NoGaBiker

I don't know the answer because I've not kept up with prices, so honest question, VLJ: was that the case with 997 GT3 3.8 when 991 GT3 3.8 came out? I thought I remembered, at least initially, .7 prices going up significantly even after 991 GT3 came out.

Point being, perhaps "much improved" will make the 718 GT4 a faster car that's less fun to drive, perhaps it won't. But whatever the case, it will certainly be interesting to track prices of 981s after the 718 hits the street.

noro78

I am surprised nobody on this thread is foreseeing the massive plunge in vehicle prices coming our way in the 12-24 months. If will affect all type, daily drivers, classics and exotics. With a flood of 991 GT3s they decided to infuse the market with you'll be picking up one in 2 years with current GT4 prices.

Buteo

I wouldn't take a 991.1 GT3 over a GT4.

noro78

you missed my point. .. I wouldn't either.

NoGaBiker

I may have as well. Sounded like you were saying

A) A flood of 991.1 GT3s is about to hit the market when .2 GT3s come out.

B) that flood will produce a greater supply than demand, to some extent, driving .1 GT3 pricing down to current GT4 pricing

C) [Implied] Given that people value a .1 GT3 above a GT4, ipso facto, prices of 4s must fall significantly to reflect the fall of .1 GT3s.

Buteo countered your argument by saying maybe "C" is not true, or not true with 100% consistency, by pointing out that he, for one, wouldn't take an even-up swap of a .1GT3 for his GT4. You concurred. I make a third.

So it would seem that, by agreeing with Buteo about the greater desirability, you are actually weakening your own point, the one we "missed."

So maybe I really did miss it. Are A, B and C not your point?

Thanks!

noro78

Buteos and your points of view (add mine to the mix) with regards of choosing one over the other presents nearly 0 statistical significance. In general terms, as seen is larger numbers where there is statistical significance GT3 > GT4.

So C is true, even though You me and Buteo can spend all evening drooling over our mid-engined cars.

Classic car market is already showing signs of cracks irrelevant of a brand or model involved. A massive spike in lease returns that is about to flood the market is going to create general dive in terms of what "value" a vehicle presents. Believe it or now it affects all of them involved.

Take a look at the used Macans.. the sheer number of them listed for sale is sort of astonishing for a brand like Porsche... and the inventory is about to get larger.

This is my point of view, I have been wrong before on many many occasions.

NoGaBiker

Yes, you certainly could be right. It would be the conventional wisdom, for sure. In the end, GT4 values long term will depend on whether the future markets deem them somehow "special", in a 993, long-hood S, SWB 911 way. If that happens, then it doesn't matter how good future cars are, nor how many of them, etc. Prices will hold, or more likely slide slowly for half a decade, then start slowly rising again. A la 993 pricing.

Or, if the market says, "These are good little cars, but the 718 GT4 is even better, and the 991.1 GT3 is even better," then prices for 981 GT4s will take their place behind those other two.

It could certainly go either way. Who'd have EVER thought 964s would become $60,000 cars? But then, that took 20+ years after they quit making them. And it STILL hasn't happened to 951/968.

noro78

It's funny you bring up the 968 actually. I've owned an E30 M3 for over a decade (until last month when it was totalled by ignorance on 4 wheels) and I've always thought of the 968 as the spiritual counterpart in Porsche. I love the 968 but it proved to be unworthy in the eyes of the general public regardless of my love for it.

Archimedes

Nobody sees the cliff until it's too late. That said, given Yellen recently indicated that the Fed is going to keep the economic Ponzi scheme going a little longer, it's hard to say if it's going to be that soon. My guess is that 2019 is going to be a very bad year for the used sports car market, but I dropped my crystal ball the other day, so who knows.

spg993tt

been around a long time. timing the market is near impossible. in 2006 to 2008 you couldn't give stuff away, pcar, fcar and everything else. and then with no real reason, they have all just dubled and tripled in value.
first, is the car great? if so, demand will always be there. given the rarity of the car, same as the RS and other limited cars, it will be strong.

but put money aside, you cant live forever and if you wait for that last dollar, you will miss out on the fun of the car.
my local deal was telling me about the holdup at the ports right now for 2017 and 2018 cars..he has nothing to sell. that supply demand thing.

if you love it, buy it, enjoy the f out of it. and don't worry too much about the last few bucks.

Archimedes

No real reason? Google historical fed funds rate chart and look at the period since 2008... That's why asset values have increased.

Timing the market perfectly is impossible, but it's not impossible to predict a bubble. Lots of people do it every time one appears; even a schmuck like me did it both of the last two times. What many people, myself included, didn't predict was the Fed's appetite to manipulate the market to the extent that it has this time around. But for CB nonsense, this asset bubble would have burst a long time ago, as it has had little to do with underlying fundamentals. We're playing a game of economic musical chairs, but the Fed can't resist continuing to turn the crank on the music box.

noro78

I have a very easy rule in predicting bubbles... if you look at a chart of the asset in question and it would hurt to sit on the leading edge of it... it's probably a bubble. While this this highly unscientific it somehow resulted in real tangible gains for me.

guab

Oh man I hope so... more cars for me to buy!

konaforever

Macans and other Porsche SUV's have never held value as compared to GT cars.

GeoJoe

My dealer recently "verbally" offered me MSRP (what I paid) for my GT4, on a trade in if I go for a 991.2 GT3. It's a year old, with 7000 miles, a new 3rd gear and a bunch of track days. To me, this means that I should be able to get even more on the open market, but probably smarter to trade her in.

I'm on the 991.2 6mt, PTS list, supposedly, and may go that route if the 918 owners don't scoop 'em all up first.