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The best value of water cooled turbos

 
Old 01-14-2017, 05:53 PM
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aspriggsdds
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Default The best value of water cooled turbos

Hey guys!

I usually stick to the 991 Carrera forum, but I thought you may find this interesting. I like to make these youtube videos in my spare time and today I uploaded one about the pre-owned water cooled 911 Turbo market. I didn't realize that the prices of 997.1 Turbo had bottomed out until I complied all the data. It looks to me that it's a better deal than the 996 Turbo!

Anyway, take a look if you want, and let me know what you think! I posted a similar video last week on the Cayman forum and they seem to like it.

-Adam

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Old 01-14-2017, 06:23 PM
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estrellajon
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Great info Adam.
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Old 01-14-2017, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by estrellajon View Post
Great info Adam.
Thank you!
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Old 01-14-2017, 08:18 PM
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4ocious
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Excellent, your analysis is spot on. I'm going to hold on to my Guards Red 09 Cab 6MT for at least five more years. By then it should be worth over $100K. JMO.
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Old 01-14-2017, 08:34 PM
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Thanks for your post Adam!
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Old 01-14-2017, 11:54 PM
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Thanks guys. I'm glad you like it!
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Old 01-15-2017, 12:47 AM
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Nice doc!
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Old 01-15-2017, 08:13 PM
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Adam,
Do you mind posting the data used to prepare your graphics, a pdf file would be fine....I'm a statistical fan and the information you've shared is most interesting, however not far from what I'd expect.
Thank you for sharing!!! JB
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Old 01-15-2017, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted by johnbelk View Post
Adam,
Do you mind posting the data used to prepare your graphics, a pdf file would be fine....I'm a statistical fan and the information you've shared is most interesting, however not far from what I'd expect.
Thank you for sharing!!! JB
The graphs (and car ads) shown don't appear to separate out Tips from 6MTs, which, as we know, can have a pretty substantial price premium over the automatics.

I mean, it's still good data for an overall look at the market, just that there's also a little more to consider if you're looking for, say, a Tip cabrio vs a 6MT coupe.

Last edited by Skwerl; 01-15-2017 at 08:57 PM.
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Old 01-15-2017, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by johnbelk View Post
Adam,
Do you mind posting the data used to prepare your graphics, a pdf file would be fine....I'm a statistical fan and the information you've shared is most interesting, however not far from what I'd expect.
Thank you for sharing!!! JB
Here's a screen shot of the data! http://i.imgur.com/KkNBAAe.png

Originally Posted by Skwerl View Post
The graphs (and car ads) shown don't appear to separate out Tips from 6MTs, which, as we know, can have a pretty substantial price premium over the automatics.

I mean, it's still good data for an overall look at the market, just that there's also a little more to consider if you're looking for, say, a Tip cabrio vs a 6MT coupe.
Yea, on hindsight, I should have included the transmission differences. I'll not make that mistake in the future!
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Old 01-15-2017, 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Skwerl View Post
The graphs (and car ads) shown don't appear to separate out Tips from 6MTs, which, as we know, can have a pretty substantial price premium over the automatics.

I mean, it's still good data for an overall look at the market, just that there's also a little more to consider if you're looking for, say, a Tip cabrio vs a 6MT coupe.
I believe you're referring to Adam's sampling, which is the quantatative data I was hoping to receive. My hypothesis is that the data will reflect that regarless if he used the mean, median or mode to determine his averages, a sampling error may have occurred as follows..
I believe a sampling error may have incurred when the statistical characteristics of the 996-997 population were estimated from a subset, or sample, of that population. Since the sample may not have proportionally included all models (those you mentioned), of the population, statistics on the sample, such as means and quantiles, generally differ from the characteristics of the entire population, or parameters. For example, if one measures the sale of a sampling of 20 996s from the total of 56 sold, the average selling price of the 20 is typically not the same as the average price of the 56 (total sold). Since sampling is typically done to determine the characteristics of a whole population, the difference between the sample and population values is considered.
Exact measurement of sampling error is generally not feasible since the true population values are unknown (private sales, dealers, etc...); however, sampling error can often be estimated by probabilistic modeling of the sample.
In simple terms, a proportional sampling of let's say the 996 tips, manuals, cabs, coupes, of a given population would provide a statistical value with an standard deviation.
However to reach the outcome you're searching for, a more specific subset of the population would be needed...although my assumptions are the results would reflect what most already know and was revealed in Adam's graphics, that most 996s and 997s have some what plateaued at various model values, while the 991s are cliff diving....
Make sinse? "LugNut"

Last edited by johnbelk; 01-15-2017 at 11:10 PM. Reason: Stuff
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Old 01-15-2017, 11:18 PM
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John,

The data collection process is much simpler than what you're thinking. I should have mentioned it in the video. I've explained the process in other similar videos but I left it out since I figured repeat watchers were getting tired of hearing the same explanation every time. I'll find a way to include it from here on out.

Anyway, the data is collected from KBB and NADA. It's their suggested retail value of each year. In the past, I've compared cars with similar options and increasing mileage by year. For the most part, I've found that options and mileage to be insignificant so I left them both out for this analysis.

I hope that helps with what you are looking for.

-Adam
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Old 01-15-2017, 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by aspriggsdds View Post
Here's a screen shot of the data! http://i.imgur.com/KkNBAAe.png



Yea, on hindsight, I should have included the transmission differences. I'll not make that mistake in the future!
Adam,

Thank you!!! What will be interesting to watch statisticsly is if the premium for manuals gives way to Tips and PDKs across the 997.1/2 spectrum as a younger population become owners. My hypothesis is the value of manual 997s will decline as younger owners are able to afford PDK versions of the 997.2. However, the Tips may remain less in value to the 6-speeds manuals... Ha your next assignment.. TT Six-Speed Manuals vs. TT PDKs... Or 3.6 Metzger Turbos vs. 3.8 DFI Turbos...fun stuff.
Again thank you!!!
JB

Last edited by johnbelk; 01-15-2017 at 11:50 PM.
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Old 01-15-2017, 11:40 PM
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John,

Interesting stuff! You may be on to something there! And those are some really good ideas for analysis. I'm currently working on a ride quality video (using digital seismometer to for actual vibration readings), but I'll put those on the todo list!
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Old 01-15-2017, 11:48 PM
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Originally Posted by aspriggsdds View Post
John,

The data collection process is much simpler than what you're thinking. I should have mentioned it in the video. I've explained the process in other similar videos but I left it out since I figured repeat watchers were getting tired of hearing the same explanation every time. I'll find a way to include it from here on out.

Anyway, the data is collected from KBB and NADA. It's their suggested retail value of each year. In the past, I've compared cars with similar options and increasing mileage by year. For the most part, I've found that options and mileage to be insignificant so I left them both out for this analysis.

I hope that helps with what you are looking for.

-Adam
Adam
It does, and now understand and appreciate why your graphics are consistent with what we see occurring in the market. Your graphics would ceartainly be helpful to someone entering the 996, 997 and 991 market.
I myself prefer to purchase the newest Porsches that have plateaued in value and can be CPOd. With your data I can see it will be another year or two, before I start searching for a 991 TTS.
Thanks again...JB
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