daveo4porsche

This is an infrastructure issue that will be with us until it’s more built out - the good news is there are more fast chargers every week - it took decades to get gas infrastructure to where it is today - and one pipe line burst or lost refinerary causes can hobble hundreds of gas stations in an area...

This problem will pass and even today happens infrequently.

928 GT R

This thread just gets better every day. Thanks to all who are contributing!

Every person that I know with a Tesla S or P100S simply loves it (Ludicrous Mode is even more fun than Launch Control on a Turbo S)!!! ;-) The Fit and finish of the S is great and maintenance issues are negligible. EV's are clearly the way of the future and when I postulated that it would be worth watching how many Tesla 3 buyers would cancel their orders because of the delay in delivery, it was in support of the fact that few buyers would in fact cancel their orders.

At present, there are 1,083 Supercharger stations with 7,320 Superchargers (many more thousands of home/destination chargers are also in use.) The buildout of charging stations is progressing at an alarming pace and many of the new stations have 20 chargers with one in California (Kettleman City on Rt 5) having plans for 40 Superchargers. Overall, growth plans are for their to be 18,000 superchargers in place by the end of 2018!

The barriers to universal use of EV's are disappearing as we write.

Porsche has both advantages and disadvantages coming with it's rollout. Tesla has great quality and marketshare, Porsche, has potentially better technology and build quality but, no installed charging infrastructure to feed it's 800 volt charging potential.

Porsche's commitment to EV's is obviously rock solid and clearly demonstrated by their decision to leave the World Endurance Championship and enter the FIA Formula E championship in the 2019-2020 season.

Methinks Porsche has a few surprises up their sleeves.

I'm not a particularly "early adopter" when it comes to shifts of this nature so a Mission E will fit right in for me since Tesla and others have paved the way for Porsche to introduce a superior product.

This site gives a glimpse of what we should be thinking about in terms of Porsche's drivetrain tech:

http://storage.rimac-automobili.com/...g_Overview.pdf

Enjoy!

Lorenfb

But presently and in the near future, the issue of charging time limits the growth rate
of BEVs. The typical consumer rationalizes that his/her ICEV can within 5-6 minutes obtain
another 400-500 miles of range. So until charging capability (battery & infrastructure)
approach 10C, the ICEV and hybrid will continue to be the preferred vehicle of choice.

Lorenfb

The building of a charging infrastructure in not all that much of a challenge for
VW/Porsche. And remember, that VW has committed to build a charging infrastructure
($800M) here in CA the result of the diesel (NOx) consent decree.

daveo4porsche

98% of driving or more is handled by home charging which is a new model people need to wrap their heads around. I use public chargers 6-10 times a year and plan appropriately.

When you fill your car up over night every night you don’t use fast chargers every day...

It a new model where one doesn’t to to the gas station.

Lorenfb

Obviously, the typical consumer hasn't accepted your view, i.e. given the marginal growth
rate of BEVs. And there's a significant segment of the population that lives in condos
and apartments where home charging in not practical.

Nicole

Once a 300 mile range is normal for an EV, people without home chargers will simply go to a fast charger, "fill-up" the battery, and come-back when they need to "fill-up" again.

Just like going to a gas station - just without inhaling carcinogenic fumes.

daveo4porsche

40% annual growth is _NOT_ marginal…it is devastating to an existing market
https://electrek.co/2017/07/21/electric-car-sales-us/

well it's obvious where you stand on EV's…

I'll humbly disagree with your assertions since they are based on measuring the meager sales of a new market segment against the established sales of a decades old existing market and assuming it will always be that way.

marginal growth rate compared to the entire industry is small - because it's a _NEW_ segment
but marginal growth rate in the BEV segment is breathtaking- and the trend is clear - it will become significant in the next 7 years


https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier.../#1bdbf393217f

https://insideevs.com/october-2017-p...s-report-card/

157,039 BEV/Hybred cars sold in 2017 in the US, and 775,370 world wide is pretty significant for a less than 10 year old segment in an industry where the purchase cycle is measured in about once every 10 years…

where there are compelling offers, BEV are in fact popular with consumers - Tesla is surpassing 250,000 units sold, and has 380,000+ orders for Model 3 (we'll see if they can actually make them but demand is clearly there)

when surveyed BEV owners prefer BEV's to gas cars and commonly state they plan to never buy a gas car again

home charging consistently ranks at as "top" feature/advantage of BEV's - so consumers that have the car do embrace the model

the lack of broad adoption is due to the lack of complete suite of offers at various price points and capabilities - this will change over time.

you argument is like saying in 1978 that because Apple had only sold 100,000 Apple II's that computing was not for the masses - and that was true in 1977 - but clearly not true today.

and just like the early days of computing all hte "short comings" will be overcome and the solutions are reasonably straightforward - but it will take time…

but the trend is clear, the technology is clear, the mandates are clear, and the limitations you speak of are not really an issue once you've owned BEV - but they are in fact the excused of entrenched vested interests that are losing influence and power...

Peak ICE will happen in the next 10 years - after that you will see an ever increasing mix of transportation alternatives - with the ICE suffering a declining percentage over time in huge market - much like the decline of the "beligured desktop PC industry, and DVD sales…

if this were not the case Porsche would not be wasting money on even having an offering in this space - and they certainly would not be participating in formula-E

the very existence of this forum/product refutes your basic arguments.

daveo4porsche

Condos and apartment can also install/provide home charging, but the growth of charging infrastructure will overcome the limitation - again you citing the lack of infrastructure as a permanent state of affairs, where this can easily change but will take time.

apartment/condo owning and charging is a topic that comes up a lot in EV forums - and there is clear trend where that is changing - it's also not as big of an impediment as one might think in that where there is high density apartment living there is also a disturbing trend of a lack of any car ownership in favor of public transportation/ride-sharing/short term car rental

basically once you remove the "big cities" (London, Paris, New York, Chicago, SF, Seattle) - and remove their high-density urban residential areas - single family home/garages with easy access to EV charging setup possible jumps dramatically - the trend for people living "downtown" with limited parking options and therefore limited EV charging opportunities also are not purchasing cars and car ownership is at all time lows for that segment because other factors have made car ownership too much of a burden…

charging infrastructure is getting better not worse
home charging is practical and effectively force multiplies any infrastructure and allows public charging to develop in parallel with adoption

and again the trends are clear - there are more BEV's in our future, not fewer, but there will be fewer ICE offerings over time.

daveo4porsche

one interesting Data point is that in it's first year the Bolt has outsold the Volt…

so when given a choice of:

a) a compelling BEV
b) a compelling Hybrid

at least in Chevy's case the Hybrid lost

compelling BEV's (and compelling is price + range) and the sweet spot seems to be about 220'ish miles

Hybrids only win if the comparable BEV isn't compelling for some reason

Good-BEV > Hybrid > ICE

when purchasing Hybrid are wining vs. pure gas cars, over the next 5-7 years BEV's will start doing to Hybrid what they did to pure gas cars.

daveo4porsche

so I pulled the data - here is US/World-wide since 2012 of Hybrids/BEV

2012 52,607 - 4000'ish/month
2013 97,507 - 8000'ish/month
2014 122,438(US) 320,713(world) 12,000'ish/Month
2015 116,099(US) 550,297(world) 10,000'ish/Month
2016 158,614(US) 777,497(world) 15,000'ish/Month
2017* 157,039(US) 775,370(world) 18,000'ish/Month

(*) - 2017 is only 10 months of data - there should be another 36,000 cars purchased in Nov/Dec. making it another growth year

2017 the Chevy Bolt has outsold the Tesla Model S and Chevy Volt

I've attached a charge with 2017's projected total sales - the world wide number show a clear trend…it's not marginal growth - and reflects the the fact that US sales are growing but not like world wide - but everyone seems to think that's because we temporarily have cheaper gas prices, any where else in the world due to gas prices BEV/Hybrid sales are booming and represent the major growth in new car sales.

data source: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Lorenfb

That assumes that the charging time becomes acceptable for the consumer versus the
energy replacement time of a ICEV or hybrid, besides range & vehicle cost. That's key!

Lorenfb

GM will still fall short of their sales forecast of 30K units for the Bolt for 2017.

daveo4porsche

yes they will - 25k seems a reasonable number - but will sell more Bolts than Volts - they will exceed their sales forecast of 30k for 2018 if they choose to make enough Bolts.

also they handicapped themselves by only selling the Bolt in a few markets for the first 6 months and still they are going to close to 30,000 cars sold.

also I can not find any data saying they forecast 30,000 sales, they have stated they were willing to make 30,000 units, but were taking a wait/see attitude for demand - so calling it a forecast seems a bit incorrect...they recently recommitted to continuing Bolt production at the factory where they are made for 2018 - which was unclear they were going to do so mid year…

apparently it's done well enough that they are doubling down on the Bolt platform for other badges and will have more electric cars in their future not fewer - which doesn't exactly smack of disappointment with the performance of the platform for sales

"In the next 18 months, GM will introduce two new all-electric vehicles based off learnings from the Chevrolet Bolt EV. They will be the first of at least 20 new all-electric vehicles that will launch by 2023."

http://media.gm.ca/media/ca/en/gm/ne...Emissions.html

daveo4porsche

here is 2017 sales Data of Bolt vs. Volt sales - the clear cross over point in the chart is when Chevy started selling the Bolt nation wide so it was competing directly with Hybrid purchasers…

if the Bolt sales growth continues Chevy would be able to sell many more than 30,000 Bolts in 2018