rickyn f355

instead of worrying about selling things before they go down you are better served keeping some cash so that when things to go down you can put money to work - never selling, buy when things are down, and don't realize taxes is the way to compound money

nuvolari612

Little rough.

Reading posts a lot of guys use cars as an investment strategy - fact is no one needs a CGT.

When a specific market is manipulated the deep pockets / long term will profit.

Get a kick out of watching Marshall Goldman manipulate specific models thinking they are Goldman Sachs.

CGT000

+1

wtdoom

WHAT DO YOU MEAN NO ONE NEEDS A CGT ?

richk

^that's one of the best posts of the year...I've never been in a car that moved me like a CGT.

smokeygt

Foolish or not, sometimes life throws us some curves such as divorce, lost job, fire, flood, illness, etc. and we have no choice but to sell something. Hopefully we have other things to hold us over, but maybe not and we need to sell baby. There can be times when all of us would gladly surrender all of our possessions if it would help.

br911

Let me try. Markets don't wait for CB's to tighten monetary policy - everybody is talking about it, and in fact, (forward) rates already embed a high probability that interest rates will raise (across the developed world, and, in the case of US, chances, as per forward rates, are that before year end). So in fact, interest rates have already risen, not much, but have been there for a while (albeit not the Fed funds or equivalents around the world) at least compared to some months ago. But short term interest rates don't really matter much as proxies for the cost of money for a medium/long term investment. We have not seen those car prices soften, so my take is that, unless rates rise abruptly (that is above market expectations), there should be no to little impact to collector car prices (also, if rates rise more than expected, it should be because the economy is overheating, which produces a perceived income effect that would somehow offset the higher costs of keeping such a car in the stable). I think the worst that can happen is if there is another crisis (there will be, I just don't know when or what kind of), interest rates are still high, which is usually the case in a high market cycle, and there is a perceived notion that income has gone down abruptly (for example, you real estate and equities holdings are well below what you expected, and you might have to see to fill some gaps, or because you think prices will go down even more). So unless there is an increase in risk aversion, typical in systemic market downfalls, I think those cars cars will be fine. One does not need to sell to invest in higher yielding bonds, but if there are better yields around, the demand for those cars might be reduced, perhaps just enough to decelerate their increase, as we saw in the recent past.

Obviously, part of the return that one expects to have with those cars is associated to a premium to (lack of) liquidity. There is no transparent pricing in this market, and those with better information/vision can alway turn a profit. And enjoy as well... By the way, the same effect is being observed in the arts market, so I agree that collector cars are becoming like art.

nuvolari612

Cars have become art - what were those F1 engineers thinking by not installing picture hangers on the CGT have plenty of wall space. Kidding aside art is completely different there is no gov't registration.

NYC123

There are a multiltude of reasons you can say vintage cars are similar to art, modern semi modern cars I think it is much harder to make the same argument.

cgt04115

Some collectors have zero interest in registering their most collectible cars. They sit, and no one knows where.

dasams

The value of collectibles correlates well with stock market valuations. When the next recession hits, CGTs and other high value cars will trade at prices that are lower than today's value. Of that I'm certain. But there's no way to know whether the drop will be sufficient to call today's market a bubble. Dave

-eztrader-

Key points to think about / remember -

a. The S&P traded in the 600's in early 2009. It closed today at 2,046.
b. Interest rates / mortgage rates ,etc.... all time lows for an extended period of time
c. Everyone is a genius in a bull market
d. Bull markets do not last forever - fear / correction / change / possible market crash will happen again

I can't tell you how many calls I got in 08/09 of people puking assets to cover financial responsibilities. Everything was for sale - homes, cars, planes, boats, watch collections, wine, ...etc....

This will happen again- is just a matter of time and severity.

golfnutintib

Cash is king. Especially when the world is deathly afraid and most people don't have any.

Balance sheet management matters (for people and for companies) much more than income statements when the financial world is in maximum stress.

nuvolari612

I own vintage cars and vintage art - don't see any comparison but that's just me.

mooty

higher rate causes psychological panic ( maybe panic is not the right word...) regardless what your net worth is.

this "worry" in general mkt (again regradless of your net worth), maybe cause stagnant prices, slow the climb, but not necessarily cause price to fall in the the cars you mentioned.

finally rate while may affect pricing..
pricing doesn't necessarily influence current owners to sell, unless you are talking about insane prices that's not related to rate or any economic logic.

i know three friends with delivery mile 4.0, CGT and 2rs. no rate increase will affect them to sell. both turned down 1.5MM on CGT. but one did mention at 10MM he will let it go. so not rate related but price related when price is truly insane