Pricing analysis of a narrow slice of the 997TT market (997.1 Cab's)
01-17-2017, 01:17 AM
#1
Pricing analysis of a narrow slice of the 997TT market (997.1 Cab's)
Hi Guys,
Recently there was a thread about cost of a 997 turbo vs. year, however within that thread people posted that there was no differentiation for transmission, mileage or body style. During my own car search, I collected some data that helps address those subtleties and I thought the forum would find it interesting. It's an incredible narrow slice of the TT market so there is a bit of reading signal in the noise, but there are some take always that likely could extend into coupes or 997.2's.
For most of the last year (April-Dec), I tracked every 997.1 cabriolet that came on the online market. Each morning (and evening - it became a fun obsession), I'd cycle through autotrader.com, porsche.com, cargurus.com, and cars.com and record the details of every new car listed (color, mileage, transmission, cost, location, # of previous owners, southern/northern state, dealer, and the standard important options). If a car was sold (and thus disappeared from sites), I'd followup with the dealer and try to get out of them the actual sale price. For the most part, there was no conclusions that flew against the guidelines thrown out in these threads, but its interesting to see how the numbers break down. Clearly with larger samples sizes, the option/build specs get averaged out, but as I start to cut the data specifically, the differences between heavily spec'd cars and stripper builds skew the data.
During this time period, seventy (70) 997.1 cab's were listed online. Looking only at averages:
2008 (Tip) - average price: $72k, average mileage: 29k (n=26)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $75k, average mileage: 30k (n=22)
2009 (Tip) - average price: $74k, average mileage: 36k (n=14)
2009 (6MT) - average price: $84k, average mileage: 30k (n=8)
That wasn't as interesting as I thought (and not the results I expected), but the data gets pretty heavily skewed by a number of low mileage '08 Tip's that greatly increased that average (as the depreciation of high mileage doesn't outweigh the premium for low mileage).
So only looking at "garage queens" (which I defined as cars with less than 20k mileage)
2008 (Tip) - average price: $81k, average mileage: 16k (n=4)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $83k, average mileage: 14k (n=3)
2009 (Tip) - average price: $86k, average mileage: 16k (n=3)
The general conclusion I found here is with low mileage examples, people really dictate the price as there is so little competition. Market forces are not enough to cover the uniqueness of each build combined with rarity.
The highest turnover region for 997.1's are cars that are in the sweet spot of 65-75k and/or 30-50k mileage. I'm guessing people who are trying to maximize Porsche for dollar end up looking in one of those two ranges. (This was exactly me).
In this range, what are you paying to get a 6MT? Cutting the data by prices only shows the cost in regards to the mileage you can get (as the price averages out in the range). Specifically, with about the same priced car, a manual transmission "costs" 10k extra mileage:
Cars in the 65-75k price point (not enough 2009 data):
2008 (Tip) - average price: $72k, average mileage: 23k (n=10)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $71k, average mileage: 34k (n=12)
If instead mileage is isolated to see a cost trend, the data showed what is the general consensus for 997.1's (although poor sample sizes). We see the manual transmission adding 10k, and the 2008-2009 jump adding another price bump:
Cars in the 30-50k mileage range:
2008 (Tip) - average price: $63k, average mileage: 39k (n=4)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $72k, average mileage: 39k (n=6)
2009 (Tip) - average price: $71k, average mileage: 41k (n=5)
2009 (6MT) - average price: $84k, average mileage: 37k (n=4)
It actually wasn't an incredible amount of work to track all of this; once you did it initially, the upkeep was pretty easy and fun. And i'd highly recommend it, you very quickly get a great feel for the market and know the good deals when you see it.
Three other observations that might ring true:
1) The majority of the above data is "listed price" which I know is different than asking price. For the 15 cars sold during this time period that I was able to get sale data on, generally the discount was 3-4% of list price.
2) This is definitely said often, but the good cars go quick. We're talking less than 24 hours for great deals and less than 5 days for good deals. Otherwise the car will sit for a long time.
3) For any car you find, if you're not paying for carfaxes and it's not on the current listing, google the VIN. Usually you'll find previous listings for the car which sometimes have a carfax listed or at least can help you figure out if it's a northern/southern car, how many previous owners and how much mileage was put on by each owner.
Recently there was a thread about cost of a 997 turbo vs. year, however within that thread people posted that there was no differentiation for transmission, mileage or body style. During my own car search, I collected some data that helps address those subtleties and I thought the forum would find it interesting. It's an incredible narrow slice of the TT market so there is a bit of reading signal in the noise, but there are some take always that likely could extend into coupes or 997.2's.
For most of the last year (April-Dec), I tracked every 997.1 cabriolet that came on the online market. Each morning (and evening - it became a fun obsession), I'd cycle through autotrader.com, porsche.com, cargurus.com, and cars.com and record the details of every new car listed (color, mileage, transmission, cost, location, # of previous owners, southern/northern state, dealer, and the standard important options). If a car was sold (and thus disappeared from sites), I'd followup with the dealer and try to get out of them the actual sale price. For the most part, there was no conclusions that flew against the guidelines thrown out in these threads, but its interesting to see how the numbers break down. Clearly with larger samples sizes, the option/build specs get averaged out, but as I start to cut the data specifically, the differences between heavily spec'd cars and stripper builds skew the data.
During this time period, seventy (70) 997.1 cab's were listed online. Looking only at averages:
2008 (Tip) - average price: $72k, average mileage: 29k (n=26)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $75k, average mileage: 30k (n=22)
2009 (Tip) - average price: $74k, average mileage: 36k (n=14)
2009 (6MT) - average price: $84k, average mileage: 30k (n=8)
That wasn't as interesting as I thought (and not the results I expected), but the data gets pretty heavily skewed by a number of low mileage '08 Tip's that greatly increased that average (as the depreciation of high mileage doesn't outweigh the premium for low mileage).
So only looking at "garage queens" (which I defined as cars with less than 20k mileage)
2008 (Tip) - average price: $81k, average mileage: 16k (n=4)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $83k, average mileage: 14k (n=3)
2009 (Tip) - average price: $86k, average mileage: 16k (n=3)
The general conclusion I found here is with low mileage examples, people really dictate the price as there is so little competition. Market forces are not enough to cover the uniqueness of each build combined with rarity.
The highest turnover region for 997.1's are cars that are in the sweet spot of 65-75k and/or 30-50k mileage. I'm guessing people who are trying to maximize Porsche for dollar end up looking in one of those two ranges. (This was exactly me).
In this range, what are you paying to get a 6MT? Cutting the data by prices only shows the cost in regards to the mileage you can get (as the price averages out in the range). Specifically, with about the same priced car, a manual transmission "costs" 10k extra mileage:
Cars in the 65-75k price point (not enough 2009 data):
2008 (Tip) - average price: $72k, average mileage: 23k (n=10)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $71k, average mileage: 34k (n=12)
If instead mileage is isolated to see a cost trend, the data showed what is the general consensus for 997.1's (although poor sample sizes). We see the manual transmission adding 10k, and the 2008-2009 jump adding another price bump:
Cars in the 30-50k mileage range:
2008 (Tip) - average price: $63k, average mileage: 39k (n=4)
2008 (6MT) - average price: $72k, average mileage: 39k (n=6)
2009 (Tip) - average price: $71k, average mileage: 41k (n=5)
2009 (6MT) - average price: $84k, average mileage: 37k (n=4)
It actually wasn't an incredible amount of work to track all of this; once you did it initially, the upkeep was pretty easy and fun. And i'd highly recommend it, you very quickly get a great feel for the market and know the good deals when you see it.
Three other observations that might ring true:
1) The majority of the above data is "listed price" which I know is different than asking price. For the 15 cars sold during this time period that I was able to get sale data on, generally the discount was 3-4% of list price.
2) This is definitely said often, but the good cars go quick. We're talking less than 24 hours for great deals and less than 5 days for good deals. Otherwise the car will sit for a long time.
3) For any car you find, if you're not paying for carfaxes and it's not on the current listing, google the VIN. Usually you'll find previous listings for the car which sometimes have a carfax listed or at least can help you figure out if it's a northern/southern car, how many previous owners and how much mileage was put on by each owner.
01-17-2017, 11:57 AM
#4
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Thanks for the work and sharing it. I feel the manual coupes would have more of a premium over the manual Cabs. Just thinking the purists would want manual coupe the most. Cab drivers might be more ok with TIP?
01-17-2017, 06:14 PM
#5
Interesting analysis and I think you are very close to the price point, my car has multiple offers at $80k but I turned it down. I would be happy at $83k to $85k, otherwise it stay with me for a while more once my house renovation complete.
997.1TT, MT with 12k miles.
997.1TT, MT with 12k miles.
01-18-2017, 07:12 AM
#7
Rennlist Member
Coupe owners often seem to assume there's a coupe premium, or that cab buyers won't care about MT vs tip, but are either of those actually true? Personally I love driving top-down, and there's no way I would have bought a tip. I also haven't personally seen evidence of a premium for coupes over cabs. (In fact when I was looking I saw a bit of the opposite, but I didn't look too closely at coupes, so that may not actually be the case.)
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01-18-2017, 10:03 AM
#8
I tend to agree with Nate, but there seems to be way less MT Cabs out there than coupes for whatever reason. I'm an old guy, so MT's are the only choice for me!
Everybody fancies themselves race car drivers, so the price of coupes go up even though the CABS cost more originally. Wait 30 years and that changes in favor of the Cabs.
I like my sports cars with tops that drop.
Everybody fancies themselves race car drivers, so the price of coupes go up even though the CABS cost more originally. Wait 30 years and that changes in favor of the Cabs.
I like my sports cars with tops that drop.
01-18-2017, 03:42 PM
#9
Three Wheelin'
Very interesting, thank you for your work and analysis. As an 09 cab 6MT owner with a rarer color combination and 24k miles I would be at $89.5 if I was selling.
01-18-2017, 05:40 PM
#11
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I wanted the enthusiasts coupe and mt and ended up with pdk cab and love it. These are really amazing multi purpose machines, track, drag, crusing in luxury, drop top in the sun, etc.
01-18-2017, 06:15 PM
#12
Source: http://concoursbyappointment.com/200...north-america/
01-20-2017, 03:24 PM
#13
01-20-2017, 06:12 PM
#14
Rennlist Member
Good time to be Canadian I guess. Just bought an 09 MT cab with 74k km (about 46k miles) and spotless history for 87k CAD - about $65k USD. Looks like as the CAD has dropped, prices have only marginally moved with it. You pay a bit more now than when the dollar was at parity with USD, but certainly not 1/4 more.
In fact, like many/most 997's up here, it was originally a US car too, which I believe saves you paying import fees and/or taxes when importing it back into the states. Anyone in the market now might want to look north of the border.
In fact, like many/most 997's up here, it was originally a US car too, which I believe saves you paying import fees and/or taxes when importing it back into the states. Anyone in the market now might want to look north of the border.
01-22-2017, 11:49 AM
#15
Three Wheelin'