Prices softening up.. Perhaps
02-18-2015, 11:54 AM
#46
Bubble or not, a "market saturation" of 993 turbos represents not nearly enough supply for demand or "wishful demand". The fact remains that far far too few of these cars are available compared to those shopping. Obviously, the most desirable are the quickest movers and drive the prices up even for the less desirable that might languish for longer periods. Keep in mind that the largest group of buyers (males who were maybe 18-25 when the 993 was introduced) are JUST NOW coming into the kind of income levels that would enable justification for such a purchase. Those guys don't care that equal money can but a 991 GT3 or better; nostalgia is like a drug.
The muscle car bubble hit at about 30-35 years for most, and we are dealing with FAR fewer numbers. Heck, there were more Shelby Mustangs produced in 1966' than ALL 993 turbos imported to U.S. from 96-98 including S models. Compare all air-cooled 911 turbos imported with all of the hi-po 60's muscle cars and the ratio is probably over 10:1. Granted, there is likely a much smaller market for 911's but there were also many many young men who had 911 Turbo posters (whether 930's, bad boy 964 turbos or "kills bugs fast" 993's) on their walls.
Call me delusional...50 years from now, a low mileage pristine 993 Turbo S will be considered priceless to automotive historians.
The muscle car bubble hit at about 30-35 years for most, and we are dealing with FAR fewer numbers. Heck, there were more Shelby Mustangs produced in 1966' than ALL 993 turbos imported to U.S. from 96-98 including S models. Compare all air-cooled 911 turbos imported with all of the hi-po 60's muscle cars and the ratio is probably over 10:1. Granted, there is likely a much smaller market for 911's but there were also many many young men who had 911 Turbo posters (whether 930's, bad boy 964 turbos or "kills bugs fast" 993's) on their walls.
Call me delusional...50 years from now, a low mileage pristine 993 Turbo S will be considered priceless to automotive historians.
Very well written piece Boober. I like your use of statistics to back up your thoughts.
BTW, you are SO right on nostalgia being like a drug! I was (still am) a huge Miami Vice fan. The show premiered my senior year in high school and aired thru my college years. My buddy's used to come over to my place on Friday nights at 9:00 to watch it and drink beer
before we'd go to the bars. We'd DROOL over Crockett's Ferrari Daytona 365 Spyder (which in reality was a replica of course as only 122 were ever made). I even have a picture of Crockett's Daytona on my office wall 
Anyway, recently I have had an oppoprtunity to buy a almost perfect replica of that 'Vice car. Of course I need another car like I need a hole in my head. Especially a 30+ year old car that is a "replica". But i can't get that car out of my head....for 30 years it's been stuck in there! And as a result of that nostalgia I'll probably end up buying it
02-18-2015, 12:20 PM
#47
Drifting
One of the best ways to know you're in a bubble is to count how many people insist that "nuh uh, this time it's different!" 
The fact that so much demand has materialized out of nowhere in the last 2 years shows how fickle and ephemeral the collector car market can be. In 15 years, 993TTs might very well be viewed as stodgy old heaps while buyers pay big collector bucks for Nismo GTRs.
The Bad Boys 911 example is particularly revealing, since the current 964 3.6 Turbo market is one of the most laughable aspects of the current boom. Anyone buying a $300k 3.6 Turbo could have easily bought one 2-3 years ago in cash without blinking.
The fact that so much demand has materialized out of nowhere in the last 2 years shows how fickle and ephemeral the collector car market can be. In 15 years, 993TTs might very well be viewed as stodgy old heaps while buyers pay big collector bucks for Nismo GTRs.
The Bad Boys 911 example is particularly revealing, since the current 964 3.6 Turbo market is one of the most laughable aspects of the current boom. Anyone buying a $300k 3.6 Turbo could have easily bought one 2-3 years ago in cash without blinking.
02-18-2015, 02:43 PM
#48
Racer
A couple of comments on the whole bubble thing. All Aircooled prices are up across the board even 914s. So this isn't limited to 993 Turbos and relative to the other cars the 993 Turbo prices are by no means outlandish. In fact, compared to their original selling prices they are certainly closer to those values than early and mid year Turbos are. So if this is a bubble I would contend it needs to be evaluated in context with all the Aircooled cars to determine when and if it will burst.
I for one find a $140K 993 Turbo to be far more attractive than a $110K 930 Turbo all things being equal.
I for one find a $140K 993 Turbo to be far more attractive than a $110K 930 Turbo all things being equal.
02-18-2015, 02:46 PM
#49
Drifting
It's also not just Porsches - Ferraris have seen (and are still seeing) quite the spike lately, too, along with other selected marques/models.
02-18-2015, 04:22 PM
#50
Racer
One other thing:
Someone please tell me of a previous Porsche model that after the depreciation cycle ended and values increased was subsequently re-evaluated as "an old heap" and dropped off the radar screen of Porsche enthusiasts.
Someone please tell me of a previous Porsche model that after the depreciation cycle ended and values increased was subsequently re-evaluated as "an old heap" and dropped off the radar screen of Porsche enthusiasts.
02-18-2015, 04:29 PM
#51
Drifting
"Old heaps" was hyperbolic. However, today's 21-year-olds will probably not have much interest in an air-cooled 40-year-old+ 911 once they are able to afford collector cars. I think the nostalgia factor is accepted by bubble believers and deniers alike...
Also, please refer to any past bubble, of anything, and all of the rationalizations that accompanied it - there's only a limited supply, prices may level but never go back down, they're only just now reaching their real value, this time is different, etc.
Also, please refer to any past bubble, of anything, and all of the rationalizations that accompanied it - there's only a limited supply, prices may level but never go back down, they're only just now reaching their real value, this time is different, etc.
02-18-2015, 05:04 PM
#52
Racer
If said 20 year olds are into Porsches they will. I have a buddy in his 40's who just got his first 356 and he was practically begging for someone to sell him a decent one. I agree that aircooled 911s may not be the entry point for most Porsche enthusiasts in 20 years but once they get hooked on the marque many will be drawn to them eventually. Would I sell a new GT3 for a 73 RS heck yes would Joe new car buyer who last owned a BMW and now wants to try a Porsche make the same trade if he didn't know all the facts probably not. Price adjustments will certainly happen as external factors influence the entire economy but I don't think that is what we mean by a bubble
02-18-2015, 06:46 PM
#53
Keep in mind that the largest group of buyers (males who were maybe 18-25 when the 993 was introduced) are JUST NOW coming into the kind of income levels that would enable justification for such a purchase. Those guys don't care that equal money can but a 991 GT3 or better; nostalgia is like a drug.
I remember good enough when I saw the first 911 turbo in 1976, at the time was a forbidden dream for a 18 years old boy
But I was allways clear to get a 911 when the times was right
I'm happy that I met my 993 Turbo in 2009
02-18-2015, 07:23 PM
#54
Very well written piece Boober. I like your use of statistics to back up your thoughts.
BTW, you are SO right on nostalgia being like a drug! I was (still am) a huge Miami Vice fan. The show premiered my senior year in high school and aired thru my college years. My buddy's used to come over to my place on Friday nights at 9:00 to watch it and drink beer before we'd go to the bars. We'd DROOL over Crockett's Ferrari Daytona 365 Spyder (which in reality was a replica of course as only 122 were ever made). I even have a picture of Crockett's Daytona on my office wall
Anyway, recently I have had an oppoprtunity to buy a almost perfect replica of that 'Vice car. Of course I need another car like I need a hole in my head. Especially a 30+ year old car that is a "replica". But i can't get that car out of my head....for 30 years it's been stuck in there! And as a result of that nostalgia I'll probably end up buying it
BTW, you are SO right on nostalgia being like a drug! I was (still am) a huge Miami Vice fan. The show premiered my senior year in high school and aired thru my college years. My buddy's used to come over to my place on Friday nights at 9:00 to watch it and drink beer
before we'd go to the bars. We'd DROOL over Crockett's Ferrari Daytona 365 Spyder (which in reality was a replica of course as only 122 were ever made). I even have a picture of Crockett's Daytona on my office wall Anyway, recently I have had an oppoprtunity to buy a almost perfect replica of that 'Vice car. Of course I need another car like I need a hole in my head. Especially a 30+ year old car that is a "replica". But i can't get that car out of my head....for 30 years it's been stuck in there! And as a result of that nostalgia I'll probably end up buying it
I was 22 in 1996 and in car design school in Detroit when I saw my first arena red turbo in person and that scene is vividly burned into my mind nearly 20 years later. The 993 turbo was my 90's dream car above all of the other great machines of the decade. My 80's dream car was a 1988 Ford Sierra Cosworth RS500 when I was a young punk. It would cost me nearly as much as my 993 just to get one of those over to the U.S. so I'm building a tribute from an 86' Merkur XR4Ti. I'm likely going to be spending close to $40k to have this car built when I probably couldn't sell it for half as much when finished. Most of the time, I'm sure I've gone mental, but the thought of having two of my original dream cars in my garage at the same time makes that young kid part of me very happy.
02-18-2015, 08:13 PM
#55
Absolutely right about being able to buy your childhood dream car. When I was 18 years old and witnessed the 993tt fly by our Volvo 245 at the Autobahn, I told myself. One day I will own one of those! Managed to realize my dream a year ago. It's the most beautiful car I own. Including the 4.0!
02-18-2015, 10:45 PM
#56
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I think there are three groups driving 993TT prices
1- guys who wanted one when growing up (poster fanboys)
2-collectors who want one of everything before scarcity dries up the market
3-flippers/dealers
That and the rapid rise of the long hoods. 25 years after they were built... the early 911 craze seemed to catch and now everyone thinks that they know which porsches are gonna be next.
then it just went crazy. Now everyone sees that long hoods have quadrupled in value since 2002 and because of this... looks to any later decent cars instead... and buys them thinking that they will be next.
You think they are going to rise because they did in the past... so you buy one so you don't miss out... lo and behold... the market rises.
seems like the gap between when a car is built... and when it hits it's price nadir keeps dropping. Especially for really rare Halo cars... sometimes they never drop... they just appreciate!
I personally use a fifteen year rule... roughly.
6 years ago you needed to buy cool early to mid 90's cars at their nadir.... 993's, Mazda rx7 R1's... Mercedes E500's and Toyota supra turbo's. All these are really hard to find cheap now... and are either already worth double the money from 6 years ago... or will be shortly... and are still rising.
Today that same nadir is on BMW Z3M coupe clownshoes, 996 turbos and GT3's...early 2000's cars... I suspect low mileage Audi TT baseball stitch interior cabrios and early coupes too. all the pundits are already pumping all these cars... just wait... they will climb.
in five years the bottom will have hit on Audi R8 coupes , 997 turbos, mid 2000s cars.... the pundits will be on them.
You just wait till the bottom stops falling out from under interesting cars that have a fan base... and buy them when everyone is saying they are boring and dumb. lower production numbers are better than higher. usually this is when the cars are 15 years old.
at first you look like a dork... then later you feel like a genius! Meanwhile... drive the crap out of that car you paid half price for! Keep the winners you like... sell the ones you don't like. sure beats buying any new car.
what is maybe happening right now... is that the enthusiasm for scarce 993s... is shifting to later cars... because the 993's run up makes the later cars look like bargains... dunno... just theorizing...
thoughts?
1- guys who wanted one when growing up (poster fanboys)
2-collectors who want one of everything before scarcity dries up the market
3-flippers/dealers
That and the rapid rise of the long hoods. 25 years after they were built... the early 911 craze seemed to catch and now everyone thinks that they know which porsches are gonna be next.
then it just went crazy. Now everyone sees that long hoods have quadrupled in value since 2002 and because of this... looks to any later decent cars instead... and buys them thinking that they will be next.
You think they are going to rise because they did in the past... so you buy one so you don't miss out... lo and behold... the market rises.
seems like the gap between when a car is built... and when it hits it's price nadir keeps dropping. Especially for really rare Halo cars... sometimes they never drop... they just appreciate!
I personally use a fifteen year rule... roughly.
6 years ago you needed to buy cool early to mid 90's cars at their nadir.... 993's, Mazda rx7 R1's... Mercedes E500's and Toyota supra turbo's. All these are really hard to find cheap now... and are either already worth double the money from 6 years ago... or will be shortly... and are still rising.
Today that same nadir is on BMW Z3M coupe clownshoes, 996 turbos and GT3's...early 2000's cars... I suspect low mileage Audi TT baseball stitch interior cabrios and early coupes too. all the pundits are already pumping all these cars... just wait... they will climb.
in five years the bottom will have hit on Audi R8 coupes , 997 turbos, mid 2000s cars.... the pundits will be on them.
You just wait till the bottom stops falling out from under interesting cars that have a fan base... and buy them when everyone is saying they are boring and dumb. lower production numbers are better than higher. usually this is when the cars are 15 years old.
at first you look like a dork... then later you feel like a genius! Meanwhile... drive the crap out of that car you paid half price for! Keep the winners you like... sell the ones you don't like. sure beats buying any new car.
what is maybe happening right now... is that the enthusiasm for scarce 993s... is shifting to later cars... because the 993's run up makes the later cars look like bargains... dunno... just theorizing...
thoughts?
02-19-2015, 02:21 PM
#58
Drifting
I doubt much of the 996 lineup will ever become sought after. People have come to terms with the water cooled engine but I'm not sure they'll ever warm up to the aesthetics. I could see 997 Turbo manual coupes being the next 993TT down the line, though, especially as manual transmissions go extinct.
03-01-2015, 11:57 AM
#59
I agree about the manual issue. Soon, in a bid to achieve mandated fuel economy numbers, they will become extinct....less control by a flawed driver the more predictable fuel economy outcomes. I think Porsche has decided to groom the consumer market for this inevitability, so they started (despite the ****storm) by offering their highest performance model (GT3) only in auto. Buying a sports car isn't a completely rational experience and despite the obvious "lap time" advantage, an automatic only (new car) market will turn off many and drive them to the older models. I believe 997 GT3's have increased in value lately probably partially in response to the "PDK only" offering from Porsche. Like everyone, I can't predict the future but it seems to me that there is a distinct possibility that the values of character cars offering more driver involvement may continue to increase in value....perhaps air cooled Porsches are the "canary in the coal mine". Cheers
03-02-2015, 10:23 AM
#60
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A late 1990's 993 TT is not quite old enough to be a collector car. I look at older Porsches or older Ferrari's, even older domestic collector cars and see that the highly desirable examples are always more than the price of a brand new model of the same series. With new 911 Turbo's over 200K, 993 TT's should top this number easily, and n fact low mileage examples already have. Unless prices of new 911 TT's drop I don't see older 993 TT's dropping, although prices go up and down, short term, on their way up, long term.