urbanscribe

The average US car is used on average 3.6% of the time. You can deliver 4 times the seat-miles even In Wyoming with one quarter the cars.

Of course that's in 30 years when it's all played out. In our life times we will see on/off autonomous to get onto 95 or urban centers.

We're safe for a while but let's not fool ourselves that most who spend the US average 9000$ a year on personal cars won't be running to replace their already bland transportation for on demand TaaS.

We live in a (great) cocoon but we share the infrastructure with much bigger forces at play.

Let's enjoy those cars while we can which is likely a while.

urbanscribe

Stout.

Reminds me how fuel cells have been, remain and will be for a long time the automobile technology of the future...

Noah Fect

The thing is, though, with Uber, you frequently need to twiddle your thumbs for only about two or three minutes. Thumb-twiddling went out with the taxi cartels.

And that's before the concept really becomes ubiquitous in society.

My guess is that within 15 years, maybe 20 at the outside, owning a car will be comparable to owning a horse. Privately-owned cars will not vanish entirely, but they will be reserved to those who are passionate about them and have a place to exercise them and the means to look after them. And if you drive one into a major metro area, you're going to encounter strange looks at best and legal problems at worst.

Papa Fittig

I sure hope you are right and your timeline skepticism will prove correct. Just living close to Google/Goodle X and seeing tens of self-driving cars everyday makes me aware of the progress technology made.
Here is ex Google self-driving tech division car.

I saw literally hundreds of them on public roads.

Take a look inside:

and this Google division is now a Waymo company. Here is from them:
"4 million miles self driven. We drive 25,000 autonomous miles each week...We continue to drive every day on public roads. Now, we’re inviting residents in Phoenix, AZ to join the first public trial of our self-driving cars"
It is happening Pete, it really is. And it isn't a bad thing. It is just a transforming technology and better be aware and act accordingly. This is perhaps the biggest change since a horse to car transition.

Dewinator

Noah Fect

If anything, it'll be the other way around. Ask any hotel guy what he thinks about AirBnB.

As pointed out elsewhere in the thread, most privately-owned cars are parked someplace doing nothing 95+% of the time. Those who own their own self-driving cars will be incentivized to rent them out on demand via an app. You have to admit, it'll be nice when cars turn into an asset instead of a liability.

This is probably why Uber has a higher market cap than GM, Ford, and most of the S&P 500...

K-A

Interestingly, almost 2 years ago, I participated in a Porsche research event (conducted by Porsche). Got to see tons of concepts, ideas, and even the production version of the Mission E (no real cars though, all renders). I'm not "supposed" to say what I saw, but I'm sure it's not revealing a lot when I say it had a HUGE prevalence on EV's (likely the whole thing was to see how warmed up we'd be to the EV concepts). I'll just say that now that it's been put out there, mixed with what I saw..... the 718's being phased out make sense (with a replacement). I've always thought that turbos in their modern implementation (think: since they actually started being used to better MPG) are a bridge between N/A and EV's (still combustion, but strive to provide power like EV's, especially with rapid shifting DCT's moving so efficiently, you'd think it was an EV). And 4 cylinders to me are more pointless now than ever, as they don't provide that soul/sound and character some of us cherish from ICE cars. The 4 cylinder turbo like the one in the 718 feels so much like an EV in its torquey and effortless acceleration (despite some turbo lag), yet it loses the auditory quality (arguably the only thing about an ICE car now, or soon, that reigns supreme over where EV's are or will very soon be). So, what's the point? To me, if it's between a 4 cylinder, I'd rather go EV. I'm frustrated enough with the purported homogenizing the GT3 to another turbo; I'm at the point where if it's between a flat six turbo, or EV, I'd just throw my hands up and accept automotive soulless oblivion and go EV. But that's just me. And who knows if I like the 992 and change, or more likely compromise my tune. Right now I just don't like the direction. I simply and personally prefer ICE cars to feel like ICE cars (flaws, loudness, lack of relative torque, and all). But this "ICE to feel like EV" movement, to me, just drives home how we're in this last bastion of ICE that's trying to be what will inevitably replace, and easily outperform it. I guess best way to put it is that it's about "charm" over logistics.



My bad, I just typed the next number without thinking. I meant whatever the successor would be.

Agreed. I'm too emotion driven when it comes to cars. I simply don't want a Porsche EV. I look at the Porsche design, tach, I need a screaming motor to feel the experience that makes it worth why I'm spending money on it. The Mission E looks awesome, but I just don't feel myself excited about it.

PantsFire

The GT3RS is an exaggerated 911, I like it but it's not subtle in any way so I'm not sure about the 992 at all, hopefully the mule is just that and the finished product is more refined, more balanced.

Highway2Hell

I keep looking at this post every day. I'm hoping to see more refined photos starting to coming out. I'll quote what I said in another post: "Just not sold on the looks of the 992 at the moment. The 992 looks more like a female body builder on steroids. Big arms and legs with lots of chiseled edges instead of those smooth feminine lines!"

It looks like it moves pretty good on the track on some of those YouTube videos.
Interior might be the biggest change. But..., at least there are no "fried egg" headlights.

911-TOUR

Maybe in certain places. But where I live - inside of Houston proper (not a suburb) - Uber is *at best* an 8-10 min wait, and usually more like 15. Here, in my locale, there isn't enough demand to keep drivers circling looking for fares (especially on a Sat/Sun). They all head for the airport or park-n-ride drop offs. Maybe I'm a chowderhead, but about the only thing on-demand services work for in my experience is replacing taxi cartels (more cheaply).

cheers!

RRDnA

The best selling vehicles in the US are, its a rhetorical question..................has anyone asked the guys and gals that drive them what sort of future they want?

The move to EVs and driverless cars will be generational for many reasons including technical, infrastructure related not to mention household budgets and income.

For many the move to government mandated/controlled driverless cars will represent a huge loss of freedom, freedom to travel, freedom of association etc.

The willingness of people to share their personal information, willingly and of often unknowingly in the age of the internet is breathtaking.

Non of this has anything to do with the 992 or Mission E - Porsche will move with the market and if the market demands EVs Porsche will make them. They will be some of the best performing, best handling vehicles in the world, they will demonstrate the abilities through motorsport e.g Formula E.

Will I buy one, probably not but another generation will.

chuck911

Porsche has not "moved with the market". The market emphatically does NOT want turbo's. When has anyone ever seen any automotive reviewer extolling the virtues of turbocharging? Where were all the people clamoring for smaller turbo'd Porsches"? Nowhere. Only with the Turbo and GT2RS does the turbo get any respect, which even then its not really the turbo but the POWER of these cars- including the powerful brakes and handling. No. Porsche is emphatically NOT following the market. Porsche is following the REGULATORS of the markets. In fact, technically, they are not even following the regulators- they are OBEYING and COMPLYING with regulations. Completely different thing. It is not because of markets that there is hardly even a few kilo's weight difference between an S, a GT3 and a GT3RS. There is hardly any difference because every car made must comply with so many safety regulations there is hardly any room for variance. The original 911R was hundreds of pounds lighter than the 911S. The new 911R is, what? 8 pounds?

Huge loss of freedom? That is hardly news.

The real news will be when people wake up and start realizing it. I am not all that encouraged.

Papa Fittig

I am with you Chuck. However, to be honest Porsche just wants to play in NA market, which is [over]regulated. They have to comply and do not have much choice.
So when people wake up they better focus on the root cause of freedom loss. It is sad to see how my and your taxes create these regulations and if not kill all the innovation, sure push it in direction of innovating within or around those regulations. I am not very encouraged either.

K-A

Dewinator