Sales July 991 GT3
08-04-2014, 06:50 PM
#19
Phew!!! You had me a tad worried, Macca. Your intel usual is pretty spot on. But then again, I'm a newbie and a bit more gullible than all you experts.
08-04-2014, 06:55 PM
#21
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I think PAG will make a call in September as to whether 991 GT3 production will continue beyond October or if they will direct all resourced to 991 GT3RS production which I have been told will start in Oct/Nov (LHD cars first).
If PAG were smart they would stop production of 991 GT3 at 1300 units in October, announce it and put the latent demand into teh more expensive and margin rich 991 GT3RS (they could quite easily build 2000 of these this time around if they wish with the additional production slots left form the 991 GT3).
08-04-2014, 07:25 PM
#23
Nordschleife Master
08-04-2014, 07:27 PM
#24
08-04-2014, 07:48 PM
#25
Rennlist Member
Orthjoe is correct. The 2009 GT3 was a GFC abnormally. More RS were produced 18 months later than GT3!
The first part of my post on the 785 units (i.e. complete 2014 MY production capped) was based on reliable information I have been told and I believe this. the second part of my email about whether they will just complete Sept/Oct build then close the series and move on to 991 GT3RS from Oct/Nov is (my) pure speculation.
Very few people in teh world will know what is happening. Perhaps they will soldier on with the GT3 production and try and make their loss back by volume. By my reckoning they would need to produce 2000 x 991 GT3 (MY14+MY15) to recover the lost margin from engine replacements, dealer payments, airfreight logistics, legal, development costs, production tooling and compensation payments (probably alone 10 million E). Or they could move on and produce an additional 400 units of 991 GT3RS above their original forecast and recover the loss AND be in profit! Not sure but I think Id move on and do the latter if I were a PAG product planner and accountant...
The first part of my post on the 785 units (i.e. complete 2014 MY production capped) was based on reliable information I have been told and I believe this. the second part of my email about whether they will just complete Sept/Oct build then close the series and move on to 991 GT3RS from Oct/Nov is (my) pure speculation.
Very few people in teh world will know what is happening. Perhaps they will soldier on with the GT3 production and try and make their loss back by volume. By my reckoning they would need to produce 2000 x 991 GT3 (MY14+MY15) to recover the lost margin from engine replacements, dealer payments, airfreight logistics, legal, development costs, production tooling and compensation payments (probably alone 10 million E). Or they could move on and produce an additional 400 units of 991 GT3RS above their original forecast and recover the loss AND be in profit! Not sure but I think Id move on and do the latter if I were a PAG product planner and accountant...
08-04-2014, 08:09 PM
#26
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Hmmm, interesting.
Assuming PAG would consider shutting down 3 production, the question is will the demand be there given the premium of the RS? IMO RS's have historically offered little by way of extra accessible performance for a big premium.
The other issue is inventory. How much GT3 specific inventory would they eat which cannot be used on the RS? Or the other way around, can they tool up for the widebody production increase and source all the extra RS parts from vendors if they double original forecasts.
Assuming PAG would consider shutting down 3 production, the question is will the demand be there given the premium of the RS? IMO RS's have historically offered little by way of extra accessible performance for a big premium.
The other issue is inventory. How much GT3 specific inventory would they eat which cannot be used on the RS? Or the other way around, can they tool up for the widebody production increase and source all the extra RS parts from vendors if they double original forecasts.
08-04-2014, 08:18 PM
#27
Rennlist Member
Yes interesting questions. I suspect someone at PAG knows the answers!
The parts supply chain for the 991 GT3 has already been fractured from a JIT perspective with the "recall" and "stop production" orders. I suggest that the suppliers are already aware of the new production volumes/supply times. Given the suppliers are likely 100% the same across the GT3+RS models I doubt there will be any nominal net loss of revenue for them. Regardless Im sure PAG hold all the cards in relation to the supplier agreements!
As to wether there is enough demand for 2000 units of 991 GT3RS at a elevated price (lets assume 170K Euro base including taxes) I should think there probably is. This car will no doubt equal or out perform the Speciale in most marketing metrics (Ring time etc). The Speciale is a 250K E proposition. My guess is with the additional aero the 991 GT3 will be a rapid track special lifting teh game pon from the GT3 which is already very very close in terms of performance and media rating to teh Speciale at double the price. With emerging markets etc I would expect 1800-2000 units of sales over 15-18 months to be feasible.
Its probably unlikely in relativity they will cut GT3 production in Oct/Nov, even though they are experiencing a situation where many of their European and home market dealers are sitting on used (returned) GT3 inventory in the short term. However if they did it would be fairly unprecedented. Not a good initial signal for the 991 GT3 after its esteemed start, however history has shown us that in teh distant future cars that get production cut to lower volumes often lead to cult status and elevated resale value. Who knows. Most of us wont own these when taht time comes but its a small silver lining in the cloud.
The parts supply chain for the 991 GT3 has already been fractured from a JIT perspective with the "recall" and "stop production" orders. I suggest that the suppliers are already aware of the new production volumes/supply times. Given the suppliers are likely 100% the same across the GT3+RS models I doubt there will be any nominal net loss of revenue for them. Regardless Im sure PAG hold all the cards in relation to the supplier agreements!
As to wether there is enough demand for 2000 units of 991 GT3RS at a elevated price (lets assume 170K Euro base including taxes) I should think there probably is. This car will no doubt equal or out perform the Speciale in most marketing metrics (Ring time etc). The Speciale is a 250K E proposition. My guess is with the additional aero the 991 GT3 will be a rapid track special lifting teh game pon from the GT3 which is already very very close in terms of performance and media rating to teh Speciale at double the price. With emerging markets etc I would expect 1800-2000 units of sales over 15-18 months to be feasible.
Its probably unlikely in relativity they will cut GT3 production in Oct/Nov, even though they are experiencing a situation where many of their European and home market dealers are sitting on used (returned) GT3 inventory in the short term. However if they did it would be fairly unprecedented. Not a good initial signal for the 991 GT3 after its esteemed start, however history has shown us that in teh distant future cars that get production cut to lower volumes often lead to cult status and elevated resale value. Who knows. Most of us wont own these when taht time comes but its a small silver lining in the cloud.
08-04-2014, 09:41 PM
#28
Rennlist Member
The parts supply chain for the 991 GT3 has already been fractured
As to wether there is enough demand for 2000 units of 991 GT3RS at a elevated price (lets assume 170K Euro base including taxes) I should think there probably is. This car will no doubt equal or out perform the Speciale in most marketing metrics (Ring time etc). The Speciale is a 250K E proposition. My guess is with the additional aero the 991 GT3 will be a rapid track special lifting teh game pon from the GT3 which is already very very close in terms of performance and media rating to teh Speciale at double the price. With emerging markets etc I would expect 1800-2000 units of sales over 15-18 months to be feasible.
Its probably unlikely in relativity they will cut GT3 production in Oct/Nov, even though they are experiencing a situation where many of their European and home market dealers are sitting on used (returned) GT3 inventory in the short term. However if they did it would be fairly unprecedented. Not a good initial signal for the 991 GT3 after its esteemed start, however history has shown us that in teh distant future cars that get production cut to lower volumes often lead to cult status and elevated resale value. Who knows. Most of us wont own these when taht time comes but its a small silver lining in the cloud.
Their fine-tuned supply line for the GT3 is already disrupted and they don't like the appearance of GT3s sitting returned on their dealer lots in Germany.
Plus the folks at PAG now realized they charged far too little for the GT3, but they can fix that mistake but charging a lot for the GT3RS and making more of the RS than they planned, but in a nice orderly planned way, as the Germans prefer. Instead of the recent struggle to catch up with the GT3 production, which much have given ulcers to many at PAG!
I actually hope they do exactly that. It will maintain values for our 991 GT3s, which we deserve after the fiasco we all went through.
08-04-2014, 10:34 PM
#29
Burning Brakes
It should be kept in mind that, from an earnings perspective, Porsche/VW has already suffered the loss and it will be reported as as having been incurred. So, it is BEHIND THEM and will not effect future earnings, or be offset by future earnings. There should be little effect on product timing except as influenced by market conditions and efficiency. Allan
08-04-2014, 11:17 PM
#30
Race Director
What ever the outcome; so no one is freaked out from these theories; if you have a build sheet and a commission number you will be fine. But until any new "true" 2015 allocations are announced; I will reserve the right not to speculate because this is going to be interesting what they decide to do.