bronson7

Wow, just home from work, enjoying a fine wine and now reading this thread. Take it easy boys, we're all here for the same reason....the love of these special cars. Relax and be thankful we can even think, let alone own these luxury items. Carry on.

Just in time

Economists have one particular term for something that will ultimately decide where the prices of halo cars wind up. They call it the Wealth Effect. Currently we are taking a major hit in the stock market, one of the big contributors to the wealth effect. If the free fall of the stock market continues we should expect GT3/RS premiums to disappear fairly quickly. There is a difference between buyers that have good income/credit vs those that simply sit on capital. A negative move usually results in reduced consumption and the concomitant effects that reduced consumption brings. I could be wrong but if this continues Bye bye premiums.

mrsullivan

so much misinformation in this thread, so little time to correct...

market value = what something is sold for, not offered. Agree that asking pricing can be delusional, etc. And that DEMAND is indicated by the bid amounts. But not market value. That is the point where a transaction occurs and a market clears.

secondly, big assumptions in this thread about how buyers will be impacted by the market. really? someone that is going to spend $250-350k on a car is on the edge enough that the market falling for a bit means they cant buy it? my lord, lets hope not. If you are that dependent on the market for your income/wealth etc., then you probably have no business buying one of these cars (finger wagging intended)...

rosenbergendo

Prices seem to be retreating. Lots of cars not selling for 60-75k over. Let's see how long this lasts.

usctrojanGT3

If a stock market correction results in decreased demand for luxury items like $10k-$100k watches (via larger discounts) it will surely it will effect $200k+ cars.

mrsullivan

I guess I live in a naïve lala land where people that feel they can afford $250k+ cars don't have to pull the plug if the market declines temporarily. $10k watches I could see because the buying cohort there is perhaps a bit more paycheck driven, etc. I certainly could be wrong. But would be surprised if RS demand/pricing is effected. That's not to say that the RS cars on the market aren't over priced. They may well be. Or demand for paying premiums may be going down. Im just gonna be surprised if its because of the market.

usctrojanGT3

What's your definition of temporarily? If the shoe drops with China, it won't be a week long correction with a V bottom. Oil trading in the low $30s is a big warning light.

997rs4.0

What an eventful afternoon on RL.

I doubt anyone spend their last dollar on a 991rs, however. When there is money to be made. People that buy RS with their brain instead of heart (check 997gt3 thread about bubble bursting) will exit the market when these cars are depreciating instead of appreciating. So IMO it does affect the value.

Seems like a lot of RListers are trying to defend their toy at the moment. It gets tiring! We can do better.

Anyone that believes that values are just going up and up and up are just naive.

mrsullivan

we can agree to disagree. I don't think many RS buyers do so with their brain. Heart more likely.

I don't even own an RS yet. But it does seem that there are some on this board that spend 9 out of 10 of their posts trying to convince current or future 991 RS owners that its an overpriced car. And that the sky is about to fall on prices. I think that gets equally tiring!

No one said prices are going up.

Just in time

Having been involved in the financial markets for many many years you would be surprised. Whenever people feel "wealthy" because their brokerage statements look fat, their house is gaining value, the 401-K looks flush, sales commissions, bonuses, etc, then they are more apt to go buy stuff that they really cannot really afford or really should not prudently get in. When the wealth feeling disappears the number of buyers suffers a significant contraction. No asset is really immune to reduction and maybe the only class that can continue going is the super wealthy where a drop of a few million here or there in market value will not deter them from moving forward. I wonder how GT3s/RS would have behaved if they had hit the showrooms at a time of loss in market value rather than at a time of bonanza as they did.

BTW FMV is defined as the amount at which a willing seller and a willing buyer close on a transaction when neither is under pressure to deal. This was my wheelhouse for over 30 years.

MS7044

I think it depends on whether one sees the current macro environment as indicative of a short/medium/long term trend. That's a personal subjective decision based on factors also personally chosen (but hopefully logically chosen). As someone who lives 275 days per year in China and has seen 2 panics occur here that had 8-18 month lives as they wound down I personally choose to pull back. Im still buying a GT4 in a few months (not 250k but enough) but will curtail other luxuries some until I get some transparency into what lies ahead. It's usually debt and the associate service there on that puts people and companies at peril as consumption can generally be managed to adjust to any reduced revenue. I see a lot of debt everywhere.

mrsullivan

my definition of temporary is a year or so
I know that we have some financial gurus on here. I am not one.
But even someone that bought a $250k RS on credit, is probably looking at a 2-3% type rate? Maybe $35-40k in payments for a 12 month period? You have to be living very on the edge to be effected enough to not be able to afford that if you bought the car to start?

audipwr1

Last market crash RSs dropped ~30% is all I know

All this talk about prices and value is irritating, 2 years ago never happened on these forums, 5 never happened. People used to talk about tracking, modifying, enjoying

It's a friggin car. We should make separate sub folder for those that want to talk about "value" of a car coming off the plant floor, makes zero sense

mrsullivan

that's the best idea i have heard in quite a while

Just in time

Agree!