When to buy the .1?
10-18-2017, 08:50 PM
#1
Three Wheelin'
Thread Starter
When to buy the .1?
.1 inventory is definitely on the rise. They are no longer moving at their previous pre-.2 prices. While prices are starting to fall in response to softening demand, the question becomes at what price point will they actually start to find buyers?
Maybe a quick depreciation analysis is in order. Recent historical research suggests that run of the mill 911’s will retain perhaps 55% of their value after 3 years.
If we take a hypothetical $160k MSRP .1, and run the numbers based on that, we would be looking at something like this for current values now that MY 2018’s are being delivered:
2014- $72k
2015- $87k
2016- $107k
But since this is a GT3, let’s reduce the rate of annual depreciation by an arbitrary 15% just to generate some upwardly adjusted values:
2014 - $80
2015 - $96
2016 - $114
Neither of those sets of numbers resembles the current .1 landscape.
At what pricing would you be a .1 buyer, and when do you think we will see those prices?
Maybe a quick depreciation analysis is in order. Recent historical research suggests that run of the mill 911’s will retain perhaps 55% of their value after 3 years.
If we take a hypothetical $160k MSRP .1, and run the numbers based on that, we would be looking at something like this for current values now that MY 2018’s are being delivered:
2014- $72k
2015- $87k
2016- $107k
But since this is a GT3, let’s reduce the rate of annual depreciation by an arbitrary 15% just to generate some upwardly adjusted values:
2014 - $80
2015 - $96
2016 - $114
Neither of those sets of numbers resembles the current .1 landscape.
At what pricing would you be a .1 buyer, and when do you think we will see those prices?
10-18-2017, 09:01 PM
#3
Burning Brakes
Your analysis is flawed.
You won’t see retail prices that low for a long time unless the cars are clapped out.
I drove a .2 GT3 yesterday and if I wasn’t getting a manual I would have kept my .1 GT3.
I still feel my 991.1 GT3 RS is better than the .2 GT3.
If it wasn’t for the manual transmission I really didn’t see a reason to upgrade to the .2
Maybe if you are constantly at 10/10ths on the track you may feel a difference between pdk versions, but I am skeptical after driving the .2.
You won’t see retail prices that low for a long time unless the cars are clapped out.
I drove a .2 GT3 yesterday and if I wasn’t getting a manual I would have kept my .1 GT3.
I still feel my 991.1 GT3 RS is better than the .2 GT3.
If it wasn’t for the manual transmission I really didn’t see a reason to upgrade to the .2
Maybe if you are constantly at 10/10ths on the track you may feel a difference between pdk versions, but I am skeptical after driving the .2.
10-18-2017, 09:03 PM
#4
Burning Brakes
Completely ridiculous analysis, no basis in reality. Or...to put it another way...let us know when you find one for those prices..
.1 inventory is definitely on the rise. They are no longer moving at their previous pre-.2 prices. While prices are starting to fall in response to softening demand, the question becomes at what price point will they actually start to find buyers?
Maybe a quick depreciation analysis is in order. Recent historical research suggests that run of the mill 911’s will retain perhaps 55% of their value after 3 years.
If we take a hypothetical $160k MSRP .1, and run the numbers based on that, we would be looking at something like this for current values now that MY 2018’s are being delivered:
2014- $72k
2015- $87k
2016- $107k
But since this is a GT3, let’s reduce the rate of annual depreciation by an arbitrary 15% just to generate some upwardly adjusted values:
2014 - $80
2015 - $96
2016 - $114
Neither of those sets of numbers resembles the current .1 landscape.
At what pricing would you be a .1 buyer, and when do you think we will see those prices?
Maybe a quick depreciation analysis is in order. Recent historical research suggests that run of the mill 911’s will retain perhaps 55% of their value after 3 years.
If we take a hypothetical $160k MSRP .1, and run the numbers based on that, we would be looking at something like this for current values now that MY 2018’s are being delivered:
2014- $72k
2015- $87k
2016- $107k
But since this is a GT3, let’s reduce the rate of annual depreciation by an arbitrary 15% just to generate some upwardly adjusted values:
2014 - $80
2015 - $96
2016 - $114
Neither of those sets of numbers resembles the current .1 landscape.
At what pricing would you be a .1 buyer, and when do you think we will see those prices?
10-18-2017, 09:34 PM
#5
Three Wheelin'
Thread Starter
Not meant to be an analysis, only an attempt to gain perspective. The question here is at what pricing would you be a .1 buyer, and when do you think we will see those prices?
We would like to hear from prospective .1 buyers, not current owners.
We would like to hear from prospective .1 buyers, not current owners.
10-18-2017, 09:41 PM
#6
Race Director
Your analysis is flawed.
You won’t see retail prices that low for a long time unless the cars are clapped out.
I drove a .2 GT3 yesterday and if I wasn’t getting a manual I would have kept my .1 GT3.
I still feel my 991.1 GT3 RS is better than the .2 GT3.
If it wasn’t for the manual transmission I really didn’t see a reason to upgrade to the .2
Maybe if you are constantly at 10/10ths on the track you may feel a difference between pdk versions, but I am skeptical after driving the .2.
You won’t see retail prices that low for a long time unless the cars are clapped out.
I drove a .2 GT3 yesterday and if I wasn’t getting a manual I would have kept my .1 GT3.
I still feel my 991.1 GT3 RS is better than the .2 GT3.
If it wasn’t for the manual transmission I really didn’t see a reason to upgrade to the .2
Maybe if you are constantly at 10/10ths on the track you may feel a difference between pdk versions, but I am skeptical after driving the .2.
10-18-2017, 09:44 PM
#7
I have seen several 2007 GT3's recently for close to 100k and very near the original sticker. Granted these are manual cars etc and may hold nostalgia for some but the 991 is better in every single way. So I seriously doubt they will drop sharply. If anything, they should strengthen due to knowledge being out there about the engine replacement for top end issues.
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10-18-2017, 09:46 PM
#8
Three Wheelin'
I'm waiting for the .2 GT3 manuals to start arriving stateside so it can finally disrupt this inflated market.
When they do, grab some popcorn, open your umbrella and take a seat because **** is going to hit the fan.
I think .1 GT3's will float around 100-120K and it's good to finally see 911R's drop 80-100K and .1 GTS RS 50-70K within the past 4 months.
When they do, grab some popcorn, open your umbrella and take a seat because **** is going to hit the fan.
I think .1 GT3's will float around 100-120K and it's good to finally see 911R's drop 80-100K and .1 GTS RS 50-70K within the past 4 months.
10-18-2017, 10:33 PM
#9
Drifting
To the OP, now or relatively soon is the time to buy because:
(1) There are serial buyers who are (pre-)trading to get into their forthcoming facelift cars
(2) Many "buyers" have not faced the realization that a nice .2 GT3 could be $200K - or more! - out the door:
MSRP = $145K
Nice build = $160-$180K
With 7% taxes = $171-$193K
Gotta pay ADM or buy from a flipper? Add that onto the tab (and pay taxes on that too)
You want pain protection film on your ~$200K car, right?
What about an exhaust? Another $2K if you want one
What if you're buying the car from a flipper? Might need to ship it enclosed (a few thousand more)
Big difference in price between a used 991.1 and a fresh 991.2...
My 997.1 with 22k miles got hit by a 16 year old girl in 2015; her father's insurance company had to pay me $10K OVER original MSRP
(1) There are serial buyers who are (pre-)trading to get into their forthcoming facelift cars
(2) Many "buyers" have not faced the realization that a nice .2 GT3 could be $200K - or more! - out the door:
MSRP = $145K
Nice build = $160-$180K
With 7% taxes = $171-$193K
Gotta pay ADM or buy from a flipper? Add that onto the tab (and pay taxes on that too)
You want pain protection film on your ~$200K car, right?
What about an exhaust? Another $2K if you want one
What if you're buying the car from a flipper? Might need to ship it enclosed (a few thousand more)
Big difference in price between a used 991.1 and a fresh 991.2...
I have seen several 2007 GT3's recently for close to 100k and very near the original sticker. Granted these are manual cars etc and may hold nostalgia for some but the 991 is better in every single way. So I seriously doubt they will drop sharply. If anything, they should strengthen due to knowledge being out there about the engine replacement for top end issues.
10-18-2017, 11:01 PM
#11
Not sure if you have kept up on values, but 997.1/2's have come down a lot in the last 12-18 months. Couple .1 gt3's sitting in the classifieds for well under 100k, .2's can be had in the mid 90's to 100 all day long as well assuming we are talking about 20-40k miles and relatively stock.
10-19-2017, 06:14 AM
#12
No one cares except for the people on this board....I’ve had a .1GT3 and RS for almost 3 years now....ton of compliments on both....never has someone asked me how much I paid. Find one for a fair price and go enjoy it.....
10-19-2017, 08:11 AM
#14
I myself am in the market. Local dealer here had 4 .1 cars in their lot plus 2 RS. One of the cars have been at the dealership so much that it has had an additional 300 test miles since being traded in.
In my opinion, by January the market will soften a bit (winter break) especially in NorthEast and come next summer it will dip only to go up a bit a year or so later.
With all due respect to owners, this car will never hold its value as well as 997s, because there is nothing about it that is unique to it. Initially people used to say porsche will never release another 9000 rpm engine but they did even a better one. New car has PDK as well as better in every other way AND only costs marginally more.
.1s are going for 140k now are tough sell because in a year you can buy the new car for 10-15k more, obviously not fully optioned by you get the point. And they will be available because Porsche will make so many of them like they did with RS. Who in their right mind would get .1 to save $200/month? I know I wouldnt. If you are in the market for these cars, that $200/month is pocket change for you.
lastly, these cars are also different from 997s in a sense, because they are PDK, "some of them" were driven by a very different demographic of people who probably dont know/understand/care much about the engine. A lot of high mileage cars that were driven on highways and not really garage kept and taken care of. Scratches/scuffs all over the place, 4 owner cars under 6000 miles, etc. hardly collectables.
In my opinion, by January the market will soften a bit (winter break) especially in NorthEast and come next summer it will dip only to go up a bit a year or so later.
With all due respect to owners, this car will never hold its value as well as 997s, because there is nothing about it that is unique to it. Initially people used to say porsche will never release another 9000 rpm engine but they did even a better one. New car has PDK as well as better in every other way AND only costs marginally more.
.1s are going for 140k now are tough sell because in a year you can buy the new car for 10-15k more, obviously not fully optioned by you get the point. And they will be available because Porsche will make so many of them like they did with RS. Who in their right mind would get .1 to save $200/month? I know I wouldnt. If you are in the market for these cars, that $200/month is pocket change for you.
lastly, these cars are also different from 997s in a sense, because they are PDK, "some of them" were driven by a very different demographic of people who probably dont know/understand/care much about the engine. A lot of high mileage cars that were driven on highways and not really garage kept and taken care of. Scratches/scuffs all over the place, 4 owner cars under 6000 miles, etc. hardly collectables.
10-19-2017, 08:39 AM
#15
Burning Brakes
Everyone predicted RSs would drop below MSRP months ago. While they are settling closer to MSRP they have not plunged. The .2 is appreciably more expensive than the .1 and there still is not wide availability. I think this speaks favorably for .1 values. If the flood gates open in late 18 or 19 then .1s will suffer a biit, but you also have a much wider audience for a GT3 these days so more cars will be sold. I cannot imagine prices below $100K anytime soon. At that point its a no-brainer track machine, especially with the 10 year engine warranty. I wonder if all of the positive press on the .2 will give the .1 some lift over time.