993 Turbo: 2016 update
08-05-2016, 12:29 AM
#1
8th Gear
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993 Turbo: 2016 update
Just trying to open the dialogue. These forums have been quiet lately. I miss the pre-2012 days!
Anyway, I pulled these up from the most recent Hagerty Valuation Report (averaged the "good" and "excellent" vehicles )
May 2013 $81,200
September 2013 $92,500
January 2014 $103,750
May 2014 $112,850
September 2014 $127,500
January 2015 $150,500
May 2015 $163,500
September 2015 $163,500
January 2016 $163,500
May 2016 $177,000
Assuming one can get a 30k garage queen for $140-160k or 60k driver for $120-140k all day long, what kind of ceiling are we expecting ? Are we at, or approaching a market correction of say 10%?
Also, what kind of values can one expect if there was a world/us economic collapse in the next few years? Just speculation for ****s and giggles, as I wouldn't hope for one as my retirement vehicle, home value, and business would suffer.
For a 30k mile garage queen, would you see if drop down to pre 2012 years ($80k) or closer to 2014 ($120k)?
Anyway, I pulled these up from the most recent Hagerty Valuation Report (averaged the "good" and "excellent" vehicles )
May 2013 $81,200
September 2013 $92,500
January 2014 $103,750
May 2014 $112,850
September 2014 $127,500
January 2015 $150,500
May 2015 $163,500
September 2015 $163,500
January 2016 $163,500
May 2016 $177,000
Assuming one can get a 30k garage queen for $140-160k or 60k driver for $120-140k all day long, what kind of ceiling are we expecting ? Are we at, or approaching a market correction of say 10%?
Also, what kind of values can one expect if there was a world/us economic collapse in the next few years? Just speculation for ****s and giggles, as I wouldn't hope for one as my retirement vehicle, home value, and business would suffer.
For a 30k mile garage queen, would you see if drop down to pre 2012 years ($80k) or closer to 2014 ($120k)?
08-05-2016, 01:39 AM
#2
http://www.barrett-jackson.com/Event...N-TURBO-194404 I recall a few members chipped in on another thread. They are still hovering $140,000 PLUS I don't believe we are going to have an massive market adjustment like '89 Ferrari post Enzo.
08-06-2016, 07:34 PM
#4
Race Car
Yes but is there a valuation thread? I think we can expect a fallback when interest rates go up because "investors" will bail. Last time I looked there were around 40 on cars.com so they are hardly in short supply.
08-07-2016, 05:05 AM
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Thanks for chipping in Ronnie. I'm no economist. Can you explain why federal interest rates increasing will result in price fallback? Will we ever see a 30,000 milers go for $120,000 ever?
08-08-2016, 12:35 PM
#7
Race Car
Actually, the Japanese situation is partly due to decades of low interest rates held down by boosting money supply. Low rates penalize investors and result in the various asset price balloons - fueled by speculators- we have been experiencing in developed countries. Very low rates are damaging over time as resources are misallocated, particularly since they are not stimulating GDP growth nor employment. The longer interest rates are held down, the harder it is to move them up without creating short term turmoil. When rates move up, speculators move out of hard assets into financial assets with a more reliable/predictable return. No idea how low 993tt's will go. There's lots of them but they are becoming more desirable as time passes.
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08-09-2016, 09:31 PM
#8
Ronnie, I'm with you about that
I'm trying to predict what will happens on the monetary field in the short-medium term, I'm asking myself how could the EZB (European Central Bank) raise interest when many Country like Italy ecc....... has so much debt and are in a recession or flat economy at best
as long the EZB keep interest so low and put so much money on the table, we will not have any crash on AC Porsche, Stocks, or Gold Market
and so long the EZB play this kind of policy, the Federal Bank is not in the position to change the rules or the dollar will explode vs Euro and Yen causing very hard times for big US Company (IHMO)
the challenge is to come close to the time when...............
I'm trying to predict what will happens on the monetary field in the short-medium term, I'm asking myself how could the EZB (European Central Bank) raise interest when many Country like Italy ecc....... has so much debt and are in a recession or flat economy at best
as long the EZB keep interest so low and put so much money on the table, we will not have any crash on AC Porsche, Stocks, or Gold Market
and so long the EZB play this kind of policy, the Federal Bank is not in the position to change the rules or the dollar will explode vs Euro and Yen causing very hard times for big US Company (IHMO)
the challenge is to come close to the time when...............
08-10-2016, 11:58 AM
#9
Race Car
Yup, that's pretty much right on. Until the US economy picks up higher rates would definitely push the US$ up. However, as I recall, only 15% of the US economy is exports so the main impact would be higher import prices and I'm not sure the Fed will care AFTER the election.
08-12-2016, 03:36 PM
#10
I believe these cars are more accepted in the car collecting world then ever before.
One other point I find interesting is that a slightly older generation favored US muscle cars once they came into disposable money, say, after their kids graduated college... Those cars were cool when they were younger.
I believe the current generation coming into disposable money favor cars like 993 or Ferrari, etc... Primarily because when you look at cars that were around when they were young--which ones were cool? A 1996 mustang? I don't think so. A 1996 P? Absolutely. 993 prices might fluctuate, but firmly believe they will have bidders lurking until the next generation comes into disposable income--and doesn't know how to drive manual transmission.
One other point I find interesting is that a slightly older generation favored US muscle cars once they came into disposable money, say, after their kids graduated college... Those cars were cool when they were younger.
I believe the current generation coming into disposable money favor cars like 993 or Ferrari, etc... Primarily because when you look at cars that were around when they were young--which ones were cool? A 1996 mustang? I don't think so. A 1996 P? Absolutely. 993 prices might fluctuate, but firmly believe they will have bidders lurking until the next generation comes into disposable income--and doesn't know how to drive manual transmission.
08-12-2016, 07:32 PM
#11
I believe these cars are more accepted in the car collecting world then ever before. One other point I find interesting is that a slightly older generation favored US muscle cars once they came into disposable money, say, after their kids graduated college... Those cars were cool when they were younger. I believe the current generation coming into disposable money favor cars like 993 or Ferrari, etc... Primarily because when you look at cars that were around when they were young--which ones were cool? A 1996 mustang? I don't think so. A 1996 P? Absolutely. 993 prices might fluctuate, but firmly believe they will have bidders lurking until the next generation comes into disposable income--and doesn't know how to drive manual transmission.
08-13-2016, 03:36 PM
#12
Race Car
When I was young the Shelby Cobra, E Type Jag and C2 Vettes were the coolest cars! They still are but I don't want one......well maybe a '63 split window. The thing that's changed is most of todays' young (under 45) car buyers want modern new cars and even more worrisome - most don't do manual.