Economist - End of the Combustion Engine
08-29-2017, 10:55 PM
#61
Burning Brakes
Originally Posted by MagnusB
Milton Friedman is in the dustbin nowadays, if you follow economics you would know that.
Self interest and hard work out of style. Group think and Socialism in style. Hell ya!!!!
Out with that old style of thinking, amirite???
08-29-2017, 11:00 PM
#62
08-29-2017, 11:04 PM
#63
Really cool news commentary..... you may need a subscription to read it but I think the magazine allows x-number of free accesses... So here goes...
https://www.economist.com/news/leade...ed-world-death
Peace
Bruce in Philly
Final paragraphs from the piece:
The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.
Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.
https://www.economist.com/news/leade...ed-world-death
Peace
Bruce in Philly
Final paragraphs from the piece:
The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.
Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.
Interesting to see the ranting on here from people not wanting to give up the IC. But the world will move on with or without you.
There is no stopping the electric engine. It's just better.
Now, I hate the current electric cars. The batteries are way too heavy making the cars absolute pigs. I don't want to give up the IC in sports cars until the weight is at least similar.
08-30-2017, 02:46 AM
#64
Nordschleife Master
Interesting to see the ranting on here from people not wanting to give up the IC. But the world will move on with or without you.
There is no stopping the electric engine. It's just better.
Now, I hate the current electric cars. The batteries are way too heavy making the cars absolute pigs. I don't want to give up the IC in sports cars until the weight is at least similar.
There is no stopping the electric engine. It's just better.
Now, I hate the current electric cars. The batteries are way too heavy making the cars absolute pigs. I don't want to give up the IC in sports cars until the weight is at least similar.
08-30-2017, 03:16 AM
#65
And you think batteries will change (improve) drastically? You are up for a big surprise or you are OK losing the freedom the current car gives. It's all about freedom like Milton Friedman said. And i do not care if he is not fashionable in economics circles - he just made sense and that is timeless.
Non sports cars only have a couple of years before it's game over.
Odd, for me Friedman comes across as an arrogant condescending fool.
08-30-2017, 09:01 AM
#66
RL Community Team
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Who said batteries were the only power source? Proton exchange membranes are still being developed...... That is what is so interesting.... the unpredictability of innovation. Super capacitors too.
Peace
Bruce in Philly
Peace
Bruce in Philly
Last edited by Bruce In Philly; 08-30-2017 at 10:22 AM.
08-30-2017, 09:42 AM
#67
Burning Brakes
Originally Posted by ADias
And you think batteries will change (improve) drastically? You are up for a big surprise or you are OK losing the freedom the current car gives. It's all about freedom like Milton Friedman said. And i do not care if he is not fashionable in economics circles - he just made sense and that is timeless.
08-30-2017, 10:00 AM
#68
Burning Brakes
Originally Posted by MagnusB
I don't think batteries will improve drastically, it will take some time. But it's just a matter of time. Batteries improve about 5-8% per year and that is certainly not slow.
Non sports cars only have a couple of years before it's game over.
Odd, for me Friedman comes across as an arrogant condescending fool.
Non sports cars only have a couple of years before it's game over.
Odd, for me Friedman comes across as an arrogant condescending fool.
09-10-2017, 10:14 AM
#69
Toyota is skeptical regarding a strong move to electric cars in the near future. "we are two to three breakthroughs away" from making electric cars consumer friendly. To me, this means sales will be limited for some time.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/toyo...f-driving.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/toyo...f-driving.html
09-10-2017, 03:40 PM
#71
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Thread Starter
I spoke to my buddy from Ford this morning.... he said they are moving to electric and the belief is that is the way of the future.
However, I just don't believe oil producing companies and countries are just going to let it happen. They are going to continue to lower prices and pump pump pump..... and try to choke out the new technology..... they will not succeed, but they will slow its adoption.
Good news for us, we will be facing record low gas prices for the next twenty years (unless a big war or whatever).
Peace
Bruce in Philly
See here that Shell has adopted a "Lower-Forever" mindset. I saw this announcement in a few different news outlets. They say they are tying price to peaking of demand, but I don't believe that. Demand has never really effected prices... heck, the world is using more oil than ever before in history and yet we have historically low pricing (after inflation).... Once an oil well is punched, they pump for very little cost.... and continue to figure out how to get more. Demand is always easily met simply by pumping more.... they really don;t have to make it.
http://www.naturalgasintel.com/artic...ude-oil-prices
However, I just don't believe oil producing companies and countries are just going to let it happen. They are going to continue to lower prices and pump pump pump..... and try to choke out the new technology..... they will not succeed, but they will slow its adoption.
Good news for us, we will be facing record low gas prices for the next twenty years (unless a big war or whatever).
Peace
Bruce in Philly
See here that Shell has adopted a "Lower-Forever" mindset. I saw this announcement in a few different news outlets. They say they are tying price to peaking of demand, but I don't believe that. Demand has never really effected prices... heck, the world is using more oil than ever before in history and yet we have historically low pricing (after inflation).... Once an oil well is punched, they pump for very little cost.... and continue to figure out how to get more. Demand is always easily met simply by pumping more.... they really don;t have to make it.
http://www.naturalgasintel.com/artic...ude-oil-prices
09-11-2017, 01:49 AM
#72
Nordschleife Master
I spoke to my buddy from Ford this morning.... he said they are moving to electric and the belief is that is the way of the future.
However, I just don't believe oil producing companies and countries are just going to let it happen. They are going to continue to lower prices and pump pump pump..... and try to choke out the new technology..... they will not succeed, but they will slow its adoption.
Good news for us, we will be facing record low gas prices for the next twenty years (unless a big war or whatever).
Peace
Bruce in Philly
See here that Shell has adopted a "Lower-Forever" mindset. I saw this announcement in a few different news outlets. They say they are tying price to peaking of demand, but I don't believe that. Demand has never really effected prices... heck, the world is using more oil than ever before in history and yet we have historically low pricing (after inflation).... Once an oil well is punched, they pump for very little cost.... and continue to figure out how to get more. Demand is always easily met simply by pumping more.... they really don;t have to make it.
http://www.naturalgasintel.com/artic...ude-oil-prices
However, I just don't believe oil producing companies and countries are just going to let it happen. They are going to continue to lower prices and pump pump pump..... and try to choke out the new technology..... they will not succeed, but they will slow its adoption.
Good news for us, we will be facing record low gas prices for the next twenty years (unless a big war or whatever).
Peace
Bruce in Philly
See here that Shell has adopted a "Lower-Forever" mindset. I saw this announcement in a few different news outlets. They say they are tying price to peaking of demand, but I don't believe that. Demand has never really effected prices... heck, the world is using more oil than ever before in history and yet we have historically low pricing (after inflation).... Once an oil well is punched, they pump for very little cost.... and continue to figure out how to get more. Demand is always easily met simply by pumping more.... they really don;t have to make it.
http://www.naturalgasintel.com/artic...ude-oil-prices
When electrical storage develops to the point of (i) fully charging in 5 minutes or less (ii) for a range of 300 miles (iii) widely available charge stations anywhere in the country (iv) storage cells that last with full capacity 20-30 years, and and last but not least (v) be economically competitive with competing fuel sources, without government intervention, call me, and I will buy one. Those requirements are the tenets that characterize an ICE-gas-powered vehicle making it the freedom motion tool that we know. Anything less than that is a compromise we do not have to accept.
09-11-2017, 04:01 AM
#73
When electrical storage develops to the point of (i) fully charging in 5 minutes or less (ii) for a range of 300 miles (iii) widely available charge stations anywhere in the country (iv) storage cells that last with full capacity 20-30 years, and and last but not least (v) be economically competitive with competing fuel sources, without government intervention, call me, and I will buy one. Those requirements are the tenets that characterize an ICE-gas-powered vehicle making it the freedom motion tool that we know. Anything less than that is a compromise we do not have to accept.
The batteries are the #1 tech issue. # 2 issue is charging infrastructure. The rest of the car is relatively cheap to build at high rate of production compared to the complexities of an ICE and drivetrain.
Even when all that is solved, it's still (mostly, in the U.S.) a coal powered car which is definitely not zero emissions, as the kool aid drinkers would have you believe.
09-11-2017, 02:13 PM
#74
Burning Brakes
Originally Posted by mchrono
+1 So true!
The batteries are the #1 tech issue. # 2 issue is charging infrastructure. The rest of the car is relatively cheap to build at high rate of production compared to the complexities of an ICE and drivetrain.
Even when all that is solved, it's still (mostly, in the U.S.) a coal powered car which is definitely not zero emissions, as the kool aid drinkers would have you believe.
The batteries are the #1 tech issue. # 2 issue is charging infrastructure. The rest of the car is relatively cheap to build at high rate of production compared to the complexities of an ICE and drivetrain.
Even when all that is solved, it's still (mostly, in the U.S.) a coal powered car which is definitely not zero emissions, as the kool aid drinkers would have you believe.
09-11-2017, 02:28 PM
#75
Drifting
Oil prices are securely dictated by the relationship between supply and demand. However, we don't always see it that way at the pump because the production of oil is so variable and can be adjusted day-to-day. There are very few commodities where the international supply can be drastically changed in a matter of days.
In the seventies, when OPEC had a strangle-hold on the world's supply, you could easily see the relationship between supply and demand. Nowadays, there are other nations that push back against OPEC so even though demand is high, pump prices stay relatively low because those countries are competing against each other instead of colluding.
However, if the current trend continues, no matter what the global price of oil, western nations will make it harder and harder to sustain an ICE infrastructure (through legislation, taxation, regulation). This will artificially increase the cost of gas and supply and demand will cease to be important. It will just cost too much to drive an ICE.
This forces the cost of moving people and goods up (in the West), which pushes jobs/manufacturing overseas.
Pushing jobs overseas helps the economies of non-western nations, which means they burn more fossil fuels, which means the demand for fossil fuels doesn't go away, it just moves to another place.
We'll have a lot of electric cars to choose from, but nobody will be able to afford one because no one will have a job.
In the seventies, when OPEC had a strangle-hold on the world's supply, you could easily see the relationship between supply and demand. Nowadays, there are other nations that push back against OPEC so even though demand is high, pump prices stay relatively low because those countries are competing against each other instead of colluding.
However, if the current trend continues, no matter what the global price of oil, western nations will make it harder and harder to sustain an ICE infrastructure (through legislation, taxation, regulation). This will artificially increase the cost of gas and supply and demand will cease to be important. It will just cost too much to drive an ICE.
This forces the cost of moving people and goods up (in the West), which pushes jobs/manufacturing overseas.
Pushing jobs overseas helps the economies of non-western nations, which means they burn more fossil fuels, which means the demand for fossil fuels doesn't go away, it just moves to another place.
We'll have a lot of electric cars to choose from, but nobody will be able to afford one because no one will have a job.