Well, here is something to think about - the value of your car
04-06-2015, 09:44 PM
#1
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
Well, here is something to think about - the value of your car
Hi All,
Had a wonderful Easter which incorporated a six hour drive. During such drive, I passed quite a few different cars from all eras. Lots of Hot Rods, heaps of 50's & 60's cruisers and yes a couple of Porsches - but those were on trailers (race cars?).
I started wondering how much these cars are going to be worth when petrol (gas, oil) runs out. When it was my wife's turn to drive, I grabbed the iPad and started googling. To cut a long story and a heap of research short, the best scientific estimate is 2040 and the world will be run dry. Most scientific researchers talk about 'peak oil' and then exhaustion. This was a term coined back in the 1950's by Shell Oil when a well or mine would reach a point where it was now 'dribbling' from the drill. The USA reached this in the mid 1970's and had to go off shore and to other Countries. Whilst around the world, the predicted 'peak oil' varies. Either way, most consider 2040 to be pretty accurate as to when there will be no more oil for cars (or any other machinery).
So, I started thinking about the value of our (prestige) cars. I have had many, many Hot Rods over the years and sold my last one twenty years ago to help finance our house purchase. I spoke to one of my friends who still has a few Hot Rods and he is going to start unloading them (selling) this year. His reasoning is that he believes that they too have reached 'peak oil' and that the influx of 'American' cars in Australia has bottomed out the market. Some may say he is probably too late in this estimate.
What about the humble Porsche? Well, here is a simple question for you. If you could no longer drive it (due to no petrol/oil/gas) - would you still want it? In fact, for those of you out there saving for that rare model Porsche, or ever appreciating 911 or 993 - would you buy it knowing that the ability to drive it is finite? Given that 2040 is 25 years away, most of you are probably at the age where you couldn't care less !! However, i do think it makes for interesting discussion as if the above figures are correct, the humble prestige car might not be as valuable as we all think in say ten years time?
In essence these cars would then become just a large version of a 'die cast' collectable.
Had a wonderful Easter which incorporated a six hour drive. During such drive, I passed quite a few different cars from all eras. Lots of Hot Rods, heaps of 50's & 60's cruisers and yes a couple of Porsches - but those were on trailers (race cars?).
I started wondering how much these cars are going to be worth when petrol (gas, oil) runs out. When it was my wife's turn to drive, I grabbed the iPad and started googling. To cut a long story and a heap of research short, the best scientific estimate is 2040 and the world will be run dry. Most scientific researchers talk about 'peak oil' and then exhaustion. This was a term coined back in the 1950's by Shell Oil when a well or mine would reach a point where it was now 'dribbling' from the drill. The USA reached this in the mid 1970's and had to go off shore and to other Countries. Whilst around the world, the predicted 'peak oil' varies. Either way, most consider 2040 to be pretty accurate as to when there will be no more oil for cars (or any other machinery).
So, I started thinking about the value of our (prestige) cars. I have had many, many Hot Rods over the years and sold my last one twenty years ago to help finance our house purchase. I spoke to one of my friends who still has a few Hot Rods and he is going to start unloading them (selling) this year. His reasoning is that he believes that they too have reached 'peak oil' and that the influx of 'American' cars in Australia has bottomed out the market. Some may say he is probably too late in this estimate.
What about the humble Porsche? Well, here is a simple question for you. If you could no longer drive it (due to no petrol/oil/gas) - would you still want it? In fact, for those of you out there saving for that rare model Porsche, or ever appreciating 911 or 993 - would you buy it knowing that the ability to drive it is finite? Given that 2040 is 25 years away, most of you are probably at the age where you couldn't care less !! However, i do think it makes for interesting discussion as if the above figures are correct, the humble prestige car might not be as valuable as we all think in say ten years time?
In essence these cars would then become just a large version of a 'die cast' collectable.
04-06-2015, 09:58 PM
#2
our world's economy have become entirely too dependant on fossil fuels to believe that in just 25 years we will be thrust back into the dark ages. If we were truly 25 years away from the point where somebody who can afford to buy, own, and maintain a Porsche, has to consider no longer driving / owning said Porsche, I believe that we would have seen gas prices be on a steady rise.
IMHO, Gas isn't going to be here for (in America) $2.50 a gallon today and tomorrow be gone (barring some natural disaster of course) The simple rule of supply and demand means that as the supply (true supply, not refined supply that is driving up prices today) will cause fuel prices to increase exponentially until demand is minimized.
With that said, the better question is this... at what point will you park your beloved car because the cost of gas has simply out paced the pleasure you get from driving it?
IMHO, Gas isn't going to be here for (in America) $2.50 a gallon today and tomorrow be gone (barring some natural disaster of course) The simple rule of supply and demand means that as the supply (true supply, not refined supply that is driving up prices today) will cause fuel prices to increase exponentially until demand is minimized.
With that said, the better question is this... at what point will you park your beloved car because the cost of gas has simply out paced the pleasure you get from driving it?
04-06-2015, 10:31 PM
#4
Based on what I have read it appears peak oil is still away off, a lot further out than 2040, due to tech innovations such as shale fracking and horizontal drilling. Gas/petrol could always be refined from products other than oil - coal, bio, etc. but would probably be quite expensive.
That said thinking loooong term, I wonder what a 964 would drive like with a retrofitted electric motor?
That said thinking loooong term, I wonder what a 964 would drive like with a retrofitted electric motor?
04-06-2015, 10:58 PM
#5
Based on what I have read it appears peak oil is still away off, a lot further out than 2040, due to tech innovations such as shale fracking and horizontal drilling. Gas/petrol could always be refined from products other than oil - coal, bio, etc. but would probably be quite expensive.
That said thinking loooong term, I wonder what a 964 would drive like with a retrofitted electric motor?
That said thinking loooong term, I wonder what a 964 would drive like with a retrofitted electric motor?
04-07-2015, 05:18 AM
#7
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
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04-07-2015, 10:20 AM
#9
Race Car
The whole peak oil thing was kinda over blown. We have more oil today than we have ever had in the world. Demand isn't climbing the way that they had predicted back when the peak oil discussion peaked...and further, there are huge known oil supplies still yet untapped that would be drilled for of oil went back to 150. Not to mention we stop pumping massive amounts when oil is at today's level, since the economics aren't there. So imho, those that write long scientific articles about oil running out, should share them with the other guys that write long articles about oil not running out...and the rest of us should practice not spending too much to buy a 964, and drive the pants off them till they die. And not to worry about the end of gasoline...cuz gasoline will go away when another alternative fuel that is better comes along. And that's not any time soon.
04-07-2015, 02:10 PM
#12
Rennlist Member
You bring up a good point about the value of these cars when fossil fuel runs out. My estimate, is that in our lifetime we will not run out of oil. Granted, I am 34 years old, at the moment and do not see the US or any country moving away from oil for at least 30 years. OPEC and the oil industry are not ready to pull the plug since we do not have a viable alternative. Eventually, electric will become the standard, but we are 10 years away from having decent range on those vehicles.
What happens to the value of your 964? Good question I feel like any relic/antique what have you, will hold a certain amount of value, but if you are not able to use it? Then what? May plummet I suspect. We are so far away from that happening I only see the price of air cooled cars rising for the next 10 years. My advice drive and enjoy.
What happens to the value of your 964? Good question I feel like any relic/antique what have you, will hold a certain amount of value, but if you are not able to use it? Then what? May plummet I suspect. We are so far away from that happening I only see the price of air cooled cars rising for the next 10 years. My advice drive and enjoy.
04-07-2015, 02:41 PM
#13
Burning Brakes
I am of a different opinion.
If electric or some other fuel like hydrogen becomes the fuel of the future I think our cars will become even more valuable. Of course they will not be daily drivers but more like an antique.
I suspect that within my lifetime and that of the next generation we will still have some refining of gasoline.
If electric or some other fuel like hydrogen becomes the fuel of the future I think our cars will become even more valuable. Of course they will not be daily drivers but more like an antique.
I suspect that within my lifetime and that of the next generation we will still have some refining of gasoline.
04-07-2015, 06:09 PM
#15
Burning Brakes
It would be worth more than today...
I have faith in mankind for coming up with something else that can drive a combustion engine.
We will just switch to the next easiest extract-able, store-able and transportable combustible. Then we will figure out how to modify our engines.
This will happen gradually as fuel prices rise.
Just my opinion.
I have faith in mankind for coming up with something else that can drive a combustion engine.
We will just switch to the next easiest extract-able, store-able and transportable combustible. Then we will figure out how to modify our engines.
This will happen gradually as fuel prices rise.
Just my opinion.