Maybe the most asked question(s) on this forum; "is this a good price?" or "what should I pay?" The way I see it, valuing a 991 (or any modern day used car) shouldn't be any more involved than using similar metrics to those employed by Porsche Financial in setting lease residuals for different points in time (i.e., 12mo., 24mo., 36mo., 48mo., 60mo.). If the car's VIN#, starting price (MSRP) and current mileage are known then one should be able to get close to determining what the car is worth. Of course, there will always be variables that might affect demand (i.e., CPO, paint color, wheels, exhaust, etc.) but for the most part using the same residual value/mileage combo that PFS uses should get one close to determining what the fair price for a used 991 is.

So, what is needed?
-the car's MSRP (use the Porsche build sheet decoder below)
-the car's mileage

Porsche Build Sheet using the car's VIN# (place the VIN# immediately after the = sign)....copy and paste it into your search engine)
https://admin.porschedealer.com/repo...print.php?vin=

(will return to you the MSRP plus options)

At this point the year, msrp, asking price, mileage (and options) should be known.

Quick aside: remember that an "asking/offered price" is typically inflated at the dealer level by at least 5% and as much as 22% to help them cover the costs of readying the car for sale (marketing, tires, etc.) and to provide a profit. This is the amount that the buyer can negotiate on (helping to reduce the "bid/ask"). Asking prices mean very little to me because at the end, it really only matters what the buyer is willing to pay. The dealers gain their leverage from providing an easy point of sale transaction (ability to finance on the spot) along with the sense of comfort/security that one receives from buying said car at a Porsche dealership as opposed to a private party transaction that can sometimes be less "easy." That's why private party transactions are usually "less expensive" as a lot more trust and possibly work is required.

Ok. On with the pricing exercise. Here is a nifty residual table that can be used to help determine an approximate value for the car in question. And yes, residuals can and will change from year to year, but these seem close enough to what is used today (i believe the residuals shown below to be for 15k mi/yr contracts). It's pretty self explanatory; start with a $127k car in year 0 and after 12mo that car's value will have dropped by about 20% (about $25k lost, car's worth after 1yr = $101,600). Year two? The residual is determined by applying the depreciation of the second year to the value of the car AFTER year one (1). 3rd year? You take the value of the car after year two (2) and apply the depreciation to that figure. Here's the catch*. To obtain even better price data, one will want to add monies back (not a small sum given the relatively large numbers we're working with) for lesser mile cars. That's why lease payments become much, much less if the mile allowance is kept to 5k mi./yr. as opposed to 15k mi./yr. That difference? It can be as much as 5% per annum.



or said another way: 1yr = 20% depreciation, 2yr = 31%, 3yr = 38%, 4yr = 42%, 5yr = 46%, 6yr = 50%......then subtract from those numbers the premium (5%, 4%, 3%) for miles less than 15k/yr.

*(taken from blschaefer1's post below) The above residuals are for 15k miles/year. You add 5% to all residuals (values) for 5k miles/year.

You add 4% for 7,500 miles/year, 3% for 10k miles/year, and 2% for 12k miles/year.

Or said another way, subtracting 5% from the 20% depreciation for a 5k mi/yr car after 12mo equates to a 15% depreciation figure, and which amounts to about $6k in lesser depreciation/higher residual in the example above (15% of 127k = $19k, 20% of 127k = $25k in depreciation).

That's pretty much it. We can improve and subtract where need be, but I think this will serve as a good starting point to help others better determine what the fair price is of the car they're either contemplating to buy or sell. Perhaps folks can add updated money factor (right now about .002), residual tables, their own contractual data to help solidify the pricing data. There are other lease/residual threads out there, but i was hoping to aggregate the information into one thread, but more importantly, to help others who have less experience in trying to determine what the "right price" or "good price" of the car in question is.


Bonus (Lease Calculator):

Interested in knowing what the monthly payment for a lease might look like? Use the lease calculator below. You can change the variables/scenarios to have a better understanding how each affect the monthly payment.

http://www.ridewithg.com/calculator/index.html

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2018 lease rates and residuals below......will populate as i have time and find the necessary data

991.2 Carrera

36 mo, 5,000 miles, 64.5%
36 mo, 7,500 miles, 63%
36 mo, 10,000 miles, 61%

(5k mile lease is worth about 3.5%-4% in terms of depreciation over that of a 10k mile lease)

money factor around .0022 for tier 1 (5.2%), .003 (7.2%) and higher for tier 2