Skwerl

We all know the 993 market has been going a bit bonkers over the last year. I have to admit that this is much to my dismay, as I've made it a goal to save to buy a 993TT in the next 12-18 months or so. If the current trend continues unabated, though, I'm afraid they'll forever slip just outside my financial grasp, like trying to drive and touch the horizon.

That said, it's unlikely that prices could rise as they have been indefinitely. There has to be some ceiling on what the market will bear for a 20-year-old "mass" production car, even if it is as awesome as a 993.

I was just hoping to solicit some educated opinions/speculation from wizened Rennlisters about just where that final (relatively speaking) resting point might land. For me, personally, I'm not interested in sub-20,000 mile garage queens - my ideal TT would under 70k miles and in great shape. The sky may be the limit on those undriven collector examples (and I'm also less concerned about super rare sunroof delete options and whatnot), but what about the rest of 'em? The "regular" 993s? Are folks in 2015 really going to be willing to cough up over $100k for a 60k mile driver 993TT? Or more?

There has to be some price point, which I'd think we're nearing, where the market just starts saying "Nope.", right?

(Input on other 993 models would of course be interesting, too.)

(And FWIW, I'm mentally budgeting around $90k in the summer/fall of 2015, based on what I've seen lately mixed with some wishful thinking.)

asofine

This has been on my mind lately as I've been contemplating selling my C4S. I find it very difficult to speculate where the market is headed. On one hand, it seems hard to imagine the market getting hotter than it is today. OTOH, with each iteration of the 911, the air-cooled variants seem to become more and more appealing to many.

One thing to keep in mind is who is buying these cars and where. It seems that a lot of the crazy prices are shelled out from Western Europe to NA sellers. The relative strength USD/Euro could very well accelerate or decelerate that trend.

u7t2p7

It's not just the 993 market that has heated up. All the air cooled series have seen dramatic appreciation in the past 6-18 months. Unfortunately for you, all of the turbo series have seen prices rise faster than their NA brethren. The 76-79 turbos have doubled in price over the past 6 months; the 964 turbos have increased by 50% in the same time. As a result it is my opinion that 993's and specifically 993TT are undervalued relative to the rest of the market and should continue their strong price increases. That being said, with interest rates at near record lows, I recommend buying your 993TT now; they will never be less expensive to own IMHO.

redlightrich

I too pondered this. I almost pulled the trigger on a driver quality Turbo at 100k, then I took a step back. Yes it is a neat car, but man is it getting real close in price to some other very desirable new cars too.

I can't help think that 50th mania is adding to it, and I feel like it may level off. I was willing to jump off the side to watch. If they go up, so be it. If you need one today, then just buy and enjoy. Life is too short to wait for a deal for something you truly want. My desire to own one was not as strong as my desire to get a solid value. The fact that I have other cars helped me with my decision. They can go up more, but it can't keep this momentum forever.

If you want it, and can afford it somehow, buy today.

Good luck in whatever you do

Rich

smq42

People buying these cars are either investor/speculators or Porsche enthusiasts. The solid commitment of the latter group motivates the former group to buy air-cooled cars to store and flip for a profit.

Speaking as an enthusiast, my nostalgic desire to own an air-cooled Porsche to DRIVE is diminishing rapidly as the prices are going up.

You can get a lot of very nice brand-new cars, that are faster, for 50-100K. They won't be air-cooled 911s but how much is that worth to you? When enough enthusiasts get priced out, the speculators will sell to each other for a little while and then prices will crater.

Now, can I interest anyone in Tulips?

NoRush993/951

993's being valued the same as Aston Martin DB9's now. Put them side by side and you will know the answer.

Skwerl

As much as I'd like to think WB 993s are on a bubble and will come back down to their ~2011 levels if I'm patient, I just can't be that optimistic.

My instinct, though, is that, while they've certainly shot up, they won't be able to maintain their current pace for much longer. There has to (I hope) be a point where the market has just had enough and doesn't see the point in running values up anymore. To illustrate, there's no way a standard TT will be a $250k car in the foreseeable future. It just isn't worth that. My question is getting at, what is the dollar amount, between today's market and that $250k, where it runs out of steam and settles? Nobody can predict the future, of course, but some might have insight by virtue of knowing the people who are currently driving up prices, and may have some input as to where those individuals would tap out.

I know I've already missed the boat on finding TTs all day for under $70k, but my hope is that in the near future, things will level off and I can get rid of this sinking feeling in my stomach that by the time I've saved up the huge down payment I want to have, cost of entry will be something insane and out of reach.

goofballdeluxe

^^^ They said the same thing about 356 Speedsters when they were selling for $75K.

Now those same $75K cars from a decade ago sell for $250K.

Supply and demand, pure and simple.

Skwerl

You guys aren't helping my growing sense of panic.

smq42

I hate to say this, and I know it may come across like a d-bag, but, if you have to save up for a down payment on a 20+ year old car, you're already priced out.

Speaking personally, I love driving these cars. But, not enough that I'm going into debt for a 20 year old car. So, I'm very close to saying that I've missed the boat a few years ago and looking to move on.

But hey, to each his own; the heart wants what it wants; you gotta follow your passion, etc!

Skwerl

I don't think a $100k 20-year-old dream car is the same as some 1995 Camry. (The down payment I was shooting for was around 50%, btw.)

Anyway, I'm not looking for financial advice. I'll be okay on whatever I end up doing.

Knight

I would not wait until 2015, I'm sure the prices will not be lower than today unless there is a major economical crisis.

Imagine if the Asia market caught on like say the Europeans, such as all of a sudden China wanted air cooled 911s cause it's a hot fad. Bingo you'd say a major spike in price. Like previously stated supply vs demand.

Factor in with the 991's, we are moving into a whole new technology change that is making people attracted to the opposite of new = more mechanical and analogue driving experience. Guys like Magnus are also aiding the growth IMO. If you look he's really into 930s now, as stated above these have all of a sudden doubled in value.

Anyways you should consider this TT, it's in Cdn $ which is a nice plus for you after the exchange.

http://www.timmismotor.com/sportscars.php?viewcar=579

There is a RL local to it that can even offer a rennfax. If clean I'd act quickly!

RichPugh

I'm Pro-Financing for 20 year old 911's, LOL

I had a plan to own a 911 before I was 40 years old. My buddy Ed already bought one (A 1990 C2 964 in impeccable condition with 45k miles for $17k, 3 years ago... easily worth 2x that today) and I've wanted one since before I could drive... so last year, I made it my short term goal (I was 38 then) to buy a 911 before I turned 40. I sold 3 motorcycles, random pieces of collectable artwork, collectable shoes, skateboards, records... anything I could think of to sell in favor of receiving a 911 in exchange. That and waiting on my tax refund I raised a LOT of money... enough to buy a Nice SC outright, almost enough to buy a descent 964 in a less-than-desireable color exterior/interior combo and quite a bit shy of the 993TT cars that I REALLY wanted. I was never so much into the C2S/C4S for any other reason than they LOOKED like a turbo (sans wing)... but for the price premium, it didnt seem justifiable.

So I thought "Rich, youre 38 and this is something youre going to regret if you dont just ****!ng buy a 993! Youre not going to buy an SC and do a bunch of stuff to it and be happy. Youre always going to want that 993". So, knowing I wanted to mod the car, I resorted to the idea of financing a portion of it. I also knew enough to expect the value of air cooled 911's might fluctuate but werent going to drop much from where they were currently priced. So, from an investment standpoint, I treated the price point on a 993 like a home (excluding the homes between 2005 and 2010, lol). "Buy what you can afford... it's a CAR... but, it'll probably still be worth what you pay for it even if someday you realize you cant afford it any more" However, it was a car I wanted and could afford to finance so I ultimately treated it like any other car. I began the search for financing before I found a car I liked... Hahah.

I started doing research on NB cars and really sorta fell in love with the NB coupes. They were cheaper, more abundant and every bit as powerful as the S's... and I ruled the TT out simply due to realistic funds (I think I came by 2 TT's under 60k and I was reluctant to finance so much). I also realized I was going to spend $15k in mod'ing ANY car I bought, so the financing option left me with a lot more cash to drop on cool stuff.

I ended up financing the car I own currently with the lender that the dealership (from who I purchased it) offered in-house financing thru... not ideal but I HAD to have it, LOL. Iris Blue, Coupe, 6-speed, bone stock, never mod'ed, 1 owner, full leather package, hard back Sport Seats, good PPI, drove wonderfully... but the car had like 100,370 miles on it and my Credit Union failed to mention they only offer 2 year terms on vehicles with over 100k miles... ughh. It wasnt the cheapest 993 I found but it was a VERY realistic price for the condition it was in and with the options it had, I had to have it.

I maintained, repaired and mod'ed it with the cash I saved and would have been going nuts if I was racking up the CC bills on those mods. I cant leave well enough alone. I couldn't have done it unless I financed it (I'd rather finance the entire car at an average used car interest rate than finance the $15k in mods I've made on 10-12% credit cards, LOL.) Now, when I have an extra little bit of cash, I send it to the car note.

SO... Finance Away! Get your dream car! You'll regret NOT doing it sooner every day you wait! Don't buy, or not buy, a car that you WANT based on its speculative future value or from any investment standpoint unless you're buying simply to hide it away for 20 more years. Buy a 993 because you can afford it, you're willing to deal with any maintenance and you've always wanted one... and because you want to enjoy it.

As far as my contribution to this thread... We have yet to see what the market will say "Nope" to. We do know what the Rennlisters will say Nope to, LOL. But the market is FAR beyond this forum. We're all biased, entitled and self appointed experts. We're happy telling someone they "paid too much" or "should have gotten a coupe" because we all believe we're the authority.

The market tells me:
1. Coupes are more desirable and less abundant for sale, probably because they sell so much faster.

2. Cabs and Tips are on the market a lot longer and are fetching lower prices because they are less desirable and more abundant for sale.

3. S models are generally more sought after because they have the TT widebody features and are generally considered to be of a higher "model", (i.e., Buying an S-Line Audi A4 over the standard A4 when it's still far from an actual S4) but the price premium seems to be legit. People are simply willing to pay MORE for an S. Sure the C4S is literally a TT sans wing and engine but it's just not a TT

4. Turbo's, including Turbo S's will always be the top tier (forget RS, CS, GT models, etc... that's a whole other group of car)

5. Most people will buy a 993 that they WANT over one they can AFFORD. Personally, I took more into consideration than simply owning a 993. Mod'ing mine was a part of the plan. A lot of owners do mods as an after though or new-found hobby. I knew what I wanted to do with a 993 years before I owned one, LOL.

6. There aint gonna be a drop in price any time soon. The people who are buying the modest ones are almost rushing to buy one before it stretches past their budgets, and the people buying the high dollar ones have enough money to buy any car they want, but theyre all buying 993's... so the demand goes far beyond the supply, across the board. Perhaps Magnus Walker will start collecting them or someone else will make some documentary style films about the 993. It seems to coincide with recent price jumps, LOL.

You don't buy a 993 (or an air cooled 911 in general) because you have the money to buy a sports car. There are MANY vehicles that out-perform the 993 for far less money (see 996 and 997). You buy it because you want a Porsche 993... PERIOD.

mpruden

Bare with me here... this is how I justified my purchase after watching these cars creep up in value. Whatever helps you sleep at night, right?

1) In 2013, most new car buyers purchased a Ford F-series truck than any other vehicle. It MSRPs for $24-54k, Let's just say $35k for the average sale price.

2) Even today, you can get one heck of a nice NA 993 for $35k.

3) Lets say that the F150 loses 20% of its value in yr 1... $7k

4) Keeping it apples to apples, that means you have $7k in "free" mods/improvements to your 993. Again, opportunity cost is also $7k in depreciation had you bought the most popular vehicle in America last year.

5) What would you rather have in your garage right now? The status quo, a very nice, practical, useful 3rd vehicle that can haul lumber 4 times a year like the 2013 F150... or a modern classic like the 993 with $7k of fresh mods?

Same money out of pocket, same fuel economy, and neither one of them has back seats that adults would choose to ride in. ;-). It's a no brainer. Prices aren't that crazy for NA cars...yet.

Quadcammer

really really disagree with the concept of financing such a vehicle (unless you have the cash and the interest rate is so low that you can earn a higher return through investments).

as for the max price...who cares.