drivers seat vs value of the Enzo is in it's name.
10-11-2018, 02:53 PM
#154
10-11-2018, 04:29 PM
#155
Rennlist Member
Maybe not the right question(s). The question may be when - or if - the limited/low production cars of the 2000's and 2010's will be as valuable as the limited/low production cars of the 1990''s (plus the 959) relative to their MSRP's? Is there room to grow into similar multiples? Will they take 25 years to get there as the 1990's car did? Or were too many produced to ever reach those multiples? And if they do reach similar multiples as the low production 1990's cars have today, what will the multiples be on those 1990's cars at that time?
Generally speaking here is where we are today:
959K - MSRP ~$300k - today's value ~$1.2m+ - multiple 4x+
964 3.8 RS - MSRP ~$140k - today's value ~$1m+ - multiple 5x+
993 GT2 (strassen) - MSRP ~$200k - today's value ~$1.5m+ - multiple 7x+
997 RS4.0 - MSRP ~$205k - today's value ~$450k - multiple 2.5x
997 GT2RS - MSRP ~$265k - today's value ~$400k - multiple 2x-
CGT - MSRP ~$445k - today's value ~$750k - multiple 1.7x
Generally speaking here is where we are today:
959K - MSRP ~$300k - today's value ~$1.2m+ - multiple 4x+
964 3.8 RS - MSRP ~$140k - today's value ~$1m+ - multiple 5x+
993 GT2 (strassen) - MSRP ~$200k - today's value ~$1.5m+ - multiple 7x+
997 RS4.0 - MSRP ~$205k - today's value ~$450k - multiple 2.5x
997 GT2RS - MSRP ~$265k - today's value ~$400k - multiple 2x-
CGT - MSRP ~$445k - today's value ~$750k - multiple 1.7x
10-11-2018, 04:30 PM
#156
Rennlist Member
Reading it again I suppose you said kinda the same thing!
10-11-2018, 06:54 PM
#157
Agreed. the factory published weight of the cgt at 1380kg is basically a nonsensical claim as I don't know a single car that has been weighed in at anything near that. The 3 cars I have personally seen weighed all were about 1460kg fully fuelled.
10-11-2018, 08:00 PM
#158
In other words, if it was only about an investment what would you buy?
10-12-2018, 03:24 PM
#161
Rennlist Member
To me the best investment is still the CGT...still very undervalued for what it is. It's time will come for sure.
10-13-2018, 01:27 PM
#162
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There is definitely a better case for consolidating 2-3 GT3RS cars into a CGT vs the other direction.
Mark one thing you really need to address or at least I choose to- is the stratification of tiers in the market.
Meaning a Tier 1 vs Tier 3 CGT...not all equally treated over the last decade and a half.
The value of money is not equal to what it was.
Median home price in 1985 against 288GTO and $300,000 959
vs median home now vs 918 msrp...
The cars are relatively flat from 1987 to now,
In relation to consumer price index and median home price increases.
The truly exceptional car price increases are really limited to production numbers below 400/600 units. And only on 25 year + scales
F1
250 TR, TDF, GTO etc
If you bought a $1M McLaren F1 in 1995, your car is worth 15m + now. That outstrips the price of the house you could have bought instead, which maybe has gone up 3-4x. Scaling- if the F1 was 3x the price of a 959, it's now 12x. At 15+m to 1.2M (asking not always selling)
While the CGT will never be a 5M car and 10x its original msrp, it will ALWAYS be more fun, practical, accessible, and just as loud/exotic sounding as cars costing a lot more.
Take the jaguar XJR15 for example. Super rare. All carbon. Stick shift. V12. 2400 lbs.
But literally less comfortable ergonomics than a 962 race Car. So yes those will be 1M, up 2x in the last 18 months. But slower and more rickety than a CGT. And despite the v12 thing not as sweet sounding.
The future comparable car for the CGT is the Mercedes 300SL. Widely regarded as innovative (engine tech from fighter planes) and classy, yes they are ubiquitous but also a staple in real nice car collections.
They trade hands around 1-1.5M depending on provenance and occasionally go for more or less as a unit group. They're old enough to be stable and unlike a Miura, not trendy or ever out of style.
Rounded, sculptural, unique and much much more Modern and special feeling vs any of its contemporary cars. Put a CGT next to a McLaren SLR or interior of CGT vs 05 Ford GT. Which one is really the timeless classic? It's hugely obvious that the CGT was designed to be gorgeous for 50 years.
Mark one thing you really need to address or at least I choose to- is the stratification of tiers in the market.
Meaning a Tier 1 vs Tier 3 CGT...not all equally treated over the last decade and a half.
The value of money is not equal to what it was.
Median home price in 1985 against 288GTO and $300,000 959
vs median home now vs 918 msrp...
The cars are relatively flat from 1987 to now,
In relation to consumer price index and median home price increases.
The truly exceptional car price increases are really limited to production numbers below 400/600 units. And only on 25 year + scales
F1
250 TR, TDF, GTO etc
If you bought a $1M McLaren F1 in 1995, your car is worth 15m + now. That outstrips the price of the house you could have bought instead, which maybe has gone up 3-4x. Scaling- if the F1 was 3x the price of a 959, it's now 12x. At 15+m to 1.2M (asking not always selling)
While the CGT will never be a 5M car and 10x its original msrp, it will ALWAYS be more fun, practical, accessible, and just as loud/exotic sounding as cars costing a lot more.
Take the jaguar XJR15 for example. Super rare. All carbon. Stick shift. V12. 2400 lbs.
But literally less comfortable ergonomics than a 962 race Car. So yes those will be 1M, up 2x in the last 18 months. But slower and more rickety than a CGT. And despite the v12 thing not as sweet sounding.
The future comparable car for the CGT is the Mercedes 300SL. Widely regarded as innovative (engine tech from fighter planes) and classy, yes they are ubiquitous but also a staple in real nice car collections.
They trade hands around 1-1.5M depending on provenance and occasionally go for more or less as a unit group. They're old enough to be stable and unlike a Miura, not trendy or ever out of style.
Rounded, sculptural, unique and much much more Modern and special feeling vs any of its contemporary cars. Put a CGT next to a McLaren SLR or interior of CGT vs 05 Ford GT. Which one is really the timeless classic? It's hugely obvious that the CGT was designed to be gorgeous for 50 years.
10-13-2018, 09:20 PM
#163
Drifting
^ interesting reading.
CJ,
puting aside the limited numbers do you think the 458 Speciale is really worth the premium over the Italia in respect to driving performance and driver experience ?
im lurking and thinking to sell my 458 and go for a speciale however undecided if it’s really worth the extra $
thanx in advance
drm
CJ,
puting aside the limited numbers do you think the 458 Speciale is really worth the premium over the Italia in respect to driving performance and driver experience ?
im lurking and thinking to sell my 458 and go for a speciale however undecided if it’s really worth the extra $
thanx in advance
drm
Last edited by DRPM; 10-14-2018 at 08:01 AM.
10-14-2018, 12:53 AM
#164
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por9, RAClaims and CJ
very interesting discussion. while I usually do not discuss value, this is not just about value of cars, it's really now about philosophy, macro economics and fiscal beliefs.
so I'll play
pors9 uses MULTIPLES to judge value. simple but has its merit. but it neglect the original price of the car relative general consumer index, as CJ talked about
CJ comparing cars to OTHER monetary items such as prices of homes etc to peg relative value and relative movement of pricing. very interesting concept and very valid as well.
but both assume holding the car from T sub 0 to T today. is that really investment? I don't have crystal ball, but let's assume I bought 288GTO for msrp, instead of holding it to today, I traded to lusso (the old lusso, not the thing you can buy at showroom today) then traded to F50 at its low then to CGT at its low. what would my NPV be today? that's a much more sophisticated analysis and "investment" strategy... maybe I should start a equity fund for that. no seriously.
that said, all the gains are paper gains, cars or homes. they gain is not realized until you sold it. u know like dry humping.
now if you become crippled and sold your $15MM F1, the money could become useful. buy a young chic to stay with u at "Shady Pines"... it happens
otherwise, why would you sell the F1. how are you going to replaced it with something remotely similar?
so what is the purpose of the investment? emotionally for YOU to enjoy the car/toy or the ultimate cash out day so you can stare at the pile of cash or maybe send the cash to your kids?
no judging, it is a question I have and I have not been able to answer yet.
OLD school investors like my old man, he waited waited waited and cashed out.
yes, he made big profit. but he was too old to enjoy any of his success.
rambling and digressed....
but value/investment has many angles...
very interesting discussion. while I usually do not discuss value, this is not just about value of cars, it's really now about philosophy, macro economics and fiscal beliefs.
so I'll play
pors9 uses MULTIPLES to judge value. simple but has its merit. but it neglect the original price of the car relative general consumer index, as CJ talked about
CJ comparing cars to OTHER monetary items such as prices of homes etc to peg relative value and relative movement of pricing. very interesting concept and very valid as well.
but both assume holding the car from T sub 0 to T today. is that really investment? I don't have crystal ball, but let's assume I bought 288GTO for msrp, instead of holding it to today, I traded to lusso (the old lusso, not the thing you can buy at showroom today) then traded to F50 at its low then to CGT at its low. what would my NPV be today? that's a much more sophisticated analysis and "investment" strategy... maybe I should start a equity fund for that. no seriously.
that said, all the gains are paper gains, cars or homes. they gain is not realized until you sold it. u know like dry humping.
now if you become crippled and sold your $15MM F1, the money could become useful. buy a young chic to stay with u at "Shady Pines"... it happens
otherwise, why would you sell the F1. how are you going to replaced it with something remotely similar?
so what is the purpose of the investment? emotionally for YOU to enjoy the car/toy or the ultimate cash out day so you can stare at the pile of cash or maybe send the cash to your kids?
no judging, it is a question I have and I have not been able to answer yet.
OLD school investors like my old man, he waited waited waited and cashed out.
yes, he made big profit. but he was too old to enjoy any of his success.
rambling and digressed....
but value/investment has many angles...
10-14-2018, 01:23 AM
#165
Rennlist Member
Add in costs like maintenance insurance and storage and suddenly these don’t look like great “investment”. Great cars yes.
I just ran the numbers and well. That 959 you’d have been better off. Way better off. In t bills.
That same 400k in any pick your stock (msrp in mid 80s, aapl way back) or re investment in many areas you’d be raining dollars.
But yes great cars to enjoy.
I just ran the numbers and well. That 959 you’d have been better off. Way better off. In t bills.
That same 400k in any pick your stock (msrp in mid 80s, aapl way back) or re investment in many areas you’d be raining dollars.
But yes great cars to enjoy.