997 future value analysis
 

Hi all,

A while ago I fetched some data on the current 997 market prices and ran some analysis over them. I made a short video about it and you can check out the result below.

Short summary: The average depreciation sits at around EUR 2900/year for the 997 non-S cars, but this varies greatly between the different models. The Carrera 4 Cabriolet, for example, is increasing in value with around EUR 2700/year.

I checked many different models and also investigated if some specific car features like transmission type or presence of the Chrono package have an effect on the depreciation. As often with these purely data-driven exercises, I found some effects which I thought were hard to explain. As such, I was hoping that the Porsche experts over here could indicate if these effects indeed have some merit. I, of course, may have found something which makes no sense. In particular, I would be curious to hear your thoughts about:
- Manual vs Automatic transmissions: I found a large difference, in terms of selling price and depreciation per year, between manual and automatic 996 cars. However, there is no evidence at all that this same effect would be present for the 997. I.e the price levels are the same for manual and automatic cars and also the depreciation per year doesn't differ significantly. Why would this be the case? My best guess is that the introduction of the PDK gearbox made the manuals less desirable. But this is purely speculating.
- For both the 996 and 997 I found that the Carrera 4 cabriolets are depreciating significantly less or even appreciating compared to the full market and the Carrera 4 coupes. Would anyone have an idea as to why the Carrera 4 Cabriolet is deviating so much from the market?

All the feedback is appreciated. Thanks.

Over 80% of 911 models sold since 2009 have the PDK. So there's no guessing about what is more popular.
I did not find enough base C4 cabs for sale to consider it a reasonable data sample. For example, there were 11 C4 cabs listed on CarGurus out of over 1000 911 models for sale... or 1%.

I looked at Porsche on CarGurus and several other popular internet sites and it appears that the basic C4 models, in any form, are the least popular by a huge margin. I just don't see how you can draw any conclusions from such limited data.

Great video! I'm looking forward to the Carrera S segment and fingers crossed, a U.S spec analysis if possible.

Pdk (Cab (c4 < c < c4s < c2s) < Coupe (c4 < c < c4s < c2s) ) < 6MT (Cab (c4 < c < c4s < c2s) < Coupe (c4 < c < c4s < c2s) )
Most desirable MT coupe c2s
Least pdk/tip cab c4

its a mindless waste of time. And the frothing hoards of manual owners on this forum will tell you your data is incorrect about pdk even though you are not the only one to find out what you've stated that PDK will perform as strong as manual in resale. It's a mental issue thats all.

Guy went through all this effort to put this "data" together for FWIW and make the video but insists on putting in the annoying backgound music, in addition to his accent and fast talking my mind can't process the information - I stopped watching at 1 Minute.

doesnt make sense.. you buy a carrera 4 if you live in cold climates.. and you buy a convertible in warm climates..

Well summed up and it seems like it needs to be summed up like you just did on a regular basis no matter how much documentation is being made available in terms of the sales of PDK cars vs. manuals. I don't care either way but shouldn't it be common knowledge by now that as the PDK was introduced, it quickly went to account for around 80% of the transmission of choice of ordered cars vs. manuals?

Swap the C4S with the C2S MT and I'd agree. There is no way a coupe C2S is more desirable than a C4S (not to me, and not to most people based on market pricing).

And I will admit you need to put GTS coupes above both.

These cars aren't old enough yet for manual vs PDK to really matter much in resale for the Carreras. People are still daily driving them.
Wait another ten years when the info about lugging PDKs contributing to bore scoring in the 9A1 permeates and threads start popping up about PDK repair bills out of warranty. And also ultimately when Porsche manuals do eventually disappear from the options list.

No, it is a supply/demand issue.

Greater demand for lower supply in the used 911 market for manuals. They are therefore much more desirable.

I am still baffled by the popularity of PDK in a sports car. A 10th of a second is not worth the lack of engagement. Sport Plus/Manual Mode is better, but more like playing a video game than shifting.

I traded my PDK for a manual within a year. To be fair, it's a 3rd "fun" car. Maybe I would feel differently if it was a daily, but I have different requirements for that.

Porsche has obviously realized there is a market for people who want to drive their car vs. being driven. Why else would they reintroduce the manual GT3? Certainly not for performance.

I share your theory, that lumping along in 7th great at 35mph is lugging and hard on the engine. In addition, the complexity and lack of serviceability of the PDK is a long term liability.

Sorry if this has already been stated but, in regards to the C4, I believe it was the lowest overall production variant of the carrera (at lease for 997.2s). Which would make sense, given the lack of available comps.

And while there are great points about pdk, regardless of your stance and/or its potential efficiencies, it is the more efficient choice for the track enthusiast.