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The Future value of air cooled 911s?

 
Old 05-25-2019, 09:29 AM
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Railmaster.
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Default The Future value of air cooled 911s?

Hi all!

In a distant future say 20-30 years petrol will be phased out in favour of more enviromental friendly fuels.

Before the last gallon of petrol is sold, there will be an increasing amount of restrictions for older petrol / diesel cars in towns, wd see that already in Europe!

I guess that we will se falling prices on air cooled 911s (and most other classic cars) within 10-15 years because of this!

What do you think about the usability and values of air cooled 911s in the future?

Enjoy them now is my advice!
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Old 05-25-2019, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Railmaster. View Post
Hi all!

In a distant future say 20-30 years petrol will be phased out in favour of more enviromental friendly fuels.

Before the last gallon of petrol is sold, there will be an increasing amount of restrictions for older petrol / diesel cars in towns, wd see that already in Europe!

I guess that we will se falling prices on air cooled 911s (and most other classic cars) within 10-15 years because of this!

What do you think about the usability and values of air cooled 911s in the future?

Enjoy them now is my advice!
I have a hard time believing gas being phased out in the United States in 20-30 years. Too many existing ICE vehicles and this country is too big and doesn’t remotely have the infrastructure to support pure EV. Certain states may become very restrictive with regard to emissions: read California. Other states, mostly the southern states, don’t test emissions.

The primary issue I’m concerned about will be a lack of support/source for parts. An OEM rebuilt steering rack is ~$5000 right now. In 20 years....
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:30 AM
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ed devinney
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In 20 years, the newest air-cooled 911 will be 40 years old. Even if we haven't moved to an autonomous, electric fleet, very few people will be daily-driving these cars, so parts supply may actually be less of an issue than it is now. There will always be specialists and hoarders, and new manufacturing techniques might actually make some parts more common even in very short runs. I agree with rk-d, too, on the unlikely complete demise of gasoline in the next 20-30 years, but it might be replaced by something like butanol which can be made from biological sources.

So, likely that the cars will still run and probably could be driven on the street on nice days, like most of them are now. I suspect the strongest driver of prices will be the same force that has driven collectible prices in cycles over the last decades: the aging of the group of people who wanted them in their youth. Now we're in a golden period, where youthful lust is fed by late-career money, but the curve will at least flatten as time goes by. When today's 15-year-olds are 45, will they be buying every 911 being sold by the estates of today's 50 year olds, with the same fervor those 50 year olds had when they scored their cars?
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:55 AM
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They could stop selling new ICE powered cars today. It would still take at least 20 years for a lot of the cars to be retired, average age of a used car is around 8 years. Up until last year I had never bought a new car. I kept my old Passat 10 yrs.

When most people cannot ever remember even seeing a 993 on the road, that is when I would worry about future value.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:57 AM
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just drive have fun don't worry
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Old 05-25-2019, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Railmaster. View Post
Hi all!

In a distant future say 20-30 years petrol will be phased out in favor of more environmentally friendly fuels.
Environmentally friendly hum.... would that be electric cars powered by coal-fired power plants in most of the world and natural gas-fired plants here in the US?
Where transmission and conversion losses reduce the available BTU power to the wheels by 60% from the generation point. The idea that alternate sources are somehow more efficient or a lower pollution option is a lie.
Think about it a liquid packed with BTUs that is easy and safe to transport and use, if it didn't exist and someone came up with it today it would be considered a great invention.
The forced conversion away from gasoline is all about political power, control and who has it.
Power plants have service lives that approach 100 years so the idea that we will build non-fossil fuel power plants to replace the coal-fired plants globally in the next 20-30 years is far fetched.
I think it is more likely that the hidden political debate will come to the surface of citizens consciousness in the next 20-30 years via the impact of not using fossil fuels on their pocketbooks.
Has anyone here looked at their electric bill lately, Connecticut Edison is called Con-Ed, for a reason.
I say gasoline, with too much alcohol in it will be around for a very very long time and aftermarket fuel system update options for older vehicles will appear.
Andy

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Old 05-25-2019, 01:11 PM
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I agree oil will be around long after I am return to Mother Earth to feed the trees. Self driving cars will be the first cost prohibitive threat to the classic car hobby. When the self-drive technology is perfected to an acceptable error rate, those that want to operate their own vehicle will see insurance premiums go up significantly. The insurance actuary will model in the human effect as a whole on top of age, driving history, geographic location, etc.
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Old 05-25-2019, 01:50 PM
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If you look at the historic and proven data on the subject of the environment regarding climate change and the rate that is exponentially progressing, severe changes are coming in 20-30 years. In fact, some of them are already happening now.

CBS News reran an article the other day that says if current ocean harvesting of salt-water fish continues at our present rate, there will be no fish left by 2050. Couple that with many water tables being poisoned by fracking, and CO2 emission just passed 415ppm for the first time ever in our history, something tells me that since we're still doing nothing meaningful to stop any of this, the value of any air-cooled car will be the very least of our problems. If you live in Florida, your 911, along with the rest of the entire state, will be completely gone and underwater by 2100 with current glacier melt.

Have you kids and grandkids watch Mad Max type dystopian movies. Think of them as training manuals for pretty bleak future. Shame that humans can't eat or breath money, most of what all this destruction is all about.

Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted. Just glad I'm over 50

Here's the CBS News article: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/salt-wa...-seen-by-2048/
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Old 05-25-2019, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by goofballdeluxe View Post
Shame that humans can't eat or breath money, most of what all this destruction is all about.
On the other hand, recent events have proven there's good money being made convincing folks of the narrative that the sky is falling while proposing things that do not really address environmental issues but enrich a chosen few.
Andy :-)

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Old 05-25-2019, 02:30 PM
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The challenge of predicting the next 20-30 years will be the unknowns. Looking forward in time with the current landscape does not account for upcoming disruptive changes. Look back just 10 years and see how you would have been unable to predict the current state. Automation, global warming and global conflicts will be the biggest variables that are tough to predict impact of.

Bottom Line.....The "value" of a 911 in the future is largely unpredictable. Consider it a zero value asset and enjoy it while you can. Being fortunate enough to have the health, wealth and environment to enjoy it is pretty remarkable in my opinion. I do lie to myself and say it's just another asset class but the reality may end up otherwise.
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Old 05-25-2019, 02:37 PM
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We are all moving to Mars anyway
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Old 05-25-2019, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by ed devinney View Post
In 20 years, the newest air-cooled 911 will be 40 years old. Even if we haven't moved to an autonomous, electric fleet, very few people will be daily-driving these cars, so parts supply may actually be less of an issue than it is now. There will always be specialists and hoarders, and new manufacturing techniques might actually make some parts more common even in very short runs. I agree with rk-d, too, on the unlikely complete demise of gasoline in the next 20-30 years, but it might be replaced by something like butanol which can be made from biological sources.

So, likely that the cars will still run and probably could be driven on the street on nice days, like most of them are now. I suspect the strongest driver of prices will be the same force that has driven collectible prices in cycles over the last decades: the aging of the group of people who wanted them in their youth. Now we're in a golden period, where youthful lust is fed by late-career money, but the curve will at least flatten as time goes by. When today's 15-year-olds are 45, will they be buying every 911 being sold by the estates of today's 50 year olds, with the same fervor those 50 year olds had when they scored their cars?
That is mostly true with some exceptions. There is not much interest in a ‘57 Chevy or a ‘62 Chevy these days. There used to be. You can’t give away Model Ts.

However certain cars remain collectable and even rise in value. Any Ferrari from that period. Also, look at the values of a ‘57 Porsche Speedster or a ‘62 Porsche Roadster. A plain-Jane Porsche 3.2 Carrera or 993, though to say.
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Old 05-25-2019, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by KNS View Post
That is mostly true with some exceptions. There is not much interest in a ‘57 Chevy or a ‘62 Chevy these days. There used to be. You can’t give away Model Ts.

However certain cars remain collectable and even rise in value. Any Ferrari from that period. Also, look at the values of a ‘57 Porsche Speedster or a ‘62 Porsche Roadster. A plain-Jane Porsche 3.2 Carrera or 993, though to say.
Longhoods are more popular than ever and those are 50 years old. 911s are different. As long as Porsche keeps making the 911 and as long as people keep liking them, the older models should continue to retain some value.

That said, I could not care less about collectibility. Saran wrapped low mileage cars are boring.
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Old 05-25-2019, 05:31 PM
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If you think back 120 years or so, mass transit was the horse. Then the car came along and the value of a horse didn't collapse, far from it. Now there's special horse facilities with vets and trails and places to exercise and maintain them. Why wouldn't the same be true for an iconic ICE like a 993. I'd spend a chunk of my retirement funds on such an activity.
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Old 05-25-2019, 07:03 PM
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ed devinney
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Originally Posted by KNS View Post
That is mostly true with some exceptions. There is not much interest in a ‘57 Chevy or a ‘62 Chevy these days. There used to be. You can’t give away Model Ts.

However certain cars remain collectable and even rise in value. Any Ferrari from that period. Also, look at the values of a ‘57 Porsche Speedster or a ‘62 Porsche Roadster. A plain-Jane Porsche 3.2 Carrera or 993, though to say.
Exactly my point - standouts made in small(ish) quantities will stand out for a long time. Mass-produced cars including the regular 911 series, as nice as they are and as much as we like them, probably won't follow the same curve. Hopefully better than the model Ts, but in 30 years my wife or kids won't be fighting off hordes of cash-throwing buyers when they put my 993 on the block.

As interesting as the dynamics of the collector market are, I agree with others in this thread - drive and enjoy what you have, while you have it. Life is short and unpredictable.
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