oalvarez

Hi hi....then please somehow add to it. Remember, it's not my formula per se, but rather expressions taken from this forum. I'm not trying to create a calculator but rather to point light to what it is that PFS themselves use and how closely those values are to what wholesale/retail values may be.

KBB doesn't do a great job. Autotrader, CarGuru, Truvalue, Hemmings, dealer inventories all the better. Let's try to get people to use the info that's out there (and in this thread) as opposed to being spoon fed the information. There is no definitive answer but folks can at least get close. The info is out there.

Want to know the wholesale value of your car? Call the local delaler, purport to be a buyer of one of their cars on the floor, tell them you have a trade in and have them ballpark it's value and then add in some sort of "profit" to that number. Just another approach that can be used.

blschaefer1

I'd say Porsche leases on 911's are subsidized by approx 10%.

911seeker

I think you are adding back 8% for low mileage and it should only be 4% (i.e. not multiplied by the number of years). Otherwise it doesn't seem to make sense, how does it work for leases?

oalvarez

That is correct. I believe that to be the case.

oalvarez

No, just 4% for the lesser mileage (not 4% per each year of the lease). So .7 x $128k = $89,600.

oalvarez

Not disagreeing with you but trying to keep this simple. I have a leased 2016 Porsche (contract written this year). What I do know is that there is a msrp and a residual listed on it, but not a line item called subsidy. When my lease is up, the car's actual value will be less, the same, or more than the market value at that time.....again, residuals are best guesses by someone at PFS and I think they come pretty close to be right than wrong.

blschaefer1

In each of my experiences with PFS leases, market value was less than the residual at lease end. PFS and Porsche USA knows this and it's all part of the plan to get current lessees into new cars and seed the CPO market.

Just my opinion - I think if you lowered the base residuals in your calculations by ~5%, the results would be more accurate.

KOTYKB

Oalvarez, I was the one who put the depreciation data together that you utilized on your OP. I created this back in December before the 991.2 was released and things might have changed since them with what seems like the 991.1 are in slightly higher demand. Also 911's are in less demand in the December timeframe compared to now where we have spring fever.

oalvarez

remember, those aren't "my calculations" but residuals offered by some other RL'er from (market) data obtained at some point in time. either way (5% or not) i think it gets someone in the ballpark of what they're wanting to know. is 5% substantial when dealing with larger numbers? absolutely.

oalvarez

yep yep and thanks again for having brought that table back of late. i find it helpful. and as i said in the beginning, the whole idea here is for folks to supply their own findings (today) so to have an even better idea of what used prices might be, or should be.

i have to go back and look at my own 2yr, 7.5mi/yr contract but i think the residual is close to 30%.

if folks could please opine/forward information on their own contracts that would be swell. having said that, i don't think they're all that much different, maybe they are.

Austin-Guy

Sound like I did ok.. Either way I'm happy with the outcome..

911seeker

I think, comparing with other recent deals seen in this forum, that low to mid eighties would be the right price for your car, CPO included, so yes, you should be fine

Speedster91

Hey,

MSRP 120,500 (Canadian) + options for a total of 133,880.

about 7000 miles


It's listed at 123,995, not including taxes and licensing. Doesn't look like it has CPO.

say we give 6 % back for a low mileage car,

so that's about 34-6% depreciation or 133,880 x 72% = 96,400.

Even if the dealer wanted to make a 5% profit it would be 133,880 x 77% = 103,000

So is that a terrible deal?

http://www.autotrader.ca/a/Porsche/9...o/5_24066892_/

oalvarez

Hiyas, Speedster.....the link provided isn't working for me, it appears as though the listing may have been removed. Regardless, if it was a 2015 car with 7k miles then depreciation would be in the 15% vicinity suggesting a price of $112.5k (20% typical, but add back 4% for lesser mileage, 16% depreciation from the $133.8 msrp). If it's a 2014 car, then the depreciation would be around 30% (34% - 4% mileage - 30%) and the suggested price would be closer to $93.7. That's how i see it based on what you've provided. What year is the car? Regardless, if a 2014 then the asking price seems quite high.

Thanks,

Leverageconsult

I'm officially confused. Lol. I purchased last April 2015 an 14 911 C2S with 5900 miles. 131k msrp for $89k. At that time it was selling more at Manheim. I estimated a loss of 7-8k per year. So what can I expect it to be worth now and in two years. I drive 6-7k per year.