Originally Posted by Alan Smithee

Your thoughts on Piech's claim as to how he was
first informed of the 'issue' in Feb 2015, and Primor's
denial of it?

Originally Posted by mcsmcs1

Eduardo, let's avoid the personal attacks
if you don't mind. I simply disagree with
your contention that this was some adroit
strategy by Piech to escape the personal
impact of the then future diesel scandal
both on his reputation and finances. In
fact, you put it in rather authoritative
terms yesterday:


The writers of this article have no clue
to the real story behind Piëch & the fallout.
This was the most profitable & greatest
'escape' trick ever pulled off in German
corporate history. In April 2015, Piëch
created a 'Crisis in Confidence' re: CEO
Winterkorn out of thin air, well before VW
admitted to the 'defeat device' to the US
authorities. He was then Chairman of the
Supervisory Board that overlooks the
Executive Board that actually runs the
VW Group. Piëch engineered his dramatic
exit on the condition that he would be
allowed to sell all of his shares (of both
Porsche SE & VW Group) at historical highs,
especially when you considered what
happened to the stock after September
of 2015.

The reality is that there is very little truth
in what you wrote, and you can't provide
any evidence to support this Machiavellian
fantasy you've conjured up. For whatever
reason, you find it necessary to attribute
to Piech some grand design rather than
accept he exited VW Group ignominiously
and with a massive financial loss, just like
the rest of the family shareholders. It was
not a glorious nor fitting end to a legendary
career, and I very much doubt this was the
denouement he would have written for himself.

It has been 2 years and where is his dramatic
return from the ashes? He is now 80, and now
has almost no financial interest in Porsche SE
left and no power nor influence at VW. Had
he not resigned, he would have been voted
out of the Chairman role, and there is no
evidence that any condition that he be allowed
to sell his stake before exiting was granted,
quite the contrary actually. For the moment,
he remains on the Porsche SE board, but
with the sale of his stake last month to Hans
Michel Piech and a couple others, he will be
removed from there as well following
regulatory approval of the transfer of the
ordinary units. If you are waiting for his
return to power, you will be sorely disappointed.

You reference a financial caper, yet he sold
his interest in Porsche SE just last month,
at a price roughly one-half the value it had
when he was forced from the Chairman
position at VW 2 years prior. That translates
into a Billion Dollar loss in value, hardly the
thing of legends. That leaves the matter of
his direct VW stake which you assume to be
significant due to his long tenure at the company.
There will be more on this to follow, but let me
say now that the remuneration structure in
German companies is different than the
incentive structure we are accustomed to
in the US. There is not the emphasis on
aligning the executives' interests with the
shareholders via large option grants or
restricted stock awards. Compensation
is far more salary based with certain
bonuses for performance. That is not
to say, he had no direct stake but I
suspect it paled in comparison to the
indirect stake held via Porsche SE.

Consistent with this thinking is the
fact that I can find no reference in
any article published in the last 2
years with regard to the disposition
of his direct VW stake. In fact, if
we look at the May 2015 article
you referenced numerous times
by Der Spiegel they interpret
his threat to sell his shares to mean
his shares in Porsche SE.


"Indeed, his threat to sell his shares
is already creating turbulence. But
his shares are worth less than many
speculate. Piëch currently holds 13
percent of the common shares in
Porsche Automobile Holding. The
mass-circulation daily Bild recently
estimated he could raise €21 billion
by selling them, but the real figure
is only about €1.8 billion. That
relatively low price may not keep
Piëch from selling. He's more likely
to be bothered by having to first
offer his shares to the rest of the
family -- to whom he would reportedly
be required to sell them at a 25 percent
discount compared to market prices.
That would require him to not hold
a grudge, which, of course, is something
he's not very good at."


I think you may have misinterpreted
the nature of his threat back when
he was facing removal as Chairman.
I believe that the threat was directed
squarely at Wolfgang Porsche, and
that the true threat was that his
shares in Porsche SE would go to
an outside investor, thereby reducing
the family's control over VW Group.
Supporting this thinking are quite
a few articles written in March of
2017, when it was not yet known
that the Piech family would fund
the purchase of the transferred
shares and keep them out of the
hands of outside industrial investors.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-vo...-idUSKBN16O1TV

That leaves the matter of his directly
held VW shares which are curiously
absent in any media reports. I will
go through the VW group annual
reports for 2014, 2015 and 2016
and then we will have a clear picture
as to the value of this direct position
and the date of any disposition by Piech.
To be continued...