Cayenne April sales number released – It’s doing just fine!
05-02-2003, 02:11 PM
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Cayenne April sales number released – It’s doing just fine!
In response to all those who have predicted doom and failure for the Cayenne (see Auto Spies Perspective @ <a href="http://www.imakenews.com/autospies/e_article000147657.cfm" target="_blank">www.imakenews.com/autospies/e_article000147657.cfm</a> ), let the numbers speak for themselves - <a href="http://www.theautochannel.com/F/news/2003/05/01/160479.html" target="_blank">www.theautochannel.com/F/news/2003/05/01/160479.html</a> .
Let’s take a look at these numbers and see just what they mean:
- In March of this year, 911 sales were down 23% and Boxster sales were down 28% from the same month the previous year.
- Now, in April, it looks like the 911 sales are down 16% again while Boxster sales are down 29% from the same month last year.
- Year to date, the 911 is down 22% after 4 months and the Boxster is down a whopping 29% after 4 months.
- However, because of the Cayenne, Porsche sales as a whole were up 26% for March and now 46% for April.
- The Cayenne sold 854 units in the last 15 days of last month and 1353 units in the full month of April. If you project that out on an annual basis, that comes out to 17,656 cars for a 12 month period. Even if you just take April’s figure and project that out over 12 months (April is an average month in the car business – not as good as the summers, but much better than the winters, so it’s a good month to use for projecting out), you still come up with 16,236 units for the year.
- It is my understanding that Porsche was looking to produce about 25,000 units of the Cayenne in its first full year, of which about 50% are slated to come to the US, or 12,500 units, while 30% (7,500) will stay in Germany and the other 20% (5,000) will be ROW. At the pace that they are currently selling, Porsche should have no problem selling all 12,500 unit for the US in the next 12 months.
- Considering that I am still getting asked daily by people driving late model Mercedes, BMWs and Lexus “Wow, that is a beautiful SUV. Who makes it?” and then they are shocked to find out that it is a Porsche, I think that there is still a huge segment of the market that can easily afford the vehicle but just don’t know that it even exists. Once a few more hits the streets, I think the sales numbers will grow even more than the current level.
Porsche’s main reasoning for building the Cayenne was that in the event of a down market for sports cars (such as 1990-1993), Porsche would still be able to survive by offering a product that could weather those years. According to Porsche CEO Wiedeking, the Cayenne can break even if the plant is running at 20% capacity, versus 70% for the other models. Also, it will only takes 250 employees to produce the 25,000 Cayennes versus 3,500 employees needed to produce the 32,000 911s and Boxsters scheduled for the year. In light of these facts, I think that Porsche has done a wonderful thing to secure it’s future by bringing the Cayenne to market, and based on the numbers, I think they are right on.
Karl
Let’s take a look at these numbers and see just what they mean:
- In March of this year, 911 sales were down 23% and Boxster sales were down 28% from the same month the previous year.
- Now, in April, it looks like the 911 sales are down 16% again while Boxster sales are down 29% from the same month last year.
- Year to date, the 911 is down 22% after 4 months and the Boxster is down a whopping 29% after 4 months.
- However, because of the Cayenne, Porsche sales as a whole were up 26% for March and now 46% for April.
- The Cayenne sold 854 units in the last 15 days of last month and 1353 units in the full month of April. If you project that out on an annual basis, that comes out to 17,656 cars for a 12 month period. Even if you just take April’s figure and project that out over 12 months (April is an average month in the car business – not as good as the summers, but much better than the winters, so it’s a good month to use for projecting out), you still come up with 16,236 units for the year.
- It is my understanding that Porsche was looking to produce about 25,000 units of the Cayenne in its first full year, of which about 50% are slated to come to the US, or 12,500 units, while 30% (7,500) will stay in Germany and the other 20% (5,000) will be ROW. At the pace that they are currently selling, Porsche should have no problem selling all 12,500 unit for the US in the next 12 months.
- Considering that I am still getting asked daily by people driving late model Mercedes, BMWs and Lexus “Wow, that is a beautiful SUV. Who makes it?” and then they are shocked to find out that it is a Porsche, I think that there is still a huge segment of the market that can easily afford the vehicle but just don’t know that it even exists. Once a few more hits the streets, I think the sales numbers will grow even more than the current level.
Porsche’s main reasoning for building the Cayenne was that in the event of a down market for sports cars (such as 1990-1993), Porsche would still be able to survive by offering a product that could weather those years. According to Porsche CEO Wiedeking, the Cayenne can break even if the plant is running at 20% capacity, versus 70% for the other models. Also, it will only takes 250 employees to produce the 25,000 Cayennes versus 3,500 employees needed to produce the 32,000 911s and Boxsters scheduled for the year. In light of these facts, I think that Porsche has done a wonderful thing to secure it’s future by bringing the Cayenne to market, and based on the numbers, I think they are right on.
Karl
05-02-2003, 02:31 PM
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Thanks for your informed perspective. All your points are valid.
Wouldn't it be great if this boost to Porsche's bottom line was passed onto all of its customers with a slightly saner pricing structure, especially on replacement parts?
Wouldn't it be great if this boost to Porsche's bottom line was passed onto all of its customers with a slightly saner pricing structure, especially on replacement parts?
05-02-2003, 02:38 PM
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As a bit of a level setting perspective, Lexus sold over 7,600 RX's in April and even the maligned (by some here) FX from Infiniti sold over 2,100 in April. If you sold 1 car last month and 2 cars this month, you could claim that sales rose by 100% <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />
I guess what your stats above mean is that the 911 and the Boxster should be discontinued for lackluster sales and Porsche should sell only Cayennes? <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />
Taking your projections out doesn't match the total sales target for the Cayenne for the year, and as everyone knows sales are really high near introduction and then taper off, so using April as an average for either the Cayenne or the Lexus RX would be "risky" at best.
Just trying to put it all into perspective. Feel free to form whatever subjective comments you deem necessary.
I guess what your stats above mean is that the 911 and the Boxster should be discontinued for lackluster sales and Porsche should sell only Cayennes? <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />
Taking your projections out doesn't match the total sales target for the Cayenne for the year, and as everyone knows sales are really high near introduction and then taper off, so using April as an average for either the Cayenne or the Lexus RX would be "risky" at best.
Just trying to put it all into perspective. Feel free to form whatever subjective comments you deem necessary.
05-02-2003, 02:43 PM
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Hey here's some more "math" for you.
In the last 15 days of March Porsche sold 854 units, or 1,708 per month. In April Porsche sold 1,353 units, down 355 units on a per month basis from the month before. Extrapolating out these sales, following months should be:
May 2003 - 998 units
June 2003 - 643 units
July 2003 - 288 units
August 2003 - -67 Units as Porsche begins its Cayenne Buy-Back program.
See, math can prove anything! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />
In the last 15 days of March Porsche sold 854 units, or 1,708 per month. In April Porsche sold 1,353 units, down 355 units on a per month basis from the month before. Extrapolating out these sales, following months should be:
May 2003 - 998 units
June 2003 - 643 units
July 2003 - 288 units
August 2003 - -67 Units as Porsche begins its Cayenne Buy-Back program.
See, math can prove anything! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />
05-02-2003, 04:26 PM
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With all due respect Karl I think you're nuts to predict "success" based on the first month's numbers. History is rife with autos that were an initial "success" only to see sales fall off or a few months or years later. To cite a recent example, the PT Cruiser was so sought after people were initially paying 10K over list- and while sales are still respectable they're nowhere near the initial months figures.
05-02-2003, 04:31 PM
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Ken,
First off, let me state that the reasons I put those number up were specifically in relation to Porsche's own business and how it relates to Porsche's business plan (Cayenne vs. 911 & Boxster sales). I could care less how Infiniti or Lexus is running their business. I am not trying to compete with other companies, as they are not relevant to my analysis. I don't recall mentioning anything about the FX45 in my original post.
Porsche's goal is to sell 12,500 Cayennes in the US in 12 months. That about 1042 cars a month. That's it. It doesn't want to be like Lexus or Infiniti. There is no interst in selling 7700 Cayennes a month like Lexus or even 3000 Cayennes a month. Heck, why not set your comparative sights higher, like on the Ford Explorer or the Chevy Trailblazer. They all sold over 15,000 cars last month.
As for your extrapolation of March sales based on a 15 day month, if you had actually been interested in a Cayenne, you would have known that March sales were really based on a culmination of an 18 month selling campaign with Cayenne advertising and dealer calls and mailouts. However, they only had 15 days last month to actually close the 18 months of pre-sales. Then, based on your rationale, that would have been only 854 sales on 18 months of advertising and selling time. Gee, that averages out to be 47 cars a month. Since demand has finally been met with the actual introduction and sale of the car in March, then all the sales in April must be new sales. So Porsche jumped from 47 cars a month to 1353 cars a month. That's about a 2800% increase. Using you logic, Porsche should be selling over 1 million Cayennes a month by July. Maybe then Porsche can buy Renault and phase out Nissan (Infiniti).
As for your argument that sales will taper off, I agree that will probably be the case one day, likely sometime AFTER sales have reached its peak, which is at least a year or more away. But considering that the goal is ONLY 12,500 car for the first year, I don't think we have peaked yet.
As for math being able to prove anything, it only benefits those that have something to prove. You know, those who spew numbers about how Corvette Z-06 betters the numbers of a 911 in everything, including price, sales volume, or those with FX-45s who can't seem to realize that we just don't care about people like you. Why don't you get rid of your Boxster and get a Honda S2000. It's faster and cheaper and probably more reliable.
Bantering and debating with the ignorant and irrational is not something in which I usually partake. It's almost like trying to use reason and facts with liberals (Sorry to all you Democrats. I didn't mean to imply that you were in the same classification as FX45 owners who feel compelled to rationalize and justify their purchases on a Porsche Cayenne forum)
That's it for me. I've said my peace. I must now hurry over to the FX forum and start the "Why didn't you buy a Lexus RX" thread and discuss with them why 7600 RXs sold is so much better than 2100 FXs.
Karl
First off, let me state that the reasons I put those number up were specifically in relation to Porsche's own business and how it relates to Porsche's business plan (Cayenne vs. 911 & Boxster sales). I could care less how Infiniti or Lexus is running their business. I am not trying to compete with other companies, as they are not relevant to my analysis. I don't recall mentioning anything about the FX45 in my original post.
Porsche's goal is to sell 12,500 Cayennes in the US in 12 months. That about 1042 cars a month. That's it. It doesn't want to be like Lexus or Infiniti. There is no interst in selling 7700 Cayennes a month like Lexus or even 3000 Cayennes a month. Heck, why not set your comparative sights higher, like on the Ford Explorer or the Chevy Trailblazer. They all sold over 15,000 cars last month.
As for your extrapolation of March sales based on a 15 day month, if you had actually been interested in a Cayenne, you would have known that March sales were really based on a culmination of an 18 month selling campaign with Cayenne advertising and dealer calls and mailouts. However, they only had 15 days last month to actually close the 18 months of pre-sales. Then, based on your rationale, that would have been only 854 sales on 18 months of advertising and selling time. Gee, that averages out to be 47 cars a month. Since demand has finally been met with the actual introduction and sale of the car in March, then all the sales in April must be new sales. So Porsche jumped from 47 cars a month to 1353 cars a month. That's about a 2800% increase. Using you logic, Porsche should be selling over 1 million Cayennes a month by July. Maybe then Porsche can buy Renault and phase out Nissan (Infiniti).
As for your argument that sales will taper off, I agree that will probably be the case one day, likely sometime AFTER sales have reached its peak, which is at least a year or more away. But considering that the goal is ONLY 12,500 car for the first year, I don't think we have peaked yet.
As for math being able to prove anything, it only benefits those that have something to prove. You know, those who spew numbers about how Corvette Z-06 betters the numbers of a 911 in everything, including price, sales volume, or those with FX-45s who can't seem to realize that we just don't care about people like you. Why don't you get rid of your Boxster and get a Honda S2000. It's faster and cheaper and probably more reliable.
Bantering and debating with the ignorant and irrational is not something in which I usually partake. It's almost like trying to use reason and facts with liberals (Sorry to all you Democrats. I didn't mean to imply that you were in the same classification as FX45 owners who feel compelled to rationalize and justify their purchases on a Porsche Cayenne forum)
That's it for me. I've said my peace. I must now hurry over to the FX forum and start the "Why didn't you buy a Lexus RX" thread and discuss with them why 7600 RXs sold is so much better than 2100 FXs.
Karl
05-02-2003, 04:43 PM
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EuroCarNut, I appreciate your post and think that regardless of how the math is done, that Porsche is well on it's way to proving that the Cayenne is a good vehicle to diversify into. As it pains me to admit, Ken2KS has a point about extrapolating the sales numbers to the entire year. But we should understand, statistics are tools we use to mathmatically prove the intuitively obvious, the Cayenne is selling well, despite the economic conditions in the US at present. I also believe that Porsche whether Germany or PCNA, has not done a great job of launching the Cayenne. The delays, lack of information, lack of accessories have contributed to the unease that on-the-fence buyers have intimated on this forum. 911 and Boxster sales are down due to the economy, the Cayenne is selling well because it allows a different type of economic decision based on it's more practical nature for most buyers, and you still get to call in a Porsche. I know that I have personally put off buying another 911, simply because I can not justify a toy. Although, with prices being what they are for recent vintage 911s I might reconsider this summer.
As the economy picks up, I think we are all going to see that the Porsche Cayenne play was a great deal for the company. I, for one, am extremely happy with my decision to purchase the Cayenne. Though I remain a critic of Porsche in general for the poor attention to launch detail that would have made the Cayenne ownership experience that much better. This too shall pass and I will continue to support the Marque, though, I will take them to task a little more on the next deal.
Thanks again for your post, inquiring minds are interested. Appreciate the thoughts.
As the economy picks up, I think we are all going to see that the Porsche Cayenne play was a great deal for the company. I, for one, am extremely happy with my decision to purchase the Cayenne. Though I remain a critic of Porsche in general for the poor attention to launch detail that would have made the Cayenne ownership experience that much better. This too shall pass and I will continue to support the Marque, though, I will take them to task a little more on the next deal.
Thanks again for your post, inquiring minds are interested. Appreciate the thoughts.
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05-02-2003, 04:59 PM
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George,
I am not predicting long term success for the Cayenne, as I do not know what the future holds. All it takes is a couple of (or even one) major recalls for this to be a big failure.
However, I am just stating that AS SALES CURRENTLY STAND, the Cayenne seems to be coming along according to Porsche's plan. Based on current sales, it looks like year one targets are well within reach, barring any catastrophic events. According to Porsche, it won't take many sales for it to be a success, as all the R&D costs are already paid for and only 20% capacity is necessary to break even. I don’t know what demand for the vehicle will be in 3 years. I DO KNOW that I am stopped at least 3 times a day by inquisitive bystanders with positive reactions to the vehicle. With 2500 miles on the car already, I have only had 1 person that told me that they did not like it, and that was a close friend of mine who is a diehard 911 guy. Otherwise reaction has only been positive.
As for Chrysler PT sales, I think the PT has recouped it R&D costs and is currently a profit center for DiamlerChrysler. Even if its sales came to a halt today, the PT has satisfied its intended purpose for DiamlerChrysler, which is what manufacturers hope all its vehicles would do. Anything on top of that is gravy. So even though sales of the PT Cruiser has slowed down, it is still a success in DiamlerChrysler’s coffer.
Karl
I am not predicting long term success for the Cayenne, as I do not know what the future holds. All it takes is a couple of (or even one) major recalls for this to be a big failure.
However, I am just stating that AS SALES CURRENTLY STAND, the Cayenne seems to be coming along according to Porsche's plan. Based on current sales, it looks like year one targets are well within reach, barring any catastrophic events. According to Porsche, it won't take many sales for it to be a success, as all the R&D costs are already paid for and only 20% capacity is necessary to break even. I don’t know what demand for the vehicle will be in 3 years. I DO KNOW that I am stopped at least 3 times a day by inquisitive bystanders with positive reactions to the vehicle. With 2500 miles on the car already, I have only had 1 person that told me that they did not like it, and that was a close friend of mine who is a diehard 911 guy. Otherwise reaction has only been positive.
As for Chrysler PT sales, I think the PT has recouped it R&D costs and is currently a profit center for DiamlerChrysler. Even if its sales came to a halt today, the PT has satisfied its intended purpose for DiamlerChrysler, which is what manufacturers hope all its vehicles would do. Anything on top of that is gravy. So even though sales of the PT Cruiser has slowed down, it is still a success in DiamlerChrysler’s coffer.
Karl
05-02-2003, 05:09 PM
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Geez I got email that I was "stirring the pot" here in the Cayenne forum and not to do that. I was just questioning the extrapolation of the "math" used to present that argument, I didn't say word one about the Cayenne.
Apologies if someone thought I did.
Humor, check into it! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" /> <---- Note the Smiley-Face!!!
Apologies if someone thought I did.
Humor, check into it! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" /> <---- Note the Smiley-Face!!!
05-03-2003, 06:28 AM
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Going back to the original link to the Autospies article, my doubts regarding the websites knowledge and accuracy are well and truly confirmed. Even a brief 15 minutes researching Porsche AG's financial position would have made the writer realise what a load of horse poo he was writing.....
As most of us know, the Cayenne was developed out of cash reserves, the company is utterly debt free and consequentley able to make profit out of much smaller car production numbers than they are currently outputting. The model 996 model range is quite possiblly tailing off from it's peak sales of previous years. However we are also slap bang in the middle of a recession and most informed comentators continue to comment on the excellent price positioning for these models. Toss in their acclaimed ability and the 997 round the corner.... I think the Main Porsche AG have reason to relax....
The Boxster is an interesting question - it too has a replacement coming, how soon I'm not sure. It has sold phenomenally well and quite possibly saved the company. Can a new model sell as well in the future? Does Porsche need an even cheaper entry level model? Whatever - Porsche is in rude financial health whilst the motor industry around it most certainly isn't - It has more options than many of manufacturers could dream of.
Oh and the Cayenne's success? There is going to be a years waiting list here in the UK - vehicles are being sold at premiums "off list". If Porsche doesn't meet its first and second year production targets worldwide I'll eat my hat.....
And as for Autospies comments regarding dealership improvements - I haven't seen many dealers decide to drop Porsche rather than bring their premises up to scratch and in line with the corporate design.....
As most of us know, the Cayenne was developed out of cash reserves, the company is utterly debt free and consequentley able to make profit out of much smaller car production numbers than they are currently outputting. The model 996 model range is quite possiblly tailing off from it's peak sales of previous years. However we are also slap bang in the middle of a recession and most informed comentators continue to comment on the excellent price positioning for these models. Toss in their acclaimed ability and the 997 round the corner.... I think the Main Porsche AG have reason to relax....
The Boxster is an interesting question - it too has a replacement coming, how soon I'm not sure. It has sold phenomenally well and quite possibly saved the company. Can a new model sell as well in the future? Does Porsche need an even cheaper entry level model? Whatever - Porsche is in rude financial health whilst the motor industry around it most certainly isn't - It has more options than many of manufacturers could dream of.
Oh and the Cayenne's success? There is going to be a years waiting list here in the UK - vehicles are being sold at premiums "off list". If Porsche doesn't meet its first and second year production targets worldwide I'll eat my hat.....
And as for Autospies comments regarding dealership improvements - I haven't seen many dealers decide to drop Porsche rather than bring their premises up to scratch and in line with the corporate design.....
05-03-2003, 11:07 AM
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Christian, You've added a nice cap to a dialog that has been going on since the Cayenne was announced & this forum was initiated.
Karl, it is always a good idea to show evidence, and your data is a foundation of analysis for both the prejudiced as well as objective. Thanks.
The point that Porsche might just succeed w/ the C is the most relevant one, isn't it? 4+ year run & leveraging tech. development into other product lines will probably suffice. Beyond that is gravy, & they may get that too.
So, if Porsche continues to remain independent, will the C be blamed?
Karl, it is always a good idea to show evidence, and your data is a foundation of analysis for both the prejudiced as well as objective. Thanks.
The point that Porsche might just succeed w/ the C is the most relevant one, isn't it? 4+ year run & leveraging tech. development into other product lines will probably suffice. Beyond that is gravy, & they may get that too.
So, if Porsche continues to remain independent, will the C be blamed?
05-03-2003, 08:17 PM
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Karl,
I think your post was original and interesting. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. I'm still no fan of the Cayenne styling, but I'm happy that the Cayenne is selling well. I agree with others who believe it was pragmatic and intelligent for Porsche to diversify its product line.
Ken, you have some good points to make, but seem determined to taint every one of them (and your Rennlist reputation) with your constant bantering about the Infiniti FX. Why not give it a rest?
I think your post was original and interesting. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. I'm still no fan of the Cayenne styling, but I'm happy that the Cayenne is selling well. I agree with others who believe it was pragmatic and intelligent for Porsche to diversify its product line.
Ken, you have some good points to make, but seem determined to taint every one of them (and your Rennlist reputation) with your constant bantering about the Infiniti FX. Why not give it a rest?
05-05-2003, 01:16 PM
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Great stuff here! No doubt that PAG has done a good thing here - one of WW's early moves was to reverse the early '70's move to have PES (Porsche Engineering) make money while the "car company" built image - each group must now "pay their own way", and while a sport sedan/coupe would have been cool, there are just too many players in the high end "car" markets, thus the move to an SUV. Christian - your analysis is spot on, save the debt comment - they are still paying off some of the long term debt incurred during the early '90's - but that debt has been "moved" to the importers (PCGB, PCNA, etc.).
My vote for one of the most well thought out threads ever!!!
Jeff
My vote for one of the most well thought out threads ever!!!
Jeff
05-05-2003, 05:42 PM
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Thanks Jeff, didn't know about the debt "transfer" to the importers - next time I get a chance I'll peruse their balance sheets too!!
Thinking further about a lot of the debate that has gone on regarding the financial and production decisions of the last few years it strikes me that the debate about the direction of Porsche is one borne from the fact that the company is in the unusual if not unique position of having so many choices.
The lack of prototype racing, complete reorganisation of production, parts production and stocking and reduction in model numbers over the last few years has left the company in arguably the best financial position it has ever been.
Many are uncomfortable about some of the decisions that have brought us to this point and the flip side of the rosy company performance is that, again arguably the industry is in as difficult state as it has ever been too.
I can't help thinking that the current Porsche Management are victims of their own success - they perhaps have too many options - increased racing budgets, extra models - where to they go next?
It seems that the new Boxster will include a lightweight cheaper entry level model which makes sense - As stated above I think the Cayenne will be a success and I suspect the 997 will hit the spot too. If you regard the Carrera GT as a 959 special and not a regular model the question remains - should an extra model be introduced, returning Porsche to the 4 model comany it was in the eighties....???
I'm not sure and as a final note in the current climate I can't help thinkig they would do well to carefully restrict production numbers of all models, keeping them just below demand - it's good to have to wait aliitle time for something as special as a new Porsche and it wouldn't hurt used residuals either....
Thinking further about a lot of the debate that has gone on regarding the financial and production decisions of the last few years it strikes me that the debate about the direction of Porsche is one borne from the fact that the company is in the unusual if not unique position of having so many choices.
The lack of prototype racing, complete reorganisation of production, parts production and stocking and reduction in model numbers over the last few years has left the company in arguably the best financial position it has ever been.
Many are uncomfortable about some of the decisions that have brought us to this point and the flip side of the rosy company performance is that, again arguably the industry is in as difficult state as it has ever been too.
I can't help thinking that the current Porsche Management are victims of their own success - they perhaps have too many options - increased racing budgets, extra models - where to they go next?
It seems that the new Boxster will include a lightweight cheaper entry level model which makes sense - As stated above I think the Cayenne will be a success and I suspect the 997 will hit the spot too. If you regard the Carrera GT as a 959 special and not a regular model the question remains - should an extra model be introduced, returning Porsche to the 4 model comany it was in the eighties....???
I'm not sure and as a final note in the current climate I can't help thinkig they would do well to carefully restrict production numbers of all models, keeping them just below demand - it's good to have to wait aliitle time for something as special as a new Porsche and it wouldn't hurt used residuals either....