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Lies, damned lies, and statistics

 
Old 10-26-2014, 12:26 PM
  #16  
TRAKCAR
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Originally Posted by Zulu Alpha View Post
That's really cool Pete this is awesome. I took the liberty in taking your model and plotting an extra point for the RS. What was interesting, let's say Porsche goes by the model you presented then and if:

GT3: 475 @1430 kg - 332 hp/mt $131,000 Turbo: 520 @ 1594 kg - 326 hp/mt $151,000 Turbo S: 560 @ 1627 kg - 344 hp/mt $182,000

After plugging in those numbers and if this is the model then my hypothesis for the RS should look something like this.

GT3 RS: 500 @1415 kg - 353 hp/mt $162,000

Following the linear curve of the Turbo and Turbo S with the GT3 being an outlier, then the RS following the same outlier would should fall at a price of $162,000 MSRP.
Great read Pete, thank you.
Zulu, I'll take that as a confirmation the new RS needs to have more than 500HP and or be lighter than 1415KG to be $180K :-)
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Old 10-26-2014, 01:02 PM
  #17  
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This is cool data. Can you do a graph of the Porsches without the Carrera GT and 918, plotted with linear scale on the X axis, then fit a 2nd or 3rd order polynomial and extend the trend line? Or if you post the data, I can do it.
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Old 10-26-2014, 02:30 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by TRAKCAR View Post
Great read Pete, thank you. Zulu, I'll take that as a confirmation the new RS needs to have more than 500HP and or be lighter than 1415KG to be $180K :-)
Correctamondo
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Old 10-26-2014, 03:46 PM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by Snowboarder54 View Post
More useless statistics, just drive and enjoy! I don't need a graph to tell me how brilliant my car is!
Grumpy Ralph... You don't need a graph, but you did need more power!
Originally Posted by mrsullivan View Post
We need guys like you at my firm. If you ever consider a move, PM me, I am serious :-)
Ha. Despite the fact that my girl would love Austin, I think I'm staying put. But thanks ;-)
Originally Posted by Zulu Alpha View Post
That's really cool Pete this is awesome. I took the liberty in taking your model and plotting an extra point for the RS.
I used USD and US (short) tons, not metric, but I came to the same conclusion. If the RS comes in at 500 hp it will be right on top of the old 4.0 RS, which itself is right on the line. So either it will be a step back on Porsche's "value" scale, below the new GT3, or the rumored price, power or weight will need to give. My crystal ball, unencumbered by data, suggests they will maintain the price but rate it at more power- 515 hp? Or perhaps the 991 GT3 was a one-off exception to the rule...

The data set I used for those that want to play. Current Porsches are right off the US website:

HP, Curb Weight , MSRP
Cayman 275 2888 52600
Cayman S 325 2910 63800
Cayman GTS 340 2965 75200
Base Carrera 350 3042 84300
Carrera S 400 3075 98900
50th 430 3109 121400
GT3 475 3153 130400
Turbo 520 3516 151100
Turbo S 560 3538 182700
918 Spyder 887 3692 845000
918 Weissach Edition 887 3602 929000

Historic Porsches
2005 Carrera S 355 3130 79100
Carrera GT 605 3040 448000
1999 Carrera 996 296 2901 67500
1995 Carrera 993 272 3020 59900
1990 Carrera 964 247 3031 51200
1984 911 Carrera 207 2756 32000
1980 911 SC 180 2557 27700
1980 928 231 3197 38800
1986 Porsche 944 Turbo 217 3040 29500
1987 Porsche 928 S4 320 3505 58900

Chevrolet
Corvette 455 3300 54000
Z06 650 3524 79000
Camaro V6 323 3750 24700
Camaro V8 426 3860 34500
Z28 505 3837 72305
Camaro ZL1 580 4120 55505

Historic
2001 Z06 385 3115 48500
2006 Z06 505 3130 65800
2015 Corvette Z06 650 3524 79000


Ferrari
F458 562 3274 237300
F12 730 3362 316000
LaFerrari 950 2767 1350000
F458 562 3274 237300
F458 Speciale 596 3070 298000

Historic
1996 F550 485 3726 196300
2002 F575 540 3814 214700
2006 F599 620 3721 264000
2013 F12 730 3362 316000
Enzo 651 2767 643000
F360 405 2844 138225
F430 483 3197 170000
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Old 10-26-2014, 03:55 PM
  #20  
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This is all very cool stuff. I seriously wonder if anyone at Porsche keeps an eye on this forum? Threads like this and a few other threads I would think would be very valuable to Porsche about there customers wants and needs for new products.

Then I'm reminded Porsche keeps putting Center Lock wheels on its cars so I doubt if they read and seriously consider what we say on these forums.
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Old 10-26-2014, 05:25 PM
  #21  
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Great work Pete. Well done. Mark
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Old 10-26-2014, 07:51 PM
  #22  
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Very nice data. Excellent work.
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Old 10-27-2014, 05:40 AM
  #23  
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Cool stuff. Thanks.
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Old 10-27-2014, 06:08 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by mdrums View Post
This is all very cool stuff. I seriously wonder if anyone at Porsche keeps an eye on this forum? Threads like this and a few other threads I would think would be very valuable to Porsche about there customers wants and needs for new products.
I'm not quite sure what I think ... Clearly Porsche marketing is gaming their lineup, as we already knew, and on one level it's easy to feel played and insulted. On the other hand, there are clearly some upsides to the strategy, and it's not clear where the fault, if any, lies.

We know that the Cayman S uses the same motor as the base Carrera but with software that cuts 25 hp. If it wasn't limited it'd be both quicker and less expensive- would the business case for the base 991 go away in that case? And would that be Porsche's fault, or its customers?

The simple fix to the case above would be to make the base 991 even faster, but is that really a solution? When you look at a bell curve of the customer's driver ability, how fast a car can most really handle and enjoy on the street? Yes technology means you can make a car quicker, but taking the Ferrari F12 is an example, with even Jeremy Clarkson suggesting it's too fast, the question becomes should you?

Porsche seems to be handling this question so far by emphasizing the usability of its power. While the new BMW M4 is significantly "above the line" in terms of power/ weight vs cost, on track that power largely only gets the rear end all the more sideways. In the Porsche tradition, by contrast, a Carrera S converts similar power into lots of forward momentum rather than tire smoke.

Interestingly both strategies so far seem to result in more similar speed per dollar: witness the 991 GT3 running the McLaren 650S and 458 Speciale close on the track despite a 25% power to weight disadvantage, or the 918 beating the higher power P1 around the track, while arguably being far more usable nearly everywhere else. In fact if you plot track time vs $, cars that do particularly well often have similar philosophies of "usable power", ie the GT-R, Z-28 and GT3. These are all "giant killers", at least looking at their track performance vs the spec sheet, a tradition that goes way back at Porsche and one they seem intent on upholding.

While this is something I can respect, I see a couple problems.

First, this path seems to require doubling down on the stupendous grip the street cars already have, and I must admit that I get pleasure from the feel of a car moving around. While this is a feel you get in spades from older Porsches with less grip, it's already relatively difficult to find the space to access this feeling in a modern one on the street. Exactly how limpet-like will future Porsches become?

Second, this strategy only goes so far. The old Z06 was already a beast at the 'Ring- give it the Z28's suspension magic plus power and the new one's going to be epic. Will the Porsche track faction, largely composed of the part of the bell curve that can handle the power, be OK with being left behind? I note that while JC felt the Ferrari F12 was too much, the Stig felt it was exactly his kind of car. And that power to weight is a half million plus car on Porsche's current curve, with the new Z06 not far behind. Is that what Stig wannabes are going to need to spend to get that kind of chassis mobility?

I don't have good answers to the above. Do you split the lineup, and allow the GT cars their own price/ performance curve, even as the GT cars are becoming more streetable? Do you simply lie through your teeth with the GT cars, as BMW did with the 1M, under-rating it enough that the M3 guys would be OK and hoping no-one notices?

I imagine the debates within Porsche, and between Porsche and VW, must be fascinating. One thing is clear- the mathematical precision here clearly comes from the top, and ties lots of hands if you're developing a car.
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Old 10-27-2014, 06:30 PM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Petevb View Post
Do you split the lineup, and allow the GT cars their own price/ performance curve, even as the GT cars are becoming more streetable? Do you simply lie through your teeth with the GT cars, as BMW did with the 1M, under-rating it enough that the M3 guys would be OK and hoping no-one notices?
This is one of the things I was hoping for the GT4. That Porsche would make the GT "pecking order" separate from the normal pecking order like BMW/MB or Audi does with M/AMG and RS respectively - BMW (and their customers) seems okay for M3 having better performance (read power-to-weight ratio) than a 535i or even a 550i, but just not M5. Heck, even 1M (and coming M2) definitely beats the 535i (and probably beats 550i too) in the power-to-weight metrics. Same with AMG, A45 is definitely higher up in the performance pecking order than bunch of vanilla C and E models, but just not the AMG C and E. No one at any of these companies seem to be loosing sleep over it.

It will be awesome if Porsche also took a similar approach for the GT line. Which would make it ok for a Cayman GT4 to outperform a base Carrera and even Carrera S as long as it doesn't step on GT3's toes. Well at least, one can hope.

ps. Love your posts, both substance and style.
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Old 10-27-2014, 06:59 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by sunnyr View Post
This is one of the things I was hoping for the GT4. That Porsche would make the GT "pecking order" separate from the normal pecking order like BMW/MB or Audi does with M/AMG and RS respectively - BMW (and their customers) seems okay for M3 having better performance (read power-to-weight ratio) than a 535i or even a 550i, but just not M5....

It will be awesome if Porsche also took a similar approach for the GT line. Which would make it ok for a Cayman GT4 to outperform a base Carrera and even Carrera S as long as it doesn't step on GT3's toes. Well at least, one can hope.
There is precedent for this within Porsche, ie the Panamera gets its own curve:



While the SUVs get their own line too, above the sedans surprisingly.

Once upon a time cars like the Club Sport, RS America, etc used to be both cheaper and lighter, so it has been done. And on that topic, those cars did very well over time, enough so that I thought it'd be interesting to graph. I know that in the long term the RS America, Clubsports, GT3s have outperformed- in part because of their relative "value"?

The counter argument is that you don't want to **** customers off, and I think quite a few regular 964 owners probably were pissed when a lighter, faster, cheaper model came out. You can deal with this argument partly by making the cars less luxurious and practical, but the 991 GT3 has gone in the other direction. Still...
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Old 10-27-2014, 07:53 PM
  #27  
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This is great stuff. Thanks for posting!
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Old 10-27-2014, 11:18 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Petevb View Post
There is precedent for this within Porsche, ie the Panamera gets its own curve:


Cool, let us hope the GT3 existing at a slightly elevated point is not an anomaly but rather a germinal point for a "GT" curve.

Last edited by sunnyr; 10-28-2014 at 01:37 AM.
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Old 10-27-2014, 11:47 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by Petevb View Post
Once upon a time cars like the Club Sport, RS America, etc used to be both cheaper and lighter, so it has been done. And on that topic, those cars did very well over time, enough so that I thought it'd be interesting to graph.
Thanks Pete! Fantastic analysis as always. Would you be willing to show us the graph with these other special edition cars included please? Also, can you show us where the other current Motorsports editions show up (RSR, R, Cup, etc), that is if pricing and performance info is available for these cars (I'm assuming you might be able to get that info if anyone can)? I wonder how the GT cars will line up compared to the Motorsports cars. Any comments on the 960 (well, on the rumours surrounding its performance and price) and how it could compare?--in case this provides some insight on where the future might lead.
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Old 10-28-2014, 05:33 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Petevb View Post
There is precedent for this within Porsche, ie the Panamera gets its own curve:
The SUVs and sedans play in a much more competitive segment, so I would think pricing would have to be less. Some might also argue that with higher volume, prices are able to be lower than the sports car line. My cynical side prefers to think that instead Porsche pricing is based on what they can get, rather than some markup over cost.
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