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Old 03-02-2017, 02:43 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Archimedes View Post
But this bubble has absolutely nothing to do with any of that and everything to do with Central Banks injecting capital in the system and keeping interest rates artificially low. There is little to nothing in the way of fundamentals driving this asset bubble. It's solely a function of cheap money. There's a huge global game of musical chairs going on and the only question is when is the music going to stop and how abrupt will it be.
GT Cars haven't gone up in price, our currency has simply been devalued and sellers need more of the near worthless green pieces of paper & computer screen digits to trade for them.

Greece was supposed to bring down the Euro, Brexit was going to cause systemic havoc, Deutsche Bank was going to collapse, Trump was never going to get elected and the smart analysts proclaimed "Sell the inauguration!"

I'm with you, I think it will collapse, but not for a long time, as in 35-50 years for the "Big Reset." Companies used cheap money to finance stock buybacks, so there are some fundamentals forces at play in the market, decent values, low PE considering today's rates. There will be a few 2%-5% corrections, buy the dip.

Fed is terrified of raising rates as they can't blow the GDP projections with any slowing down of the consumer in a normalized rate environment. Hmm, what to do, what to do. A large part (65-75%) of the economy is debt fueled consumerism, they can't have that screeching to a halt. I triple dog dare them to raise rates a half a point. Come on, what type of American economy can't handle a half point?

The last magazine of ammo is real inflation, they are trying, give them some time. They will just print again and then print again. QE4, QE5. Add another war in there, a big one this time. More war debt, eagerly financed by global bankers, good inflation data should come soon enough.

Future generations of debt slaves but at least AARP will save social security.
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Old 03-02-2017, 02:57 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Houndstooth View Post
GT Cars haven't gone up in price, our currency has simply been devalued and sellers need more of the near worthless green pieces of paper & computer screen digits to trade for them.

Greece was supposed to bring down the Euro, Brexit was going to cause systemic havoc, Deutsche Bank was going to collapse, Trump was never going to get elected and the smart analysts proclaimed "Sell the inauguration!"

I'm with you, I think it will collapse, but not for a long time, as in 35-50 years for the "Big Reset." Companies used cheap money to finance stock buybacks, so there are some fundamentals forces at play in the market, decent values, low PE considering today's rates. There will be a few 2%-5% corrections, buy the dip.

Fed is terrified of raising rates as they can't blow the GDP projections with any slowing down of the consumer in a normalized rate environment. Hmm, what to do, what to do. A large part (65-75%) of the economy is debt fueled consumerism, they can't have that screeching to a halt. I triple dog dare them to raise rates a half a point. Come on, what type of American economy can't handle a half point?

The last magazine of ammo is real inflation, they are trying, give them some time. They will just print again and then print again. QE4, QE5. Add another war in there, a big one this time. More war debt, eagerly financed by global bankers, good inflation data should come soon enough.

Future generations of debt slaves but at least AARP will save social security.

To me, simply, there is too much sh*t. A never ending supply of crap to buy that far outstrips the people to buy it. I am in import/export and large American retailers are the worst. Always chasing lower price points and higher volume to boost revenue. American retail stopped making sense years ago. There are only so many third world labor markets we can use...
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Old 03-02-2017, 03:31 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by Just in time View Post
There is tons of cash sitting on the sidelines. Some of that cash is being put to use since the election. If you own the Dow 30 smile, if you don't go cry. All that cash though is the central banks printing presses going overtime. Hoe long can this go?
Central banks can keep kicking the can down the road longer than we can stay alive or solvent/liquid...whichever one comes first.
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Old 03-02-2017, 03:32 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by montoya View Post
I'll be the contrarian here- there are lots of factors at work here- demographics, deregulation, rising interest rates, cheap money, etc. All of those are converging to drive the market. I think, this is just the start of a bull market, there will be more ups than downs and over the next five years I think all asset classes will be significantly higher in value, including our new GT Porsches.

Now, don't ask me what the value of $1 will be five years from now!
I totally agree with you. Inflation will continue to rise and hard assets will also go up in nominal prices.
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Old 03-02-2017, 08:59 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by grendel88 View Post
To me, simply, there is too much sh*t. A never ending supply of crap to buy that far outstrips the people to buy it. I am in import/export and large American retailers are the worst. Always chasing lower price points and higher volume to boost revenue. American retail stopped making sense years ago. There are only so many third world labor markets we can use...
I've often wondered when "Peak Sh*t" would arrive in the USA? Evidently, people need more, I seriously have no idea anymore.

Originally Posted by usctrojanGT3 View Post
Central banks can keep kicking the can down the road longer than we can stay alive or solvent/liquid...whichever one comes first.
^This
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:12 AM
  #36  
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The stock market has generally being going up for the past 8 years, last recession was 8 years ago, recovery from the recession has been sluggish with a lot of geographic variation in housing recovery, and interest rates are still low.

I think a big driver of recent continuation of stock market gains is anticipation of tax breaks, major deficit spending to stimulate the economy in areas such as infrastructure and defense, and deregulation in various areas.

But eventually it will be time to pay the piper, and I'm guessing that we'll see a meaningful recession within the next four years.

I plan to let my stock gains run a while longer, but am prepared to take some chips off the table within the next year or two. I'm also looking to upgrade to a nicer house within the next year or so (making an offer on one soon), to park some money in a physical asset unlikely to depreciate and to take advantage of the current low interest rates.
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:17 AM
  #37  
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Anyone that think this hype will continue for the next 10 years is ignorant and doesn't have a rear view mirror.
Always been the problem with human greed. When things are up we get blindfolded and don't plan ahead for the bad times coming.

Every day I hear,

Money is cheap. Just borrow more and don't use your own money.
The opposite seems like a better idea. Pay off as much as you can when things are up and be depth free when it crashes.
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:24 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by 997rs4.0 View Post
Anyone that think this hype will continue for the next 10 years is ignorant and doesn't have a rear view mirror.
Always been the problem with human greed. When things are up we get blindfolded and don't plan ahead for the bad times coming.

Every day I hear,

Money is cheap. Just borrow more and don't use your own money.
The opposite seems like a better idea. Pay off as much as you can when things are up and be depth free when it crashes.
Why pay off your mortgage when things are up? If a house provides inflation protection (assuming not bought in a real estate bubble), why not keep cash ready to get back in when things are down?

I agree that it doesn't make sense to borrow money to buy depreciating assets like cars when things are up.
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Manifold View Post
Why pay off your mortgage when things are up? If a house provides inflation protection (assuming not bought in a real estate bubble), why not keep cash ready to get back in when things are down?

I agree that it doesn't make sense to borrow money to buy depreciating assets like cars when things are up.
Is a 996/997 GT-car a depreciating asset in your opinion too?
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:01 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by DK7
Is a 996/997 GT-car a depreciating asset in your opinion too?
They'll follow the stock market. Market and economy goes down, the cars will follow. Their bubble is just as big or bigger.

"Investing" in cars is rarely a smart idea IMO.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:15 AM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by DK7 View Post
Is a 996/997 GT-car a depreciating asset in your opinion too?
Some cars are exceptions, at least for a while, if miles aren't racked up by driving them regularly. I personally wouldn't buy any GT car mainly for investment purposes.
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Old 03-02-2017, 11:13 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by TRAKCAR View Post
Montanya, 0.10c

LOL!!
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Old 03-02-2017, 11:19 AM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by usctrojanGT3 View Post
Central banks can keep kicking the can down the road longer than we can stay alive or solvent/liquid...whichever one comes first.
But actually, they can't. They're at the precipice of some very serious unintended consequences and they can't keep flooding the market with cheap money. Far smarter people than me have written about this at length. The economy (global productivity) has to catch up with the valuation of assets and it's showing no signs of doing that. Financial markets are so perverted right now, it's impossible to assess/predict where the risk lies. Anyone who thinks the central banks can just keep printing money for the next 35-50 years doesn't understand financial economy.
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Old 03-02-2017, 11:57 AM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by Manifold
Why pay off your mortgage when things are up? If a house provides inflation protection (assuming not bought in a real estate bubble), why not keep cash ready to get back in when things are down?

I agree that it doesn't make sense to borrow money to buy depreciating assets like cars when things are up.
Just MO, I'm very cautious with money. Being depth free is the best feeling ever.

Interest rates going up = real estate going down/cars going down. With little or no mortgage = who cares. My house/cars are worth less. But, so is everything else.

When using other people's money you might be forced to sell at not ideal times.
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Old 03-02-2017, 12:11 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by 997rs4.0 View Post
Just MO, I'm very cautious with money. Being depth free is the best feeling ever.

Interest rates going up = real estate going down/cars going down. With little or no mortgage = who cares. My house/cars are worth less. But, so is everything else.

When using other people's money you might be forced to sell at not ideal times.
I'm with you, I'm cautious with money as well.

My thinking is that it's not a bad time to upgrade the home at this time, since a big real estate bubble has already burst and prices aren't yet much above the lows from 2011. I could pay cash for the house if necessary, but a mortgage at low interest rate with tax savings on mortgage interest would mean that I'm borrowing the money effectively at close to zero interest, and if there's inflation my monthly payments effectively go down while the value of the home (hopefully) holds or goes up to roughly match inflation even if there's a recession. At least that's my analysis, but I'm no financial whiz.
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