TJF

I was hoping for 2017 also, but was fortunate and got an allocation for 2016 just recently.
They will end production this summer and think the count will be between 3,000 to 4,000 cars is my guess.
I agree it's probably 2018 or 19 before they produce another round.

mooty

just drive it.

matttheboatman

Hello Bardman,

My situation was unique, looking to free up some finances for pending real estate deal. In US, we don't have luxury tax, or duties. The only expenses would be a couple hundred dollars in title fees and sales tax. Sales taxes are eliminated by receiving a credit for structuring the existing car as a "courtesy trade" with the dealer. So, if you sell an existing car for MSRP, you can get a new one for approximately the same cost.

That plan only works if you can actually get a new one!

GeoffJr@Isringhausen

I heard they're all going to be 2016's with next gen being a 2018 or 2019.

Beantown Kman

Makes sense. Thanks for weighing in!

HiWind

Interesting ... More detail please

When you say recently? Production month?

Also the reasonably broadly established numbers per the RL GT4 registry and various CLs* is 2200-2650 ... Where dyu get 3-4k?

* cleaning leddies

Jimmy-D

^Agree - I think approx. 1500 to the States and another 1000 every where else. I thought ~2500 world-wide prod.

GeoffJr@Isringhausen

There has been 1,150 produced for the U.S. so far.. I bet there will be around 1,250 total.

HiWind

Thanks Geoff (and maki)

Uncle Jed

BMW produced 983 1M coupe's for North America of which approximately 740 were for the USA. Given the way that car has held its value since 2011, I think these production numbers bode well for future 2016 GT4 values.

Uncle Jed

s2ktaxi

The difference though is the GT4 has a higher MSRP - which tends to thin the demand by a little bit Ultimately, the bigger factor is what the replacement GT4 costs or has as an engine/transmission.

rk-d

Over 6000 worldwide. Very much unlike the GT4, BMW kept the vast majority LHD Euro spec.

Dr. Ferdinand

The 1///M is a good example, and to some extent very comparable IMO, per my logic (however flawed it may be ) articulated further below.

I totally agree that the 'next gen' GT4 will have a lot to do with values of the 981 variant. There will still be factors that the 981 will have going for it (trailblazer status [despite a lack of racing history], etc. and as you pointed forced induction/choice of tranny/GT3 parts overlap, etc. will all be key factors).

As far as the higher MSRP - you certainly have a point when looking at things from absolute figure perspective. But if we think relatively (say vs. Porsche offerings and P-car price of entry), the GT4 we all know offers a good bang for the Porsche dollar. While the 1///M would be likely cheaper than a GT4 in absolute terms, I have a feeling the lower 'price of Porsche GT entry' will actually bring a new segment of buyers, rather than thin out the heard. Again, purely my logic, as flawed as it may be.

You win the numbers argument (6000 is higher than 2000 or whatever the number of GT4s ends up being). But let's look at things on both an absolute and a relative basis, especially as it applies here in the USA.

BMW imported and sold 739 1///Ms in the US - all produced within a 4 month production span, mind you. There were roughly 360 BMW dealerships in the USA at the time (2011), so on average each dealer got 2. For reference, my Porsche dealer got 11 GT4s. (in reality BMW deployed a crafty 'formula', where each dealer was guaranteed at least one car, and subsequent allocations were 50% a function of total sales of each dealership and 50% of ///M cars sales for each dealership - ensuring larger dealers get more allocations relative to smaller sized/regional dealers).

We can also consider how 739 stacks up against total platform sales (e.g. non-M E82 1-series, other ///M cars, etc.) vs 1400 (or whatever the US GT4 number ends up being) and total 981 Cayman sales. Much higher % in the latter. Simply how the numbers play out, until these cars hit the 25 yr rule where you can import them from anywhere (which by then will likely be changed), there will be half as many 1///Ms as GT4s. Splitting hairs here, as both are essentially limited, hard to acquire, and highly coveted - hence why I think there are more similarities than difference...

There was a lot of speculation prices of 1///M would soften when the next gen platform (now 2-series), and specifically the M235i comes out. Didn't happen. Then there was continued speculation prices of 1///M would soften when the F8x M3/M4 comes. Didn't happen. Speculations continue it will finally soften when the M2 comes out. Likely not going to happen (M2 will no doubt be a terrific car, however it will be produced over a 4 yr model run). Well kept 1///Ms continue to trade 20-30% above their original MSRPs.

Many dealers were charging huge markups (beyond just Cali). I actually had secured two allocations, and instead of selling one for the going rate of $10K, I gave it to an auto enthusiast - asking nothing in exchange. And there were many dealers that actually sold the car below MSRP to its top customers and brand loyalists (in fact just about all I know of honored the 7% discount for Euro Delivery). So a silent kuddos to many of those honorable gentlemen, including my SA. Hopefully folks here have had similar experience with their Porsche SAs.

So I think there are some logical similarities (low prod numbers and exclusivity, high desirability, dealer/secondary market gauging, parts bin - but from the fabulous kind - car, lowest price of entry [///M and GT respectively], devoted cult following, first of its kind for the platform, big performance bargain, a driver's car, automotive press coverage praise, etc.) I can go on and on but feel there are more similarities than differences. FWIW, Hagerty has them both on the top-10 future classic list. To me, they are instant classics

2fnquik

Buying cars for their future valuation seems like a losing proposition. There are much better ways to make money.

rave426

I'd argue but I need more coffee