chucknorrisjr

Thanks again! So I Just spoke to a dealer in NY. He said it'll be around $1k to $1500 to ship to Florida, so yup, much more than $600 like you said. The car is listed on Autotrader, and the AutoCheck report in the listing lists 1 accident (right side impact). (The link to the listing is below). The salesman said they don't use AutoCheck, only CarFax and the CarFax report is clean. He also said he's looked at the car and is positive there isn't any paintwork on the car. He said he'll send a pic with the paintmeter as well as call AutoCheck to inquire and get back to me. Have you ever heard of this where AutoCheck shows an accident and CarFax doesn't? Is this a major red flag? Should I automatically avoid cars with any accident history even with CPO?

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...talRetail=true

evilfij

seis-speed

good2go

What sports car do you own that is appreciating?

Investments you don't drive.

It like saying I have this bottle of wine that is appreciating, You open it to enjoy a glass. The bottle of wine is worthless.

jsaviano

A wise friend once said, "When it comes to expensive cars, buy used, lease new." Good advice. A slightly used CPO Porsche is a great value. All cars will depreciate, unless you buy extremely expensive classics. Some will sort of bottom out. For example, a few years ago you could buy a Ferrari 550 for $100-125k. Now they're $150-175k, maybe more. Get what you want and drive it. That's all that matters.

HelpMeHelpU

Any car with an accident on Carfax or Autocheck or whatever shouldn't disqualify it on its face. You'll want to understand the accident and repair, preferably with lots of photos and detailed copy of the actual repair work done. And keep in mind that you'll need to explain the last owner's accident, should you ever wish to sell the car. But like Evilfij says, look to get around ten percent off. (There are scads of threads dealing with diminished value; search is your friend.)

Remember also to take with a grain of salt--if not the whole salt shaker--anything a sales person tells you, unless they're willing to put it in writing as a representation in a purchase agreement, which is HIGHLY unlikely.

chucknorrisjr

Ok, I think I'm in the home stretch. HelpMeHelpU, I tried to make a pricing model keeping in mind your advice and the depreciation data for Cayman 718s I could find through googling. If you (or anyone else reading this thread) have a second, do you mind checking out my spreadsheet here to let me know if the offer prices I calculated seem reasonable? My model takes MSRP, then assuming 2019 is the current model year, applies a 1 yr residual of 81% (assuming 10,000 miles driven) for 2018 and a 2 yr residual of 69% (assuming 20,000 miles driven) for 2017. I then adjust at 22cents per mile, for the variance of actual miles on the car vs the model assumptions of 10k mile driven for 2018 and 20k miles driven for 2017, adding or subtracting to estimated value, and then subtract an additional $3k for negotiation room to arrive at my offer price for each car. Do these assumptions make sense and do my offers seem reasonable? Just wanted to check with you guys as I'm ready to start submitting these offers by email to the dealers that I've already contacted for all of these cars. Thanks!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

HelpMeHelpU

BTW, my comment about getting below 80% of MSRP, I forgot to mention it should be for really low-mileage cars, say below 4k. Otherwise hit the price by a higher depreciation per mile than 20-something cents. Try MSRP/100k per mile.

Unless the dealers have been sitting on these cars, I doubt you'll see as much room in the bid-sale prices you're expecting.

You can always give it a try. Also, I suggest calling each of these dealers and connecting with the pre-owned mgr and telling them you're very serious about buying a Cayman S soon. And then present your offer on the phone instead of email. Just my two cents.

chucknorrisjr

Thank you. I've submitted a few of these offers already and yeah, they're not moving much from their asks. I will try your idea of calling them and asking for the preowned manager.

Just to confirm that I understand you about the 80% rule, are you applying that to a low mileage car regardless of whether it's 2017 or 2018? So if it's a 2017 CPO Cayman with 4,000 miles and an $80,000 MSRP, the 80% rule would value it at $64k, just the same as a 2018 CPO Cayman with 4,000 miles and an $80,000 MSRP?

With regard to higher mileage cars, say it's a 2017 CPO Cayman with 8,000 miles and an MSRP of $80k. The 80% rule plus MSRP/100k per mile rule would value that at 80,000 x 80% - (8,000 miles - 4,000 miles) * 80 cents/mile = $64k - $3,200 = $60,800?

HelpMeHelpU

My 80% rule is really a guideline, so don't try to apply an imperfect guidepost to an even more imperfect marketplace. I don't expect dealers to jump at those prices. If you want the best deal, I suggest having patience and watching for them and once cars get into that range, don't waste time thinking about it, just contact the dealer, verify some facts and make an offer.

Of course if you want to move more quickly, that's fine, but just don't expect the very best deal. Just get the best you can and start driving the car.

saeyedoc

I think you're overthinking the whole thing. Do you really want to lose a car with a build you like because it's not enough of a deal? At some point you just have to make a move when you find what you want. There's not that many out there, it's not like trying to find a used BMW 3 series.

chucknorrisjr

I hear you guys. At this point, I've done more than enough research and have gotten close enough to understanding the pricing that yes, any more fretting over the pricing will be overthinking it, I agree. I'll just keep submitting bids and negotiating, and see what sticks. I don't mind losing a build I like as my taste isn't that specific. Another one I like seems to appear online every few days. All I care about is color, auto transmission, and nice wheels, all the options are irrelevant to me. If it takes a few weeks to get a price in the ballpark of helpmehelpu's 80% guideline, that's fine. Ok, thanks everyone!

Peter80

Fascinating that no-one has mentioned the debate on the demise of the natural six on the 718. I had a 2006 987 boxster, then a 2014 981 before a 2017 718, which was better in every respect except that soundtrack. Sure, at first I thought it was OK, particular when you first crank it up, but over time that subaru/beetle racket and vibration, particularly when accelerating in mid-range, grated on me. Don't get me wrong, it's not horrible, just that I missed that very special Porsche sound, which a lot of 718 owners won't have experienced so won't miss. I changed for a 2017 991.2 cab s which is in a different league, sounds and looks gorgeous even with the little turbos, but I have to say it is more of a grand tourer and marginally less fun than the boxster. If I had my time again, I'd equally have considered a mega-specced, late as possible low mileage 2016 981, despite the 718 looking nicer, handling better and having more power and particularly torque.

Incidentally, I lost 20% in 15 months trading the 2017 718. The 991 had lost slightly less but given the dealer's mark up, they're probably about the same in depreciation, at least in the UK.

chucknorrisjr

You lost 20% off MSRP or 20% off what you paid (which I assume was less than MSRP)? If the latter, what was your initial discount to MSRP buying new?

Peter80

The 718 Boxster S new with spec was close £64,500 MSRP less £1500 discount in March 2017 so £63K actual. No Porsche dealers in UK give much discount. I traded for £49K in June 18 so close 22% lost. The same car on the configurator now lists at £67K so, damn, nearly 27% less than current MSRP in 15 months. But of course dealer mark up distorts. They put my 718 up for £55K (sold straight away!) so realistically say £53,500. If you use that figure instead of price paid to me, it's more like 15% less than I paid and 20% less than current MSRP.

The 911 Cab S was £93K Configures now at £114K so only 18% depreciation (probably 14% off actual purchase price). Difficult to know really given dealer margins very high. Bottom line is I don't think the depreciation factor is much different when considering between a 718 and 911 purchase although I strongly suspect the 911 holds slightly better. However, the dealer margin means the depreciation on whatever you sell will be a helluva lot more than on what you buy!

Not sure how but I worked out that the actual cash I paid to upgrade to the same age 911 was about the same or very slightly more than if I'd bought a new 911 in the first place. But of course I didn't have the benefit of the more expensive 911 from new.