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Lies, damned lies, and statistics

 
Old 10-28-2014, 06:00 PM
  #31  
MarcusG
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Good stuff Pete!

Graphs are like maps to me. Fantastic!

Did you get the Ferrari performance data from Ferrari? If I missed it I apologize.

I keep thinking about that old Chris Harris article he wrote about Ferrari and their ringers they hand out to journalists and such. If Ferrari's numbers are suspect, it only helps the Porsche delta.

Cheers!
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Old 10-28-2014, 06:30 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by <3mph View Post
Thanks Pete! Fantastic analysis as always. Would you be willing to show us the graph with these other special edition cars included please?
It gets complicated- cars like the 968 club sport were never available in the US, etc. But for a couple cases:

The 964 RS America had a 3% better power to weight ratio than the C2, but cost $10k less. Overall it performed 24% better on this scale than the C2. According to Hagerty, an average C2 has lost 66% of its value, while the average RS America has gained a nearly identical amount.

The 968 Club Sport, another budget enthusiast model born in the dark early 90s before Porsche systematically did currency hedging, was again a bit over 15% cheaper and significantly lighter, in total 29% better than the base 968 on the scale. Today Club Sports seem to trade for over 2x, maybe 3x the base model.

Perhaps because both of these models came out in the early 90s, shortly after a big dip in the value of the USD vs the DM, neither does terribly well outright on the price/ performance scale, though both are obviously much better than the cars they are based on. They may have been desperate attempts to prop up sales, but collectors and history seems to have judged them very well.

Originally Posted by <3mph View Post
Also, can you show us where the other current Motorsports editions show up (RSR, R, Cup, etc), that is if pricing and performance info is available for these cars
Turns out that the GT3 Cup falls quite in line, see below, perhaps fitting. Meanwhile the GT3 RSR needs to run under minimum weight rules and intake restrictor plates to comply with a class, so it actually does rather terribly.


Originally Posted by <3mph View Post
Any comments on the 960 (well, on the rumours surrounding its performance and price) and how it could compare?
Way off into the "pure speculation" weeds...

The 991 GT3 is 15% "above the line". A 280k 960 at 3150 lbs and 15% above the line would come in at exactly 600 hp, while "on the line" would be just under 580 hp. If you think it's 3300 lbs/ 280k power would go up 25 hp, while every $1500 in price +/- is equivalent to 1 hp. So this pattern, if they stick to it, draws a pretty small box to work within. Total speculation, of course...

Originally Posted by MarcusG View Post
Did you get the Ferrari performance data from Ferrari? If I missed it I apologize.
I'm going totally of published figures for power, MSRP, etc. In fact I think the GT guys are gaming, under rating the GT3 so that they don't "break" the system. Which would mean the GT3 is an even better value on this scale than it looks. Though still no where close to something like the Z06...
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Old 10-28-2014, 09:20 PM
  #33  
Nick
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Pete, this is as good as it gets. Beautifully explained AND TIMELY.

Usable power is becoming increasingly important given the apparent race to increase hp throughout high performance cars. The reality is that though I love my 991GT3 with its modest hp (compared to other high performance cars) there are very few places the power can be used unless it is tracked on a major circuit. Driving it I feel handcuffed. The car aches to show it prowess but there are precious few venues to allow it to do so.

So the question becomes are these cars from a value standpoint worth it? My GT3 can be the best performance value of the century but what good is the performance if it cannot be used?
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Old 10-28-2014, 09:57 PM
  #34  
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Thank you Pete! Superb!! I suppose PAG can arbitrarily add or delete superfluous features and raise or lower the price accordingly to make sure pricing conforms to this line. Nevertheless the consistency of all these data points suggests PAG cares about this relationship between performance and price and actively controls either or both. The fact they seem to care enough to do this (vs pricing to achieve other goals) leads me to imagine at its heart PAG remains true to its engineering and motorsports roots.
I'd be curious to know if the relationship holds using German pricing and in other global markets (I presume it does).
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Old 10-28-2014, 10:57 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Nick View Post
Usable power is becoming increasingly important given the apparent race to increase hp throughout high performance cars. The reality is that though I love my 991GT3 with its modest hp (compared to other high performance cars) there are very few places the power can be used unless it is tracked on a major circuit. Driving it I feel handcuffed. The car aches to show it prowess but there are precious few venues to allow it to do so.

So the question becomes are these cars from a value standpoint worth it? My GT3 can be the best performance value of the century but what good is the performance if it cannot be used?
And that applies to so many cars. Sports cars are getting faster and in many cases need to be wound up to higher speeds to feel sporty, but roads aren't correspondingly being designed/built to accommodate faster cars, and worsening traffic congestion doesn't help either.

I suggest that you take it to the track at least once and see what you think.
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Old 10-29-2014, 06:16 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Nick View Post
Pete, this is as good as it gets. Beautifully explained AND TIMELY.

Usable power is becoming increasingly important given the apparent race to increase hp throughout high performance cars. The reality is that though I love my 991GT3 with its modest hp (compared to other high performance cars) there are very few places the power can be used unless it is tracked on a major circuit. Driving it I feel handcuffed. The car aches to show it prowess but there are precious few venues to allow it to do so.

So the question becomes are these cars from a value standpoint worth it? My GT3 can be the best performance value of the century but what good is the performance if it cannot be used?
I think this is the crux of Porsche's dilemma.

Race cars largely stopped getting faster three decades ago. F1 cars and endurance racers were capped, Group B rally was killed, and everything in between was carefully legislated. Even 30 years ago race cars had outgrown both courses and drivers.

Nothing has limited the street car, however. The best drivers in the world were once unable to control Group B cars on real roads, but today a Ferrari F12 achieves similar power to weight ratios, while a LaFerrari comfortably eclipses them. Driver assisting electronics might let today's mortals play champions, but Group B proved the point: using that much performance is impossible virtually everywhere!

Porsche knows this, and takes the tact of a WRC car instead, which despite being less than half the power to weight of Group B use big improvements everywhere else to make them just as fast down a tight course. A mortal can still only use a fraction of that performance on the street, but they can use more of it. The latest GT3, PDK and rear wheel steering only, seems almost a study in making a car faster without resorting to a higher power to weight ratio, while the 918, as fast is at clearly is, takes the philosophy even further with four wheel drive.

As good as Porsche is at making all this power usable, however, the fact remains that these are ridiculously fast cars- shorts of a track, the autobahn or a few clear corners you simply can't use all of them. Which, as you've found, is a huge shame, because driving a fast car slowly gets frustrating. At the same time on the track you can use all of that performance, and many wish for more!

It seems Porsche has long been trying to walk a middle ground, making cars that are great for both street and track, but it seems that's getting harder and harder to do.

Personally I solve the dilemma by having a slower car I can use nearly all of for the street, then a fast car that's generally ludicrous on the street but a blast in the right setting. If the GT cars get their own line I think this would be the argument- horses for courses are at some point required. And that's an argument I think I buy into- I'd love to see them cut loose for the competition oriented "specials", while focusing highly on involvement for some fraction of the street cars. But that would seem to mean pushing the GT cars and street cars further apart, where if anything the newer less compromised GT cars and street cars seem to be moving closer together.

Perhaps there are not enough like-minded customers to justify that strategy, or perhaps the high point for the GT3 really is the start of a trend. Either way they seem tricky waters to navigate, but we'll get a hint soon with the RS and GT4...
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Old 10-30-2014, 01:11 PM
  #37  
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One last chart... I looked for outliers to the trend, and found two. The 2011 Boxster Spyder and 2011 GT2 RS are above the trend line, the latter dramatically so. These are recent and very driver focused models- they seem to indicate with the 991 GT3 that there is a new trend for Porsche's "hottest" models, though not all of them- the Cayman R did poorly, for example.



There is suggestion that the GT2 RS was a direct response to the Nissan GT-R's 'Ring time. Suggesting that perhaps when push comes to shove, Porsche will engage in the HP war after all. For that kind of car, here's hoping!
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Old 09-14-2015, 02:56 PM
  #38  
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How last GT3 RS show against previous GT3 RS?

same question for last GT3 vs past GT3s
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Old 09-14-2015, 03:24 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Petevb View Post
The simple fix to the case above would be to make the base 991 even faster, but is that really a solution? When you look at a bell curve of the customer's driver ability, how fast a car can most really handle and enjoy on the street? Yes technology means you can make a car quicker, but taking the Ferrari F12 is an example, with even Jeremy Clarkson suggesting it's too fast, the question becomes should you?

Interestingly both strategies so far seem to result in more similar speed per dollar: witness the 991 GT3 running the McLaren 650S and 458 Speciale close on the track despite a 25% power to weight disadvantage, or the 918 beating the higher power P1 around the track, while arguably being far more usable nearly everywhere else. In fact if you plot track time vs $, cars that do particularly well often have similar philosophies of "usable power", ie the GT-R, Z-28 and GT3. These are all "giant killers", at least looking at their track performance vs the spec sheet, a tradition that goes way back at Porsche and one they seem intent on upholding.
Entertaining stuff Pete, though pity the poor Boxster - doesn't even get a ranking

GT350 looks set to be the real giant killer in terms of $/perf.

IMO the way forward should be less weight, though it's not nearly as easy as more power and hence more costly. But boy does it pay healthy dividends.
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Old 09-14-2015, 03:51 PM
  #40  
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I know this was an old thread, but would like to see these with inflation adjusted prices. Good stuff.
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Old 09-14-2015, 03:59 PM
  #41  
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Nice to meet a fellow super geek on the internet. I created a similar car stat hp/wt chart about 6 or 7 years ago on M3 forum based on nurburgring times and power to weight ratios. It's fascinating. I got all kinds of vehement arguments about tires and suspension setups and massive amounts of hyperbolic nonsense, but the stats are the stats. With the exception of the Nissan GTR (which was probably under-rated for power at the time), there is an absolute relationship between power to weight ratio and ring time with very little variance:


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Old 09-14-2015, 08:47 PM
  #42  
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Pete,

Anyway to graph in the 1973 Carrera RS? Inflation adjusted?

Dan (curiously would like to compare that to a 991 GT3)
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