dfwporsche

I am very interested in these cars so I started a nationwide search, created a spreadsheet of every car for sale (and those which have sold) and started doing some analysis. Yes - I have issues. Please feel free to add to this calculator as you have factual data to supply. Hoping this helps others (like me) make good buying decisions.

This probably isnt shocking but it appears the following have the biggest impact on value:
1. Mileage (far and away)
2. Year (2004 cars are worth less)
3. Maintenance history and recent clutch
4. Color (to a lesser degree)

I have about 30 cars in this database so far. If anyone is willing to PM me values for what they paid we can make this more accurate.

The best I can tell - the calculator goes like this:
-Start at $400k for a zero mile 2005 car.
-Subtract $10 for every mile
-Subtract $25k for a 2004
-If you dont have a recent clutch or excellent MNT history subtract $25k
- Rare color (anything other than silver) not sure yet

***This obviously assumes clean carfax, no paintwork etc.

I went through most every post on Rennlist and others. Found a number of documented sales all which fit the model pretty well. Some were a couple years ago and it appears prices have been pretty stable (other than 2009).

Here is an example from a year ago which is the highest mileage actual sale I could find. Its close but not perfect when miles get that high. My guess is miles start costing less as you get over 10k:

One example: 2005, silver, clutch, 19k miles sold for $225k (model says $210k)

If anyone has data to refute this model either PM me or post it up. This is just a start and I'm sure the end will be valuable to those looking for a car.

dfwporsche

It also appears where the car is sold has an impact (not shocking). Sold by a Porsche dealer commands the highest price. Any other dealer second. Private sale last.

utahrock

Interesting - thanks for doing the work. But damn! Driving one to work would cost me $400. Makes a Ferrari seem like a bargain.

Someone on ferrarichat did the same kind of calculator for F430's and it's been pretty accurate. For those, it's $2/mile up to 10K, then $1/mile after that. So maybe the CGT drops to $5/mile after 10K. Also for color on an F430, it's something like: Add $10k for metallic gray or white and subtract $10K for yellow or black. For me on a CGT, while I like silver, it's a little plain, and I probably don't want a black car, so I'd be willing to add maybe $20K for red, yellow, the rare white or possibly grey.

dfwporsche

Yea - F430GT created a calculator on Fchat for the Scuderia. I used it to buy mine and modeled this one the same way. It essentially says if you buy a 430 Scuderia properly the only depreciation is mileage ($2 per mile under 10k and $1 per mile over). That calculator holds up true today.

I was shocked to see the CGT costs $10 per mile while the Scuderia costs $2.

LastMezger

Interesting. I'm certainly not an expert in this kind of thing but I think you'll need some kind of algorithm to adjust mileage depreciation over time.

What I'm thinking is that in 40 years will mileage be as big a factor as condition, provenance, documentation, etc...? Nobody asks about the mileage on a Ferrari 250GTO (naturally I know it's not the same thing).

Does this make sense?

dfwporsche

I agree. Where this goes in the future is anyone's guess. I created this to understand the market today. As a potential owner I hope this model improved significantly.

nycartdealer

well if its of any interest I paid 385k five months ago for a silver/black with 600 miles

dfwporsche

Sounds like the right price based on what I have seen. How do you like it?

nycartdealer

LOVE it. Its an edgy exciting car to drive.

enthusiast

Interesting.

I don't understand the gap in value between the 2004 and 2005 model years.

Consider a 2004 made in July 2004 versus a 2005 made in September 2004, everything else being comparable should have the same value, right?

W8MM

IIRC, MY2005 started 1Jan2005.

My paint-to-sample order couldn't be processed before the starrt of MY2005 and it was made in the first few days of 2005. Delivered 19Feb2005.

MidnightCayman

Even in NYC traffic? How has it been driving in the city?

enthusiast

Thanks for the correction. I made an assumption that they started production again after the typical summer break but I was wrong.

LastMezger

I see. Makes sense.

nycartdealer

Never driven it in NYC traffic but I can tell you that it would not be pleasant. I have done midnight runs through the city and that was very exciting and lots of fun. The car stays in my garage out at my Long Island house during the summer and winters it is in Florida